The Bears Are Back!

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Wednesday update... we came close enough to the 118.55 SPY FP I believe, and should roll over tomorrow.  I made a mistake in yesterday's video about the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as they aren't released until tomorrow morning.  Since we have already went up and got the short term charts all oversold, I now expect the numbers to disappoint and be blamed for the selloff.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiFxWE96Oho)

The charts say we roll over tomorrow, with or without the claims numbers... but the media will likely blame it on them, as they have too report something I guess?  Anyway, I'm looking for selling in the morning at least.  How deep it goes will be based on the data released.  If they aren't too bad, then we shouldn't fall too far.  We got many downside FP's toward the last hour of the day, and most are in the upper 116 level on the spy.  I do think we will hit them tomorrow.  As for Friday... I don't yet?

Good luck everyone...

Red

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And they look pretty hungry to me...  (Is this really an Easter Bunny, or a Bull hiding in a bunny costume?)

Finally, the market had a nice sell off... but will it continue?  Stay tuned for next weeks episode of "As The World Turns"... Ugggh, sorry!  I got side tracked on that last sentence.  Sometimes my mind just takes me off on another trail.  LOL.

So, to finish the last sentence in my video... "under normal circumstances, I'm looking for a pause day tomorrow".  But, (and there's always a "but" it seems... wonder why?), since the Fed's are so hell bent on stopping the market from a natural sell off, I'd say we are going to rally tomorrow on better then expected Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as well as the Fed's Beige Book report.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTHQOfVX2fs)

Too me, it's just going to provide another spot to get short.  Look for the rally (if it happens?) to start around 10 am and end by about Noon (or sooner?).  At that point I'd expect the 5, 10, and 15 minute charts to be overbought.  But, the 30 and 60 will take a few days I believe.

Now, it's going to be more of a "gut feeling" about going short about that Noon time period, as we need to see how the market is acting.  If it's trading mostly sideways, with only a small rally, then we will likely fall into the close and/or Thursday as well.

But if it moves up hard and fast, going higher then anyone expects, then the shorts are getting squeezed badly and we might have too wait until Thursday for the 30 and 60 minute charts to get really overbought again.  That might take the market up to that 118.55 spy FP we got today?

I don't know for sure of course, but those intraday print are usually hit within 1-3 days.  It's going to be more on just a feel for the market tomorrow, as predicting it solely based on the charts is not working in a heavily manipulated market... like the one we live in!

Just remember, sideways trading during the POMO time period equals a "bear flag", and the market should fall in the afternoon, when the short term charts reset themselves and get top heavy again.

But, a sharp move up during the morning session could set up the market for a continued move up on Thursday too... which would allow it to reach that 118.55 spy FP, should they plan on hitting it this week?  Maybe it is meant for another time period?  Hard too say at this point.

Just hang out on the blog and read the comments as usual, and I'll let you know my thoughts when the market gives me some clues.  For now, I'd expect a flat to up day tomorrow.  But more selling is coming, so don't buy into any bullish ideas that this "one day" correction reset the larger time frame charts, and we are going to rally up to new highs now... they are all still very overbought!

Red

136 COMMENTS

  1. Hahahah love the pic thats what will happen if you starve a Bear too long. Oh and Red do you think i can contact you personally through msn or something in live time.

  2. Sure, but I don’t have any account with either of them, or use them. But, you can email me anytime. Or you can try the google chat, as I do talk to Anna on that instant messenger.

    I have my email open all day, and usually response back within a few minutes of someone sending me one.

  3. The last two times we closed below the 10dma we rallied the next day about 2%. Guess what, rally time. Buying at the close was an excellent move………….

  4. RED, thanks for those graphics for my blog, I haven’t had time to digest and act yet……

    Logic seems to foretell a ramp tomorrow….however….
    AUD and Cable are near Person Pivots (I use daily, just cause, that’s what I use)

    took a short on ES based on that.

    Still holding too many QQQQ puts that were having the life and Vega sucked out of them.

    Still in QID, will take a week or two of drops to break even, that sucks.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

  5. Opps… I thought today was Thursday for some reason. I was thinking the claims numbers were out today, but that’s tomorrow. However, we have the Beige book at 2 pm today. I’d love to see that 118.55 print hit by then.

    Since the claims numbers come out tomorrow, and the market is currently rallying… if we do hit that FP by 2 pm then I’d expect the Biege book and the claims numbers tomorrow to be bad.

  6. Wow, if there was ever a clear cut case of manipulation, it’s happening today. The EUR/USD graph is the absolute most hokey BS chart I’ve ever seen. Try harder, Ben! You gotta make it look natural!

  7. Time to short again this fed market, today looks like wave 2 up partially closing yesterday’s opening gap and kissing goodbye to previous trendline.Coming next is a larger wave 3 down. We should selloff into friday.

  8. Since they seem too be in such a big hurry to get up there and hit the FP, I’d say the Beige Book today at 2 pm, and the Claims numbers tomorrow, are likely to disappoint.

