Going Down?

By Red, on July 7th, 2010

After such a huge rally, who’s left bearish?

Well that would be me of course. Today closed at 106.30 spy, and filled the fake print I posted with 10 cents to spare… What will tomorrow bring? I see two options here: One, a run up to 1070.50 spx, to fill that fake print… or Two, we just open flat or down, and start selling off.

If we pop to 1070 first, then the day should likely back off down to the closing price of today… about 1060 spx. That would give us a doji for the day, and allow Friday to be a big down day… that could wipe out all of today’s gains?

OK, here’s a third option… we can all take the Blue Pill, and rally on up taking out the Aprils highs and going to the DIA 118.16 print over the next few months. Yes, it’s possibly… but not likely. Every time Cobra posts a chart showing the liquidity, it’s being sucked out faster then the money in your wallet is (by the government of course).

I find option One or Two the most likely, and give very little odds to option Three. So, should it go up to 1070, that would be a ideal shorting spot, before a huge sell off over the next coming few days. I expect next week too be really ugly, as I believe we are now in a wave 3 down on the weekly chart.

While everyone is expecting a rally up to where ever, to make a larger wave 2 up, with the move from 1220 to 1010 being wave 1, I think 1070 is as far as she going. This ship just popped the nose up into air, before a plunge to the bottom happens.

So, for you bears, the best you can hope for is a move to the 1070 level to fill that gap. For you bulls, you want a small down day to consolidate before another move higher. I also have a print of 112.41 spy, which could be the wave 2 target high… after wave 1 down is complete.

If wave 1 down is complete at 1010, then the larger wave 2 up should go to that 112.41 print before starting larger wave 3 down… which should take us to the Wilshire print level of about 725-730 spx. But that’s awhile off yet, so let’s just focus on this week for now.

My forecast is simple: Thursday should go up to 1070 and then reverse back down to close slightly negative or a doji, or it should simply sell off from the open and close lower for the day. Friday should be a large down day, closing this week out negative.

Red

Last Call For The Bears...

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P end of day analysis
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Thanks for the update San. I think we could go to 1070 tomorrow morning, but close lower. That's the highest area I see us going for now. After tomorrow, I think Friday is going to sell off hard.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

after seeing today's price action some follow up can be expected. But it is already overbought. Let's see what happens

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We have a gap that needs filled around 1070 (plus the f@ke print I have), and that's my target for tomorrow. After that, I think she will sell off… assuming we rally up there first?

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Yes i am seeing some more room for the bulls too. Just saw Dow Weekly chart if it closes above 10000 the next resistance is coming around 10200. I will update the chart later
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Ok, thanks…

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Hackswell

Slightly off-topic… but…

Anyone feel like shorting a bank? I'm tempted… NASDAQ:CSNT (Crescent Bank and Trust Company). It has a Texas ratio of 4.11. Above 0.90 is in FDIC takeover territory.

“The Texas ratio is determined by dividing the bank's non-performing assets by its tangible common equity and loan-loss reserves. Tangible common is equity capital less goodwill and intangibles. As the ratio approaches 1.0, the bank's risk of failure rises.

Every bank that has failed in the second quarter has had a Texas ratio of greater than 0.90. In fact the average was about 5.0.”

CSNT is one of the few banks on the list that is on NASDAQ and might actually be able to borrow shares…
Nifty source of doomed banks: http://investinganswers.com/a/your-bank-one-433…

Does someone want to talk me out of this one?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I couldn't advise on that, as I don't study that area. Maybe someone will be able to help you tomorrow?
Sir Woody Hackswell

Somebody talk me out of this! My biggest concern is the volume on CSNT… and that I've never shorted anything in my life. :O

monicadern

Go for it woody. I will be watching it.

Crashed Gordon

Oh Red you have a delightful turn of phrase and I sooooo hope your right!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Good Morning Gang…

Looks like we are off to the races again this morning. Look out above 1070 here we come.
monicadern

Let's see if this plays out as expected. Wish i could participate!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Me too girl…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, we hit the 1070.50 target with change to spare (1071.25), so now let's start the downhill slide please.

monicadern

yes please. Let's see what happens.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Looks like we're going down for gap fill. After that, I don't know where it will go. I suspect it will trade sideways and put in a doji for the day.

monicadern

not before it sucks more bulls in for the ride!

