ES Morning Update November 20th 2020


The futures are again about flat, but were down over 20 point last night. Typical of them to work off the overbought/oversold conditions during the light volume periods... same ol' game, over and over. This morning they've aligned the short term charts (60 minute) pointing upward on it's MACD's.

Since today is a Friday, and the monthly options expiration, there should be some extra manipulation going on to "pin" the SPY/SPX at max pain so the most calls and puts expire worthless. A quick look at open interest on the SPY tells me that the 355 and 360 strike prices have the most volume with more on the calls then puts. I'm still leaning toward a close around 355 (about 3550 SPX) to make all those call on that strike price expire.

The technical picture though shows that the upward movement from the low last night should be overbought by the afternoon today, so a rollover into the close toward the 3550 area is certainly possible. The 360 level (3600 SPX) is my second choice but there's still way more calls at 355 then puts at 360, so odds still favor a move down.

I'm not expecting a "fall off a cliff" move as all this light volume movement each day is likely to continue up into next month where at some point we should see Trumps legal team produce enough evidence to swing some of the states in question back to him winning.

Once it is clear that Trump won the election the top should be in and the Flash Crash should follow. The SPX cash needs to take out the ES Futures all time high before this happens. So a minimum of 3668 should show up, but I suspect we'll get closer to 3700 on the final blow off top. Maybe it's 3680 or maybe 3720... don't know? That range is my target though, and while some really crazy squeeze up to 3800 is possible I view the odds of that very, very low.

Ok, back to today. Again I think it will be slow and choppy with some upward movement early in the day and downward movement into the close. The 3550 area looks like the most likely closing spot. Then over the weekend I think we drift lower but by Mondays open we turn back up and open green. But I don't see it as being much either, and it will likely fail to hold the early gains and rollover with that falling yellow trendline as the ultimate goal for the bears sometime next week.

Maybe it hits by the close Monday, or maybe early Tuesday... don't know? We know the old saying "Turn-around Tuesday", so that's my target to put in the low for this medium wave 4 down. We still are in a small C down of an ABC move for this medium 4 down, so I'm just watching and waiting for this C down to end. I'm only guessing that they will delay the bottom of this C wave down into Monday or Tuesday, but the goal is to hit the 3450-3500 area to mark the bottom of this move down.

Could it happen today? Yeah, it could. I'm again only guessing on the time frame. If for some reason we drop today into the 3450-3500 area then today will mark the low and for small C down inside medium 4 down. Then the move up Monday will start medium 5 up, which should subdivide into 5 small waves of course. This will drag out in time for another few weeks most likely.

But at any point it could end once the current all time high is taken out. Whenever the news comes out and says that Trump has went ahead in votes and is the winner the top is very likely in and the Flash Crash should start right away. This could be right after Thanksgiving, I don't know? Or get delayed into the first or second week of December.

You must be ready as there's NO guarantee that it's going to hold up into that December 14th date where all the evidence must be presented to the courts about the election fraud, nor the VIX monthly expiration date of the 16th... let alone the other ETF's that expire on Friday the 18th. That's probably pushing it too far I think.

Anyway, today looks more bearish then bullish with 3550 likely, but 3450-3500 is possible. If a slow drift down to only 3550 then the 3450-3500 zone should be hit either Monday or Tuesday of next week. But if hit today then look for the gap up on Monday to hold and squeeze the bears hard. A move back over 3600 is possible. Have a wonderful weekend and remember that God is in FULL Control.


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