  9. currently 1178.13 on the SP 500 with 1 hour and 40 mins to go before that somehow hitting that 118 seems round the corner and then look out below weeeeeeeeeeeeee

  10. That’s what I’m thinking. Maybe we don’t close negative today, but a move down from the high is too be expected. Then tomorrow? Who knows? …but my gut tells me it will sell off.

  11. I don’t think so… the short term charts still don’t look ready to roll over yet, and they still have an hour and a half before the Beige Book. I think they will hit the target before we roll over.

  12. Unfortunately, I think it’s still a bear trap. 🙁
    Initiated small short positions in fear………………

    richard

  13. Hang in there… there’s no way to know if the exact level will be hit, or if the top is already in? I’m just basing it on the time left before the Beige Book, and the charts.

    It might not get back up there, and the high could be in? Hard too tell right now. I’m just going by my gut mainly… which is wrong a lot (LOL).

  14. Same here. Like you, I am hoping that the biege book will disappoint.

    I will keep my fingers cross & hope that this is just a retest of yesterday high.

    Looking at the currency, I am hoping that the dollar finds a near term bottom (3 year support line??).

    richard

  15. The dollar UUP closed its gap from yesterday.Possible scenario is we simply crash with beige book as the dollar skyrockets in iii of 1 of 3rd.

  16. We have huge volume so far today. Smart money must be doing a lot of selling. This could get ugly with end of session assuming beige book disappoints.

  17. I said flat/up, and I also stated that I thought we could go up to the FP within a day or so. I didn’t think they would do it all in one day, but I did state that we’d likely hit it at some time soon.

    And yes, I made a mistake on the claims numbers. I posted that earlier today. Just tired and misread the dates on them and Beige Book.

  18. Maybe so Anna? But we should sell off some first… starting tomorrow I believe. I won’t rule out the possibility that we go higher as they are pumping a ton of POMO money into market. But for now, the charts tell me we will sell off some tomorrow. After that… who knows?

  19. The dollar will hold its reveral. Yesterday was just the canary in the coal mine. Anything that’s “unpecedented” like this dollar move – it took $500 billion to do this back in 2009 – is going to fail miserably.

    Can’t see all those gaps staying open much longer. But like I said before, they just wanna push until the whole thing collapses.

  20. How disappointing. All those Nasdaq stocks had such phat hollow red bars yesterday and they didn’t produce. Apple, only up a buck today, Google only barely up (who knows if still is conisdering the market per SPY on Monday likes to move after the closing bell), CRM with a phat doji. It looks like the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 veered from the overall market midway through the session and put their highs of the day in then.

  21. Very nice rally. Buying off the 10dma works like a charm. Don’t fight this thing. The rig is in. Should see 1200 plus shortly. Don’t fight the Fed…………..

  22. no worries hahahahah it will end one day but for now i will go with milk it for what its worth butttttttttttttttt keep it tight cause if it turns nasty and goes south fast you will be in a deep hole.Buy on fear is good but dont forget about selling on complacency.The longer this carries on the more buyers will be saying the same thing and when everyone thinks it will never fall its (look out below) and the feds will be the ones laughing to the bank

  23. Really like the S&P analysis below, in a bearish sort of way. Notice the relationship between the candle that dips below the DMA and the bullish one after it. What do you notice about all 3 instances? Bullishness decreasing. When the pump-to-profit ratio is too low, the sleaze will drop this market like a wet turd.

    Dollar down fiddy cent after hours, typical forex nonsense. I think Red is right…will be choppy in a bungee sort of way, until the bungee cord breaks.

  24. I’ve got a convergence of esoteric cycles for tomorrow. 741 calendar days from October 10,2008 low, 74 calendar days from 8-8 or 73cds from 8-9, 178 calendar days from April 26high, 78 trading days from July 1 low, 87tds from June 21 summer solstice high, 101 calendar days from June 21 (not especially esoteric but it is an 11 number) and tomorrow will be 10-21-1……To top it off, I was watching the NL playoff game, and the Phillies starting pitcher was wearing 56 and there was a promo showing first a Giants player wearing number 5, and then Ryan Howard who wears 6. Some other strangeness that I won’t get into. (well there was a highway 756 sign on the right field wall) Check some of the numbers appearing in the commercials also.
    I added a gold short and another put at the close. This is the type of chop seen at the April highs.

  25. Red,

    Half Past Human just came out with the next report tonight. Looks like we’ll be getting some type of crash in November.

  26. Maybe Jim? But we did have a 116.69 print show up yesterday, so we might go down to that level this morning first, and rally back up some into the close.

    The claims numbers seem to have had NO effect on the market, so we wait for the Phil Fed report at 10 am to see the next move. The charts still say we go down… at least in the morning session. Don’t know about the afternoon yet?

  27. Well, looks like we finally fulfilled the 118.55 FP from Tuesday (and the bull flag going into the close yesterday). Now we have one to the downside to fulfill at 116.69 (or the 117.20 that showed up in the premarket this morning).

    Don’t know if it’s going to be filled today or tomorrow, but I do expect it to be filled too. The market acts like it wants to go higher and take out the multiple tops around 1185, but it keeps stalling there?