Iamtheeggman

Hi Monica.

Everyone is expecting a rally and dump. Which leads me to believe something else will happen. I do not think we will get soon, August should start the decline. But that is a guess.

The breadth indicators are all in negative but they will bounce this high enough to get the bears to cover unless we have a news event.

monicadern

good point.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

We could go on up to the 112.41 print before falling again? That assumes that we just completed major wave 1 down, and we're start major wave 2 up.

monicadern

wouldn't that be fun? I think we should get out if we get much above that 1070 #.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, that would be murder for us. I still think we chop around today, going back up and back down between 1060-1070, and close with a doji.

With no news out there to move the market in either direction, it could close out this week about here too? But, I still think there will be some selling tomorrow… how much is unknown?

It would have too get below 1010 to close negative on the week, and unless some big news event happens tomorrow, I just don't see that big of a drop… but I got my fingers crossed. LOL

monicadern

Eggman, do you know where woody is today?

Iamtheeggman

why do you ask me about woody? I am the eggman, not Woody.
monicadern

you are changing all the time – hard for me to keep track!
Iamtheeggman

Monica,

I changed my moniker once because of discuss. thats it. I am not Woody. Quite frankly this is getting tiresome.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL…

Forgive her as she's as confused as I am.
monicadern

ha ha eggman! I will leave you alone. Just teasing
Iamtheeggman

Thats OK. I am an old grouch, like Oscar. You cant be all bad if you like the Beatles!

monicadern

Red, YGM.
jimhobson

I think the markets will rally for the next few days. i am now looking at breaking 1085 and maybe approach 1100.

this is just a prelude to earnings and nothing more. This week has little news to bite on except todays spin on jobless numbers.

Still holding 1/2 of sso and TNA but not buying into shorts until moving averages indicate.

Summation got a small tick upwards so iam watching close.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's my biggest worry Jim (for the bears that is)… there's no news to cause a sell off.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Monica,

Maybe I'm the walrus too… LOL

monicadern

If I keep sitting in front of the computer instead of exercising, I will be the walrus too!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm going to go make me some coffee, I'm yawning too much right now.

monicadern

i need a bucket to drown my sorrows in.
Iamtheeggman

Actually, the song was written to be total nonsense to confuse Julians teachers who thought there were hidden meanings to each Beatle song. Of course, there were not. Kind of what happens here. LOL!!!!

monicadern

That's what makes this site so good!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I seen that too… very funny. That's one way to get back at your teachers.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Actually gang…

I'm am Monica and I am RedDragonLeo, and we are here together… Great song by the way.

monicadern

let's see if we bounce off 106.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones finding resistance at 50% fib retrace levels
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…

monicadern

san, your bearish charts make me so happy!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The way the market is pulling back, it's putting in a bull flag. Not good for us bears. Let's hope it fails.

Sir Woody Hackswell

There is every need to fear, for Sir Woody Hackswell is here! (Have we made millions of FRN$ yet?)

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No, but I feel like I've given away millions… LOL

Sir Woody Hackswell

Well, pretty soon, it'll be easy to be a millionaire… once hyperstaginflation kicks in!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah, as it will take a wheel barrel full of money to buy one bag of groceries. LOL

Sir Woody Hackswell

Unless you grow and can your own food, and brew your own beer!
monicadern

Woody, I will just move in with you!
Sir Woody Hackswell

I hope my wife and kids will be okay with that.
And I didn't say I actually HAD a garden… just that you'd be better off if you DID and could can your food. But I do brew beer!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

But I was going to move in with you Monica…
monicadern

We can all move in together, including my husband, two kids, and cat!
Sir Woody Hackswell

I'm gonna hafta get a bigger house!!! Me and Lucy… 3 kids… Lucy's parents… Monica.. AND Red??? Oi Vey!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Anna might need to come too, as that oil disaster could force a move (hopefully not). She's got 42 cat's that need a home too (4-5 of those are dog's, and the rest cat's). We need a very be place Woody.
Sir Woody Hackswell

Ok… so we're looking at buying a commune. Next… location anyone?
monicadern

montana.
Sir Woody Hackswell

But I want some place WARM! And an avocado tree… and maybe a lime tree, too! =pouts=
monicadern

you jewish too?!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL, maybe I should move back up north and get a farm then…
Sir Woody Hackswell

I wanna move down south and get a farm… Like Mexico, Chile, NZ… I want an avocado tree!!!!!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

As long as I can still afford Corona's I'll move with you.

