The holiday is over now and it's time to get back to the market, which is down about 20 points currently this early Tuesday morning. A big move is coming soon as the both the bulls and bears are getting tired I'm sure. One of them is going to give up and I think it's going to be the bulls. They've tried 5 times now to breakout of that 2940's zone of resistance and couldn't get much more then a slight pierce over it last Friday. Logic tells me it's time for the bears to drop it hard soon.
I don't see that happening today... but soon it's coming. Right now the bulls have found some support from a falling pink trendline. I'd still love to see a fast squeeze above that 2940 area of resistance before rolling over so they can get the bears out first, but with 5 failed attempts the odds aren't good for that happening. We'll just take it one day at a time now. As for today I think we'll find a bottom within the first 2 hours of the day holding above that falling pink trendline, and then rally some the rest of the day.
I'm not really expecting much action today as traders get back to work and try to figure out what to do next. But over the coming days I do think a big move will setup and show its hand. I think it will be a sell but I can't rule out completely that fast squeeze up through 2940 to shake out the bears might happen first... then down. I don't think it will happen that way, as odds don't support it.. but it would certainly fool the most traders I believe.
The higher odds play here is for some more range-bound trading until late this week where a large sell will setup and a big drop start the next day. We could see it as early as Wednesdays close but more then likely it will be triggered at the close on Thursday or Friday. But until it happens we are still stuck in a large trading zone with no clear direction. Have a blessed day.