Light Volume Rules The Market Again…

Just as I guessed would happen, the market was flat.  A sell off in the morning, and then the usual slow grind back up in the late afternoon.  This seems to happen day in and day out.  Yesterday the market gaped open, and then rallied up some more in the first hour, only to slide back down the rest of the afternoon into the close.  The end result was a flat day.

So, ask yourself this question… If this Friday kicks off the big holiday buying season, and the government wants you to believe that the worst is behind us, what do you think the stock market is going to do?  Crash?  LOL!  Not on your life!  What do you think a 400-500 point DOW down day would do to the confidence of the shoppers about to go spend a bunch of money on Thanksgiving… and start their Christmas shopping too?

The best we could hope for is about 100 points or so down.  But, I seriously doubt that will happen as the market is dead set on making that 50% fib level around 112.30-112.50 spy.  If there wasn’t any major goal in the cards, then a small down day could occur.  However, I believe the news out tomorrow, on the jobs and everything else, will be “cooked”.  That’s right folks… the government will get out their erasers and fudge all the important data tomorrow, so the market will rally some more.

If we don’t hit that 50% level tomorrow, then Friday, or even possibly Monday it should be hit.  If this market wasn’t so controlled by the dollar, (which the government controls completely), then I wouldn’t put so much effort into writing and focusing about how the news is spun and the dollar controlled.

The technicals do work, but they can be delayed by the obvious manipulation by the government.  Many times when we should actually retrace to a 50% or 61.8% fib level, the government intervenes by dumping the dollar, and the market only sells off to the 38.2% level.  This will eventually catch up to the market, as you can only take so many hits of speed before you crash… and you will crash hard!

But, for now, I still say that we will hit the 112.30-112.50 level before any sell off will happen.  We might even push a little higher intraday to an even level like 113.00?  That will be the ideal place to short for a nice 5% or more pullback in the market.  It should last 1-2 weeks, before a Santa Claus rally starts and pushes the market back up some to end the year.

Red

The Dollar Gets Pounded Again...

Related posts:

1. Market down on light volume? That’s a change!
2. Light Volume Puts the Market to Sleep…
3. Friday Light Volume As Usual…