ES Morning Update March 22nd 2021

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The bulls did a good job Friday of holding the rising trendline from the March 2020 bottom last year. This morning they are hanging around that level and trying to turn back up. It's critical for them to hold this level as one it breaks it's going to get ugly. I think most people suspect and feel that another crash is coming, but the market will want to trick them into thinking it's been avoided.

How do you do that? You just ram it up so high that the bears flip to become bulls, and that's the top basically. I covered the targets from Peter Eliades and Oscar Carboni in past morning updates, but here they are again. Peter's longest cycle projection on the SPX is 4103.94-4314.64 from 3/7/21 video, and a shorter term one is 4012-4052 from 3/16/21 video. Oscar's forecast from his OMNI is 4265 for the first target, and he's not releasing the higher one yet. His targets are good for the current year, so that means at least the 4265 should be hit before 2021 ends.

However, I have to think that if we don't reach those targets within the next month or less then it's going to make it tough to figure out if the next drop is going to be the start of the crash or if it's just a 10-20 percent correction, (which would of course break that rising green trendline), that then gets bought up and creates another powerful rally back up into the summer where it will likely backtest that trendline at a much higher level.

That rising trendline will be in the 4300's at the start of June and 4400's into July. Of course even higher into August and September, so if Oscar has some crazy level of 4600-4700 for his second upside projection (which again, he's not made public yet) then it would align up with David Hunter on Twitter who's calling for crazy highs like that and then a 80% crash.

For today though I'm looking for the market to start a move up to retest the current all time high, and this time around the big resistance of 4000 should break, which allows a squeeze up to 4100+ (hopeful) later this week or next. Have a blessed day.

P.S.  Keep in mind here that we still have a valid Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern targeting 4236, as I covered last week when I posted this chart.  I do NOT expect it to get into the red circle area now.  It got close enough to the rising green trendline to fulfill the making of the right shoulder.

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