Going Down?
After such a huge rally, who’s left bearish?

Well that would be me of course. Today closed at 106.30 spy, and filled the fake print I posted with 10 cents to spare… What will tomorrow bring? I see two options here: One, a run up to 1070.50 spx, to fill that fake print… or Two, we just open flat or down, and start selling off.
If we pop to 1070 first, then the day should likely back off down to the closing price of today… about 1060 spx. That would give us a doji for the day, and allow Friday to be a big down day… that could wipe out all of today’s gains?
OK, here’s a third option… we can all take the Blue Pill, and rally on up taking out the Aprils highs and going to the DIA 118.16 print over the next few months. Yes, it’s possibly… but not likely. Every time Cobra posts a chart showing the liquidity, it’s being sucked out faster then the money in your wallet is (by the government of course).
I find option One or Two the most likely, and give very little odds to option Three. So, should it go up to 1070, that would be a ideal shorting spot, before a huge sell off over the next coming few days. I expect next week too be really ugly, as I believe we are now in a wave 3 down on the weekly chart.
While everyone is expecting a rally up to where ever, to make a larger wave 2 up, with the move from 1220 to 1010 being wave 1, I think 1070 is as far as she going. This ship just popped the nose up into air, before a plunge to the bottom happens.
So, for you bears, the best you can hope for is a move to the 1070 level to fill that gap. For you bulls, you want a small down day to consolidate before another move higher. I also have a print of 112.41 spy, which could be the wave 2 target high… after wave 1 down is complete.
If wave 1 down is complete at 1010, then the larger wave 2 up should go to that 112.41 print before starting larger wave 3 down… which should take us to the Wilshire print level of about 725-730 spx. But that’s awhile off yet, so let’s just focus on this week for now.
My forecast is simple: Thursday should go up to 1070 and then reverse back down to close slightly negative or a doji, or it should simply sell off from the open and close lower for the day. Friday should be a large down day, closing this week out negative.
Red
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about 2 months ago
I like it when talk sexy like that… just keep saying those words “overbought”, “overbought”, “overbought”… I'm getting excited already.
about 2 months ago
yes!
about 2 months ago
Anyone else have TZA calls that are all screwed up right now? I hate Sogotrade
about 2 months ago
TPTB engineered this. They bought their calls BEFORE the split, knowing most trading platforms would be screwed up today.
about 2 months ago
The EOD ramp job begins
about 2 months ago
Well, that was too be expected. The 15 minute chart was in oversold territory most of the day, so now it's going back positive and rallying the market. Just one big bull flag playing out the the chart.
about 2 months ago
The 60 minute chart has a bull flag too, so it “could” push on up higher tomorrow morning, but should roll over into the close.
If it doesn't take out the current high by much, then that's pretty bearish in my opinion. Tomorrow is hard too call, as it could trade sideways all day without and news to rally or sell it off.
Some good news could push it to 1085 area or some bad news could tank it. But no news leans toward another sideways day.
about 2 months ago
Nasdaq messed with us all day now look at it after lagging the entire session.
Crazy last hour is the only action of the day.
about 2 months ago
FSLR rounded bottom break out, don't short yet.
about 2 months ago
Went long just about 20 minutes ago ewwwwwwwwwwwh
about 2 months ago
S&P will close over 1071.
getting hot now
about 2 months ago
Completely un warranted rally. Pretty sure it's being manipulated to make it seem like a bullish day, when it was anything but. I guess the close is what counts though.
about 2 months ago
The next barrier is the June 28 low of 1,071, followed by the 20-day moving average at 1,074, and then the 50-day moving average at 1,101.
about 2 months ago
STP ( solar) rounded bottom break out–bullish.
about 2 months ago
For this to be real (for the bullish breakout I mean), the bull flags need to push this up to the 1085 area tomorrow. If not, then the market could fall back down quickly.
about 2 months ago
I see good resistances at 1071, 1074 if we cross them with some big good news 1101 but as red indicated I don't think before testing lows at 1010 we will not go to 1101 or his fake print 112.6.
about 2 months ago
If we go higher next week, instead of lower, then the 112.41 print will like be hit on Friday.
about 2 months ago
Red, next week will be major earnings drive and only way I could see 112.41 happening is AA, GOOG, BAC and JPM to beat the earnings estimates provide a nice forward guidance, which I highly doubt – many analysts have already slashed their earning estimates and I feel that is a good indication these companies will deliver low estimates. Also, past few quarters earnings for these companies were not that stellar…. even if they deliver I see sell the news more than a run.. with DOW, COMP, SPX posting a good 6% profit this week.
about 2 months ago
Well Red, you were absolutely right about today. Good call!
about 2 months ago
I see it as bearish too, but in the end… if the crooks don't sell, then it could trade sideways until opx is over with. If the crooks got themselves positioned short today (with the reverse split on many 3x etf's), then they could start dumping as early as tomorrow?
