ES Morning Update August 4th 2020

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Yesterday did continue up as I was looking for on Friday. It stalled at the 3300 level with a brief pierce on the SPX but shy of it on the ES Futures. I didn't do a morning update post yesterday (in case you were wondering?). No particular reason, just didn't have anything to say I guess?

Today though is different as I do believe we are near the end of this up move, and I'm hoping the move down will be the start of the drop into the 3000's, but that's yet to be known... 3160 will be good support, which might be all we see? For today though I believe this early weakness will be reversed back up at some point today with another run for 3300+ likely. This should be the last one, and I don't think it will fill the 2/21 gap at 3328 because every trader see's it, which makes it too obvious.

I suspect that the reason we haven't rolled over yet is the stimulus package vote is holding the market in limbo not knowing what to do, but that's just a guess. The market loves to make turns around news events but it's never the real reason as we all know. It's in the techncial's, and any news event is just a reason to allow the technical's to play out. The volume is very light on these moves up, and there is selling under the hood (so to speak), so a drop is coming, but timing it exactly is hard.

However, odds favor today (like into the close maybe?) or at the open Wednesday. I'd like to see 3305 or 3316 on the SPX, which are resistance overhead. The bottom line here is that any pullback we get will be a gift to go long for the last rally up to the 3600 area into late September or early October. That's all I have for today. I'll post on Twitter if I take a short today, but if we see those upside targets odds are that I will take one... at least into Wednesday if not longer. Have a blessed day.

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