Archive for March, 2010

The Bulls have certainly been having their fun these last few weeks.  They tease the bear by acting like they are going to let him have a little fun.  This morning was no different as the bulls teased the bear by selling off on the Bad ADP job’s numbers, only to rally back most of the loss throughout the rest of the day.

Tomorrow should be no different as the light volume should keep the market up.  But I suspect that by next week, the bear will rise again!  The bull won’t know what hit him, as the bear is sneaky and will attack from behind.  Payback will be brutal and swift as bear seeks his revenge.

The government is already preparing us for bad job’s numbers on Friday, by releasing the bad ADP numbers earlier today.  They are lowering the expectations by the market… which could lead everyone to believe that the numbers are really bad, or they could “pull another dead rabbit out of a hat” and beat the estimates largely?  I don’t know which will happen, but a good number (from the part time new hiring of census workers) could also panic the market, as fears of rising interests rates from a growing economy come back into play.

Of course if the numbers are bad, then there is no fear that the government will raise rates, but if they’re too bad… then the market may lose faith in the recovering economy and still sell off?  After all, the supposedly bullish rise in the market was based on a recovering economy (all though we all know that it was based on the PPT buying up the market with printed dollars from the Stimulus plan).

So, my feeling is that the market will sell off next week regardless of what the numbers are.  That’s probably why the government didn’t push up the release to Thursday, or delay them until next Monday.  They know that’s it’s really a “NO Win Situation”, and they are hoping that people will calm down over the 3 day weekend.

I think that it’s a perfect time to also release some other bad political news, or global event to blame the coming sell off on.  Blame it on Greece or some other country… but not the bad or good jobs numbers.  Yes, I guess we could rally higher or trade sideways for another week… but I seriously doubt it.  We are now at 7 days in a row of sideways trading between about 1160 and 1180.

We did that back in the first week of January too… and you see what came next.  It was also about 7 days before a fall to the down side.  Looking back on the daily chart, I see that many times the market would trade sideways, in a tight range, for a week or more before falling hard.  Of course we could have the usual bullish Monday again, but I think we are overdue for a sell off on Monday.

I don’t know if it happens or not, but it certainly would surprise a lot of bulls… and bears.  Ask yourself how many bears will go short over the 3 day weekend?  Not many I would guess?  They are so used too the bullish Monday’s (plus time decay on options) that they will wait until next week before getting short.

It’s hard to say for sure what they are thinking, but I’m sure it’s aim is to steal the money from the new retail bulls, and not to allow the bears to profit from the sell off.  I’d say that they want to steal the bears’ money too, but all the bears are now broke, as they stole that money many weeks ago.

Just basing my decision on the number of days sideways, compared to previous moves in the past, I’d say we are within a couple of days of a big move… which have the odds favoring the downside.  I’m probably going to get short tomorrow if the market rallies.  If it sells off, then I’ll probably wait until Monday for the bounce back up.  However, I do expect the market to float higher on light volume tomorrow.  Not much of course, but higher none the less…

Red

As every minute tick’s by, another grain of sand falls inside the hour glass we call the Stock Market.  Eventually, the sand will all be gone and so will the rally.  But when you ask?  The only people that can answer that question are the insider’s in Goldman Sachs and the Government… which are basically the same entity now anyway.

I’d love too tell my fellow bears that the market is going down hard this week, but it’s not likely to happen.  That jobs report on Friday is probably horrible… which is why they didn’t move it up to Thursday, or out to Monday.  They want to give the Obama Gangster Gang (OGG from now on… kinda cool, isn’t it?) the long 3 day weekend to lie, steal, cheat, manipulate, fabricate, and spin the bad news into something positive, so the market won’t tank on Monday.

With that said, I still think we will see some selling next week.  Don’t know how much, as we might only get to 1150, and reverse back up?  Hard to say on that one.  It’s again… all about volume.  Big volume equals big institutions selling… and that means we are going down further as small moves down aren’t enough profit for them.  They need 5-10% corrections to make it worth their time on swing trades.

