Friday was a surprise to me as I really thought it would rally, but SkyNet does what it does best I guess... trick us sheep. This morning the futures are trying to climb higher off a gap down of about 20 points on Sunday night. I'm really not sure what to think here as there's just too many bears short for this market to collapse without first taking them out.
That means a move up above that 3135-3150 ES/SPX zone to run their stops. As you know I had changed my mind late last week and thought that the squeeze would happen on Friday, whereas my original line of thinking was that it would do this week going into the 4th of July holiday. Well, the bulls have 4 days now to make that happen... that's if they plan on doing it?
If on the other hand they do more choppy sideways action and maybe pullback small all week that odds will greatly decrease for any large drop happening and increase for the consolidation to setup another large move up with a double top very possible. It's really a hard spot in the market to figure out.
Different charts and indicators say different things. Some say we are oversold and ready for a strong rally and others suggest we are overbought and ready for a big drop. It's a battle ground between bulls and bears for sure and I'm not certain which one will win? I've pointed out the large blocks of bearish positions taken over the past week or two, which was clearly done by the big boys (smart money), but there was also large buying coming in on Friday down near that 3000 SPX level (around 300 on the SPY).
That could be short term money I guess, as maybe they do are looking for a bear squeeze this week to take out that overhead resistance zone to top out and then start the big drop. I don't know the answer here but I'm still looking for that short squeeze to happen. If it does then I'm a bear in the 3200-3250's zone as that should get everyone long and all the shorts out. Until that happens (or doesn't?) I'm just as confused as everyone else as I've not been very good trying to forecast these day to day moves. Have a wonderful Monday.
Here's Peters latest video...