Sir Woody Hackswell

Man… long boring grind down. Where's the action? Where's the FLASH? C'mon! Up or down! Pick one! GAH! =frets=

monicadern

I'll take any move down and trust me, warm is overrated!

Sir Woody Hackswell

Poopies. CSNT: No shares available for shorting. (And ST says I can't short stocks below $5. )
Sir Woody Hackswell

Mini Inverse H&S forming on $SPX? (1min chart) Or just grinding down?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No much action today, and tomorrow should be even lighter volume. As all the bulls pill on long, and the bears go back into hibernation, everyone is expecting a big move up next week, especially since it's opx… which is generally bullish. But, I disagree. I see a lot of people being sucked in long, and that just might be a bull trap?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

So far, today is just like I thought it would be… a boring sideways trading day. The most important question is… will it sell off tomorrow?
jimhobson

This is going to be a nothing day after yesterday.

Vixes are no where so a little volume will move the markets easily one way or the other

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Yeah Jim,

Nobody is expecting much to happen today… which makes you wonder about tomorrow?

jimhobson

I came close to getting stopped out of my remaining longs twice this am. depending on what happens after 3PM I may bail. the indecision is not good for long trades IMO.

But I still will hold off adding shorts.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well Jim,

The next FP to the upside that I have is for 112.41 spy, and I got it a week or two ago. If you feel brave enough to say long until then you've got a bigger pair then me. LOL.

I have one to the downside that I got last weekend, but I'm not posting it yet (I will when the time is right). It will blow your mind.

You see that we hit the FP from yesterday at 106.20, and again at 1070.50 (from a few weeks back), so do you want to wait for the 112.41 print, or bail and sit in cash?

If we put in another doji tomorrow, then that could be bullish consolidation forming before another move higher next week… but I think the downside print will play out first… and it's scary!

Cash is position my friend. Be safe first.

Johnny T.

Red, normally I just lurk on your site to see what everyone has to say, but teasing us with a scary fake print? That's just mean…Spill the beans already!!! Pretty please with sugar on top?
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL… I'll post it when we start to head down. That way you will know when to get out. For know, let's just say that all those short will be happily rewarded.
jimhobson

I am substantially in cash and will probably not wait for a 112 level.

this is a technical bounce only and who knows when it finally fails.

It did hit 1070 and came off quick. Is another attempt in the cards????

Vixes are not supporting that move at present.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think the 112.41 print is the top for major wave 2 up. But, are we done with major wave 1 down now? If so, the the 1220 high to 1010 low is major wave 1, and major wave 2 should end at 112.41… but what if wave 1 down isn't done yet?

If it's not, then the 1070 print has now be fulfilled and the next move is down to put in another lower low. If tomorrow closes flat like today, then that will leave everyone guessing over the weekend.

Some emailed me, or I seen it somewhere (can't remember?) that 97% of all the traders with an account size of 1 million or more, are now net long. Either they will all be richly rewarded next week, or robbed blind… you tell me?

I'd like to see the sell off start tomorrow, but they will probably wait until Monday to tank it (should this be the high?). They like to release bad news over the weekend and trap everyone.

It's been a long time since we had a really be down day on Friday, so we might have to wait until next week.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Dan I don't know about you but we are in wave 3 minutte 2 hopefully about to end
monicadern

sounds like a classical music piece!
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

hahahhahahahahha like Beethoven
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'm not following the sub waves Anna, but I could see a pop back up into the close today, as the 15 minute chart is oversold and should go back positive within an hour or so.

