ES Morning Update September 22nd 2020


Yesterdays big drop hit all my downside zones so from here forward I'm looking for a very choppy rally up to 3600+ into mid-late October. There could still be a retest of the low around the end of this month but I suspect it will only be a higher low at this point (if it happens?). Since the market appears to have bottomed earlier then I was looking for it's reasonable to expect it to top earlier as well. So odds will now shift toward mid-October versus late October.

Nothing is easy when it comes to forecasting the exact day, or wave count as you can clearly see. I try to figure out the day to day move but it's much harder then the bigger picture, but today looks range-bound.  It might show some weakness early on with a possible back-test of a short term falling trendline (in pink) around the 3245-3250 zone where it should find support and turn back up from later today.

However, the futures did not quite reach the yellow dashed trendline, so that will be resistance for today if they instead decide to grind up early in the day and back down into the close or into tomorrow.  Tough call on where it wants to go but those two trendlines (the yellow dashed one and the pink one) should contain the market today.   But at some point this week I'd look for a push higher that hits that falling light blue trendline, which I think will also get taken out.

If it hit during normal market hours it should still be resistance. If they hit it in the after-hours or pre-market that's when I'd expect them to push through it due to the light volume, and therefore lighter resistance. I don't expect it today of course but possibly by Wednesday or Thursday.  Bottom-line is the market is very likely to go into a choppy mode with an upward bias as it stair-steps this last rally up for a final 5th wave into next month. Have a blessed day.


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