are-we-there-yet

Another light day as the market rose up slowly to reach 114.99… just shy of a double top at 115.14 (spy).  Will they get there, or will they start a sell off from this level?  Seems to obvious too me that everyone and their brother is waiting to sell their longs at 115.14, and go short… which is why it’s unlikely too happen.

I think we will either start the selling from this level, or pierce through the top about another .50 cents to 1.00 (5-10 points SPX).  It makes perfect sense when you think about it.  If you sell at this level, the retail traders will be stuck in their longs, still waiting for the double top to get out.  They will also miss the chance to go short.

If on the other hand, the big institutions decide to take it to a double top, and allow the longs to get out and go short, I suspect that they will squeeze those new shorts by rallying higher to 116.00 or so.  Then, they will sell off the market… after the retail trader bails on his shorts and go long again.  Trapped again… that’s how the big boys play the game.

So, tomorrow could either rally on through the 115.14 level, to put in a higher top (and then sell off), or just start selling off tomorrow.  We really need some news event to come out, so they can have something to blame it on.

Yesterday there was a large block of 3 million shares bought on the VIX, and today another large block (1.5 million) of shares sold on Goldman Sachs.  Someone knows something… that’s for sure!  Since Goldman basically “is the market”, the large sell order there is something worth paying attention too.  If they had an average price of $170 per share, that’s $255 Million Dollars worth in one 10 minute period.

Combine that news with the VIX buy on Monday, and I think it’s clear which direction they plan on taking the market.  When is the real question?  Will it happen tomorrow, or will they wait for the jobs info on Thursday or Friday?  I don’t know, but the pressure is building up… that’s for sure.

Do they have enough steam left for a quick head fake to 116.00 area, before the selling starts, or will it be from today’s 114.99 high?  We’ll see tomorrow I guess…

Red