On top of that, it's putting in a bull flag. So a move up into the close is likely (shake out the last bear)
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

then I know we are going down!!!
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

LOL

You feeling any better now?
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

you are the best contrarian indicator I have ever known
monicadern

Anna, I think Red and I tie!
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

hahhahahha whatever works I say!! ;=)

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

red your right the 15 is oversold though
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Oh my god… ROFLMAO

http://www.twitvid.com/8XRPF

From Mr. TopStep's site…
jimhobson

3:00 the hour of direction????
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Ok, here's the real Mr. TopStep video…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=In7LksREG5A

That other one was hilarious!

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

It was disgusting!!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Sorry… it's was mainly for the guys to laugh at. Yes, it was disgusting.

http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

hahhaha you know I hate distasteful stuff!

btw the 15 might be reset by the end of day

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I shouldn't have posted that it's not for you ladies… sorry about that.

And yes, the 15 could be reset by the end of the day. The 60 is overbought now, and should rollover tomorrow, but the daily is still oversold, and could keep the 60 up for another day.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

not really dear the daily has come way off the oversold area. the 4 hour is actually overbought
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I like it when talk sexy like that… just keep saying those words “overbought”, “overbought”, “overbought”… I'm getting excited already.

Geccko23

Ha Ha!!!! Look at the volume on TZA!!! Big boys are loading up. Maybe some of the trolls can enlighten me. With the reverse split, there are fewer shares yet the volume is explding. Do they adjust the volume backwards also. I need to lock at that

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's for the info Geccko…

It's good to have everyone looking at different things and posting it, as one person can't catch everything. (Hence the reason for the blog… to team up and share our knowledge).
Iamtheeggman

yes!

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

Last hour of trading looks like a narrow range on my daily charts. We'll see.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

A doji today I believe.

IlliniKap

Anyone else have TZA calls that are all screwed up right now? I hate Sogotrade

Sir Woody Hackswell

TPTB engineered this. They bought their calls BEFORE the split, knowing most trading platforms would be screwed up today.

IlliniKap

The EOD ramp job begins

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, that was too be expected. The 15 minute chart was in oversold territory most of the day, so now it's going back positive and rallying the market. Just one big bull flag playing out the the chart.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 60 minute chart has a bull flag too, so it “could” push on up higher tomorrow morning, but should roll over into the close.

If it doesn't take out the current high by much, then that's pretty bearish in my opinion. Tomorrow is hard too call, as it could trade sideways all day without and news to rally or sell it off.

Some good news could push it to 1085 area or some bad news could tank it. But no news leans toward another sideways day.
jimhobson

Nasdaq messed with us all day now look at it after lagging the entire session.

Crazy last hour is the only action of the day.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

FSLR rounded bottom break out, don't short yet.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Went long just about 20 minutes ago ewwwwwwwwwwwh
jimhobson

S&P will close over 1071.

getting hot now
IlliniKap

Completely un warranted rally. Pretty sure it's being manipulated to make it seem like a bullish day, when it was anything but. I guess the close is what counts though.
Kotlasr

The next barrier is the June 28 low of 1,071, followed by the 20-day moving average at 1,074, and then the 50-day moving average at 1,101.
http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

STP ( solar) rounded bottom break out–bullish.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

For this to be real (for the bullish breakout I mean), the bull flags need to push this up to the 1085 area tomorrow. If not, then the market could fall back down quickly.
Kotlasr

I see good resistances at 1071, 1074 if we cross them with some big good news 1101 but as red indicated I don't think before testing lows at 1010 we will not go to 1101 or his fake print 112.6.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

If we go higher next week, instead of lower, then the 112.41 print will like be hit on Friday.

Kotlasr

Red, next week will be major earnings drive and only way I could see 112.41 happening is AA, GOOG, BAC and JPM to beat the earnings estimates provide a nice forward guidance, which I highly doubt – many analysts have already slashed their earning estimates and I feel that is a good indication these companies will deliver low estimates. Also, past few quarters earnings for these companies were not that stellar…. even if they deliver I see sell the news more than a run.. with DOW, COMP, SPX posting a good 6% profit this week.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I see it as bearish too, but in the end… if the crooks don't sell, then it could trade sideways until opx is over with. If the crooks got themselves positioned short today (with the reverse split on many 3x etf's), then they could start dumping as early as tomorrow?

