ES Morning Update May 4th 2020


Over the weekend the futures were down a little more then currently here before the open. They ran into the 50 day and 20 day moving average and are trying to find support there. Looking at the 4, 2 and 1 hour charts they too look like they are trying to turn back up from being oversold. I don't think it means the bulls are off to new highs of course but today and/or tomorrow do look likely for a move back up.

How high it goes is the key I think to tell us if another large drop is coming this month or not. Everyone knows the old saying "Sell in May and go away" so don't be fooled if the opposite happens. We still have that possible FP out there on the SPY of 305.17 and we are still expecting another low (double bottom or lower low is unknown) to happen in July via the Hurst Cycles projections. This all has me leaning bullish more then bearish right now.

The daily chart doesn't even have any negative divergence yet, so again, when I add all the clues up (upside FP's, Hurst Cycles, MA support) I just have to be open to a low being put in today and another move higher this week to possibly hit that FP on the SPY before topping out. The 23,000 area for the DOW will be good support and if it gets there (was close over the weekend in the futures) I do think it will hold. That's the 2750-60 area on the ES Futures I believe.

If I'm wrong and those support zones are broken then yeah, we should start a deeper correction with a retest of the March lows very possible. Otherwise, if they hold, I'd expect another move up to at least retest the recent high last week, but if the charts get turned back up with some momentum behind them I wouldn't rule out a run for that FP. Bears need to throw in the towel and become bulls before a really another deeper move down can happen, and I don't think we are there yet. That's all I have for now. Have a blessed day.


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