ES Morning Update November 19th 2020


Futures are down small but were down about 20 points last night. Nothing has changed as far as my wave count. They are just moving slowly, that's all. But that's to be expected on this medium wave 4 due to the fact that every trader is waiting on the election fraud to get resolved.

For the short term though it does look like we are in a small C wave down from the 3637 high on 11/16, and that it should bottom today or early tomorrow for the first wave down inside it... which I'll call tiny wave 1 down. Then tiny 2 up into the close Friday for a pin around the 3550 SPX area due to all the high volume of puts and calls on the SPY 355 strike price.

We'll probably see that tiny wave 2 up continue into Monday morning I think. Then a tiny 3 down afterward. Sometime next week the small C down should end, which will end medium 4 down as well. My best guess for now is that it will end around the 50 day moving average on the SPX, which is about 3450 or so today. But that can change as we go forward in time, so don't hold me too it.

When it does bottom the medium wave 5 up should start and breakdown into 5 smaller waves. This will be the last wave up, with around 3700 SPX as the final target (+/- 20). I have a FP on Tesla, but I'm only sharing it in the room. It's an upside FP and once it is hit the high will be in for not only Tesla but very likely the entire market. I say that because I know they are using it right now to keep the market up. I still think that we'll top somewhere in early to mid December.

Also, I watched NewsMax here last night and one the people for Trumps team was asked how much time does he have. He mentioned that Al Gore took 37 days after the election to dispute George Bush Jr winning in Florida (the missing Chads for those that forgot).  The guy then stated that it needs to done by December 14th, so there's your deadline for the final blow off top high... which is likely where the FP on Telsa will be hit and the 3700 area on the SPX.

The monthly options expire for December on Friday the 18th for stocks and ETF's but Wednesday the 16th (at 8am) for the VIX.  So if we do pullback more next week (into the 3450's?) it could be the same ol' game where the market makers sell naked calls on the VIX (for the December contract) with the full knowledge that they plan on running the SPX up into expiration on the VIX, which of course will drive it down, making them expire worthless... rinse and repeat.  It's like stealing money from a baby (aka, the retail sheep).

Everything is pointing to this time period, so hang tight gang.  Whether it's a few days before the 14th or after is unknown, but the FP on Telsa will mark the high in the market, so that's what I'll be looking for.  That's all for now. Have a Blessed Day.


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