While I don't think they will sell off tomorrow, as it's Friday (which usually has light volume, and rarely sells off hard), they could surprise us all with another false flag event, catching everyone long, and no shorts in the market but them.
about 2 months ago
I'd rather be profiting from them, instead of being short and riding out the up moves.
about 2 months ago
me too my friend.
about 2 months ago
YGM
about 2 months ago
Unreal manipulation. They got their close over 1070 just by a hair
about 2 months ago
Well, it's not looking good for the bears right now. At this point, I'm inclined to believe that tomorrow will like bring about the same as today… sideways trading resulting in slightly up or down close (most likely slightly lower tomorrow).
about 2 months ago
Earnings do not matter now. It is ALL about guidance. There were only a few pre-announcements. Therefore everyone will be close or beat.
GUIDANCE is KING!!!!
about 2 months ago
Long and strong into OPX (feels icky)
about 2 months ago
How's this? Local top of 1132 to local bottom of 1013 puts 1070 almost perfectly at 50% fib level. TPTB aren't very imaginative, are they?
about 2 months ago
I think you might be right Anna… but let's see what tomorrow first. A flat day, and yes you are probably right. But a big sell off will change everything. I just don't see that happening now.
about 2 months ago
The 61.8 fib is about 1085, so we could see that level if they want to push it higher?
about 2 months ago
You got a F@ke for that?
about 2 months ago
No, the FP is for 112.41 spy, which would be the likely target for next Friday (opx), should the market not turn down tomorrow.
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010...
about 2 months ago
My GUESS is that we fill the gap tomorrow or Monday on the NAZ then either consolidate or drop. The 15 min chart is still strong and reliable for the NAZ.
CPT nailed this one. I have to give it to him. He blew the right shoulder call but he has made a ton of Robert Dinero lately.
about 2 months ago
I was long spy and apple yesterday and reversed positions, it was painful, I shorted off the open and had to cover again. Just should have stayed put.
about 2 months ago
Just like 1999.
about 2 months ago
It's not looking good for us bears Newbear. If it doesn't fall hard tomorrow, I do believe we will go to 112.41 by next Friday. A flat or slightly down day would be considered bullish. We need a big sell off or the bears are dead for now.
about 2 months ago
Here is Atilla's take on the market and so far he's been dead on:
2- If there will be a pullback to test the lows, it will come right here not higher.
If this market goes higher from here, it will not come back.
about 2 months ago
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010...
about 2 months ago
I agree 100% with that Newbear… it either sells off hard tomorrow, or the market is going to turn higher for quite awhile.
about 2 months ago
I think you are good into the gap. Probably a head fake above that. If we go down it will be from there. Everyone is looking at the gap. It is the fib 50 and consolidation pt as well. Thats why I expect a headfake.
But you cannot predict only respond.
about 2 months ago
who is going to win the world cup? Easy….these guys are know for lots of great calls, and used their software program to help out.
http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com/news/2010/07...
about 2 months ago
FFIV short.
Hi Red, I just noticed that this chart has some self promotion embedded in it…
I hope it's ok. If not I won't post them like this here anymore…I'll go and fix the banners, then post.
Rex,
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/f...
about 2 months ago
That's fine, you can post it here. I don't care if someone promotes their site, or a their services, as long as they drop by from time to time to chat with others on this site… which you do. So you're good to go.
about 2 months ago
Well Jestex, soccer also interests me about as much as a stale sandwich. LOL. But hey, how about a forecast for the market tomorrow too… up, down or flat?
about 2 months ago
S&P 500 Analysis after closing bell
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010...
about 2 months ago
I don't do this on every chart…
Amazing to me, that 2 shorts won ( gold, retail), and 2 longs won
( education, energy), on the same day.
about 2 months ago
I'm hearing some noise on various blogs that the intra-day VIX low at 24.22 was a fake print. Anyone got a 15 minute vix chart from today that they can post?
about 2 months ago
I'd like to see that too Dreadwin… I can't get the VIX to pull up in TOS charts? Don't know why?
You can see it on Cobra's charts, but I don't know if it's real or fake?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS...
about 2 months ago
I saw the fake print and it still shows up on my TOS chart
about 2 months ago
Take a screen shot and post it or email it too me please.