Of course they still have Hal (their top secret computer trading program) that manipulates the market up and down daily to steal money from the day traders, by front running the market.  Yes, it’s illegal… but who cares?  They are doing “God’s” work, and seeing what trade orders that are coming down the pipeline, just split seconds before they are executed (allowing Goldman to place their orders ahead of them, at a lower price), is perfectly OK in their eye’s.

What’s the big deal anyway?  Stealing a few billion dollars a year from dumb Americans who are too busy watching American Idol and Jerry Springer, isn’t really a crime… now is it?  Besides, they won’t miss it… just keep them high on legal drugs that the doctor prescribes for every little ache and pain they get from such a tough life of sitting in that uncomfortably arm chair… pressing buttons on the remote control, causing their fingers to go numb as they get brainwashed from the bought and paid for media telling them that it’s safe now to go spend again.

Yes, my dear readers, it’s now safe to go back into the market and spend your last dime on some new electronic toy like the Apple iPhone, iPad, iPod, and iUnbelievably that the public is so iStupid!  Needless to say… the market is likely to trade sideways to higher all week, and will probably hit 11,000 on the Dow.

Next week will have a lot of earnings coming out, and could be the bad news we are looking for?  But, you must understand that the OGG isn’t the only one that can lie and fabricate numbers… so can the CEO’s of those companies announcing earnings.

A correction down to that fake print area around 1075 spx is coming… but when?   Thinking outside the box, and trying to think like the OGG, would have me tanking the market in the summertime, and rallying into the fall/winter season.  This is the opposite of what most people are expecting.  I think we can all agree that if everyone is expecting something to happen… it won’t.

So, what if we sold off in April and rallied back in May and June to put in a double top, or maybe a lower high?  Then sell off early throughout July and August… pass Stimulus package TWO in September, and rally the rest of the year.  Just trying to think like the OGG…

What would Jesus do? What would the OGG do?

Red

Signs are clearly pointing to a top being in within a few days at most.  The high today of 118.17 could very well be it?  The Dam is overflowing now and will soon explode, as the water of worry will spillover into the happy little town of the bulls below.

When that happens, you will see a stampede of bulls as they run for the exits… but fortunately the bears can swim.  The news out today wasn’t actually bad, and some of it was good… at least on the earnings of some companies.  That sparked the early gap up and rally, as some good earnings and a small relief of debt worries of Greece eased fears.

But, it was short lived as the dollar didn’t sell off as expected when Germany said it would help Greece out as a last resort.  That scared those bulls who went long before the open.  They were expecting the usual sell off in the dollar to occur, as Bernanke and gang are so punctual in doing it all the time.

It scared them I believe, and so the bulls sold off hard into to close.  Of course that doesn’t necessarily mean that tomorrow will bring more selling, as Friday’s are rarely bearish.  Another flat day with light volume is more likely.  If however, we do get a close below today’s close… then Monday should bring some selling.

That channel must be broken first of course, and it could happen tomorrow?  I would be shocked if it did though, as this market has been so heavily control the last year that a failure tomorrow could indicate that they are losing that control… and that would be really bad for the market.

I would like for it to be another controlled sell off to either the 1115 spx area, or preferably to the 107 spy area where those fake prints are.  Then a slow grind higher in the summer months to form a nice rounded top on the market, with a really large sell off in the fall.

It’s really what I expect to happen… which means it won’t occur of course.  Hold on… let me call my friends at Goldman Sachs.  Opps… I don’t have any friends there.  Well I guess we’ll just have to play it day by day, and not worry about next month, or year.

So, for tomorrow I expect the market to remain in the channel.  If it doesn’t by some odd reason, and it closes below the channel, then we will need another conforming close below it on Monday before I’d be comfortable saying “the bear is back”.  Remember, Monday’s are almost always bullish… so don’t fall into a bear trap on Friday.

What we need is a large down day with large volume.  We barely went over 200 million shares today on the spy.  I’d like to see 300 million, as that’s a clear sign that the big institutions are selling… which means they plan on taking it down further.  That’s when I’ll believe that ”the bear is back”

Regardless of whether it happens tomorrow or not… we are close, as the dam is hemorrhaging now.

Red