ES Morning Update September 18th 2020

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This mornings premarket action sure looks weak. I watched the futures last night for awhile to see if they were going to breakdown through the rising purple trendline of support but they held all night and into this morning. If that support is broken then my wave count is incorrect, but if it holds we should be starting a move up into Monday/Tuesday with 3500+ as the target.

The market keeps making higher lows but it's failed to get going to the upside and hold it seems. Today will be the test I think as it must breakout or a breakdown is likely next. If we start up then it should be an extra tiny wave 3 up, inside a tiny wave 3 up, inside a small C up, inside medium B down, inside large 4 down. Sheesh... that's a mouthful.

Again, I'm not an Elliottwave expert, so I could be totally wrong. The day to day moves are hard but I try to break them down. The big picture is that this entire pullback should be an ABC drop that ends around the end of this month. I've said that all along and I'm calling it a large wave 4 down.

I suspected it would take all month to unfold as the large wave 2 down (June 8th-11th) was quick and just a one wave pattern (on the daily chart), so that suggested this large wave 4 would alternate and become a 3 wave pattern, which is has so far. My target to complete this pullback is the mid-3200's, somewhere between 3225 and 3275 basically.

For today though, until the wave count is broken, I'll stick with a rally up all day long that carries into Monday and possibly Tuesday with 3500+ as the target. Have a great weekend and always remember that God loves all us dumb traders. LOL.

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