    Everyone is calling for 1200 now, and while we might get it… it’s seems too obvious too me. So we either should fall short of reaching it, or blasted on past it… but which one?

  28. i am now convinced the charts are worthless toys. TA does not work when there are 4 market traders and the fed is the biggest source of funds.

  29. Red,

    Do you have many upside FP’s besides the DIA 118? As a bear, I’m almost rooting for that to be filled so we can finally cross that off the list and start the fall to DOW 8100. In the mean time, the bulls are slapping me around a bit…

  30. I wouldn’t even look at technicals for the equity markets – it’s all about the dollar, which is even more stretched than the overall markets. It’s going to complete a head and shoulders pattern today. It will be interesting to see how POMO money is used tomorrow.

  31. Whoops – I meant EURO/USD head and shoulders…wonder if POMO will be used against the market after the turn…

  32. Something to watch,dollar firming up, possible we could have a short squeeze in advance of G-20 meeting this week-end and a completely different look at the market from now on.

  33. The market is trying to hold on to that lower trendline of support in your chart of a triangle. Once it breaks, we should start heading down to either the 117.20 FP or the 116.69 FP from yesterday.

  34. I should have noticed that the dollar put in a bear flag yesterday and never filled it’s gap from the day before. When market ran up this morning, the dollar fell to fill the gap and fulfill the bear flag pattern. Now it’s rallying off of it.

  35. That’s the key word… “if” it holds? The short term charts are finally rolling over now. I think it will fail to hold and breakdown… but I was wrong about this morning, so I could be wrong here too?

  36. I feel more confident we finally topped this morning.It seems we are in a broadening top formation on daily chart starting oct 13.Support is DOW 10900, but we have a POMO day tomorrow. Again we could have a buy the dips move…
    I’d say tomorrow is a critical day for bears.

  37. Nice action – when the dollar popped 2 cents in its head fake yesterday, oil was up $2, now the dollar is down 2/10 of a penny and oil is back down $2. Very telling.

  38. They show up everywhere, on all the brokerage accounts as far as I can tell. I use Ameritrade, who bought out Think Or Swim. So my chart are from TOS now, but I still seen them when it was just Ameritrade.

    Others use Scott Trade, and many other companies as well. Plus, you can sometimes see them on the Nasdaq.com site at the end of the day, or before the open.

    I’ve seen them on CNBC and money.cnn.com too… but mainly they are seen in your charts that your broker provides for you.

  39. Oscar is a daytrader and it’s hard too follow his forecasts as he can change from bullish to bearish too quick. I used too watch his video’s but haven’t seen one in quite awhile.

    He’s not anyone I follow anymore his time frame is different then mine, and it doesn’t help me any.

  40. The videos concentrate on long term weekly and monthly stats vs short term. someone smarter than me should look at them and comment

  41. I’ve seen him right, and I’ve seen him wrong. He’s no better or worst a forecaster of the future then anyone else. I’d just like to see the charts that Goldman has… you know they are right! LOL

  42. We getting a little oversold now, and we are about to hit the 117.20 FP, so I’d expect it to go back up tomorrow… at least in the morning session. Today could drop a little lower, but the only other FP we have is for 116.69, and it didn’t show up on my charts? It might not be hit, or even a FP at all? Maybe it was just a late fill?

  43. Hey Jim he’s speaking of the 10 year note and that the 1 tick higher rule failed yesterday and that was a sign of reversal
    Go in on puts in TLT babe!! 😉

  44. Well, the 5, 15, and 30 minute chart have all turned back up and will likely continue into tomorrow too. The 60 is almost ready to turn up too, so it looks like the selling is over for today at least.

    Tomorrow could have the market rally in the morning with the POMO money and possibly sell off into the close? This assumes the charts will all be overbought again, but as today clearly taught me… they can stay overbought longer then you think they can.

    So, if your short, hopefully you closed some positions when we got close to the 117.20 FP, as we don’t have any prints for tomorrow yet… but again, the charts say we go up tomorrow (at least in the morning).

  45. AMZN missed on MARGINS!!!! ( means they have to lower their sales prices to get the customer to buy)
    ONLY DOWN 4% in AH, should be down 15%…Margin miss is the worst type of miss, in an earnings report…
    RTH going down FRI, look for the SPY to follow it!!!!

  46. Tomorrow is a major Cramer day. Gold made a new multiweek low for its move. Oil had an intraday reversal along with the euro. Dollar has bottomed and soon it will drag equities down. I have much more but I am going to watch the NL playoff game for more surprises. Phillies should have started their soon to be Cy Young Award winner last night with the rubber arm instead of #56 who hadn’t started a game since the regular season had ended. Halladay #34 will go tonight so maybe that’s part of the ritual. By the way Giants player #5 had the game winning RBI last night. 34 a Fibo number but I believe it has esoteric meaning as well. One super degree higher than 33??? SP repelled from the 1188 area.
    Watch the time in the Blackberry commercials (on the blackberry).

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