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TNA yesterday went from a hold to a low reliability SELL-IF signal. Today did not resolve that signal, so the SELL-IF extends to tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $59.43, up 5.2% since the buy. The candlestick today High Wave (a great amount of indecision in the market). The last two candlesticks yesterday formed a low reliability Bearish Harami Pattern.

TZA 2 days ago had a highly reliable SELL-IF, but got no confirmation so the SELL-IF was extended by one day to today, but failed to confirm today so is cancelled.

However, the TZA today has a new, not very highly reliable SELL-IF signal. The candlestick for today was Black Spinning Top. The candlesticks for the past two days form a not very highly reliable Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. The TZA buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.51, down 8.1% since the buy.

Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, now down 8.1%

For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 5.2%

Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +3
Hold: GOOG(up 0.1%), GS(up 3.8%)
New Confirmed BUY: AMZN

Transition to Market Positive:  +3
Highly Reliable BUY-IF(2nd day): ERX(3x energy)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 7.5%)
Highly Reliable BUY-IF: SPY

Transition to Market Negative:  -14
SELL-IF (2nd day): UCO (2x oil)
Low reliability BUY-IF(2nd day): DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
Low reliability SELL-IF: DRN(3x), QQQQ, IWM(1x), UWM(2x), TNA(3x), URE(2x), IYR(1x)
Not Very Reliable SELL-IF: DIA
BUY-IF: ERY(-3x energy)

Market Negative:  -3
New Confirmed Sell: AAPL
Hold: DTO(-3x oil, down 12.7%), SCO (-2x oil, up 2.4%),

Comment: Bearish overall, Bearish Oil & Energy, Bearish $RUT, Bearish Real Estate
Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA, Possible Sell of TNA

We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $59.45, up 5.2%.

Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 22 days.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) was up 0.5 % today with TNA down 0.17%. No divergence.

TNA has now been up 5 of the last 11 days. Chop generally. Hard to read.

The high for TNA yesterday was $60.58, the highest TNA price since November of 2008. The high today was $60.26, off 0.5% from that high.

Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 58 to 60 today on a down day, a divergence. A reading of 60 is Good for TNA.

MACD on the monthly chart crossed over to the upside 3 days ago and has been flat since. Mildly good for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle touched the mid Bollinger line and closed below that line. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT closed below the top Bollinger Band. It looks like $RUT may be topping. MACD may be working back up. Hard to read, but may be bad for TNA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s doji candle closed below the upper Bollinger Band, after a close two days ago above that band. The upper Bollinger Band is rising. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.

TNA had a lower high, lower low and slightly lower close – Bad for TNA.

Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $835 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.

1165-1177 estimate for today (12 points)
1171 -1185 actual today (14 points)
Carl was low by 6-8 points today

Trades: no trades today

Grade: C didn’t lose any money