While I don't think they will sell off tomorrow, as it's Friday (which usually has light volume, and rarely sells off hard), they could surprise us all with another false flag event, catching everyone long, and no shorts in the market but them.

monicadern

YGM

Iamtheeggman

Earnings do not matter now. It is ALL about guidance. There were only a few pre-announcements. Therefore everyone will be close or beat.

GUIDANCE is KING!!!!

Iamtheeggman

My GUESS is that we fill the gap tomorrow or Monday on the NAZ then either consolidate or drop. The 15 min chart is still strong and reliable for the NAZ.

CPT nailed this one. I have to give it to him. He blew the right shoulder call but he has made a ton of Robert Dinero lately.

monicadern

Well Red, you were absolutely right about today. Good call!

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'd rather be profiting from them, instead of being short and riding out the up moves.

monicadern

me too my friend.
newbear

I was long spy and apple yesterday and reversed positions, it was painful, I shorted off the open and had to cover again. Just should have stayed put.

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

It's not looking good for us bears Newbear. If it doesn't fall hard tomorrow, I do believe we will go to 112.41 by next Friday. A flat or slightly down day would be considered bullish. We need a big sell off or the bears are dead for now.

newbear

Here is Atilla's take on the market and so far he's been dead on:

2- If there will be a pullback to test the lows, it will come right here not higher.

If this market goes higher from here, it will not come back.
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I agree 100% with that Newbear… it either sells off hard tomorrow, or the market is going to turn higher for quite awhile.

IlliniKap

Unreal manipulation. They got their close over 1070 just by a hair
http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well, it's not looking good for the bears right now. At this point, I'm inclined to believe that tomorrow will like bring about the same as today… sideways trading resulting in slightly up or down close (most likely slightly lower tomorrow).
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com Anna

Long and strong into OPX (feels icky)

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I think you might be right Anna… but let's see what tomorrow first. A flat day, and yes you are probably right. But a big sell off will change everything. I just don't see that happening now.
newbear

Just like 1999.
Iamtheeggman

I think you are good into the gap. Probably a head fake above that. If we go down it will be from there. Everyone is looking at the gap. It is the fib 50 and consolidation pt as well. Thats why I expect a headfake.

But you cannot predict only respond.

Sir Woody Hackswell

How's this? Local top of 1132 to local bottom of 1013 puts 1070 almost perfectly at 50% fib level. TPTB aren't very imaginative, are they?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

The 61.8 fib is about 1085, so we could see that level if they want to push it higher?

Sir Woody Hackswell

You got a F@ke for that?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

No, the FP is for 112.41 spy, which would be the likely target for next Friday (opx), should the market not turn down tomorrow.

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
jesterx

who is going to win the world cup? Easy….these guys are know for lots of great calls, and used their software program to help out.

http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2010/07…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Well Jestex, soccer also interests me about as much as a stale sandwich. LOL. But hey, how about a forecast for the market tomorrow too… up, down or flat?

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

FFIV short.
Hi Red, I just noticed that this chart has some self promotion embedded in it…
I hope it's ok. If not I won't post them like this here anymore…I'll go and fix the banners, then post.
Rex,
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/f…

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

That's fine, you can post it here. I don't care if someone promotes their site, or a their services, as long as they drop by from time to time to chat with others on this site… which you do. So you're good to go.

http://pitch3.zstock7.com/ zstock7 Pro Select!

I don't do this on every chart…
Amazing to me, that 2 shorts won ( gold, retail), and 2 longs won
( education, energy), on the same day.

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com anoopsan

S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

I'm hearing some noise on various blogs that the intra-day VIX low at 24.22 was a fake print. Anyone got a 15 minute vix chart from today that they can post?

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

I'd like to see that too Dreadwin… I can't get the VIX to pull up in TOS charts? Don't know why?

You can see it on Cobra's charts, but I don't know if it's real or fake?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…

IlliniKap

I saw the fake print and it still shows up on my TOS chart

http://www.reddragonleo.com Red Dragon Leo

Take a screen shot and post it or email it too me please.

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