ES Morning Update August 18th 2020

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So far this morning we got nothing, zilch, nada, zero, just a sideways flat looking open. It did pullback tiny afterhour and then went back up tiny, but currently it's doing a whole lot of nothing. A big move is near, like possibly today, but trying to predict it isn't easy.

I'm still leaning toward a fast move up to past the all time high of 3393 on the SPX first, and then a drop of a 100+ points. But right now it could just as easy rollover for the down move without doing the double top first. I was kinda think that the 3412 hit last week was a real fake print and that we'd hit it first, then drop. I'm know unsure what the plan is here as the market seems to be really good at keeping both sides guessing about the next direction.

I'll just add that it is normal for the market to take out stops overhead before doing any decent drop, even if it's just a short term 1-2 day move down. I have to think there are quiet a few bears short right now with stops up above that 3393 all time high, like between 3400 and maybe 3420 or so. If I'm wrong about that then I guess the market won't go up there first and will just drop without taking out the current all time high, and then come back up in a few days or week to re-challenge it and then take it out.

But of course if that happens then next time it will not likely rollover but continue up higher with that 3600 area as the final upside target high. Today or Thursday seems to be the most common days for quick drops that get reversed back up, so lets see if we get that pierce of a the all time high today or not as if we do then odds favor a nice drop into the close today with 100+ points very possible. If not then possibly we see the move on Thursday instead with more sideways chop today and tomorrow.

Odds are very good that a drop like this is coming this week, but whether that's today or not is hard to say for sure. I'll simply be looking for that quick pop higher to run the stops on the bears and that's where I'll be looking to short it. If that move up doesn't happen first then I'll probably miss the move down and just look to get long at the end of the day where it should bottom (low 3300's probably). That's all I have for now. Have a wonderful day.

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