ES Morning Update July 20th 2021

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We dropped yesterday lower then I was expecting and I went long too early. But finally did appear to bottom and start back up by the close. Today it just needs to hold that low and continue the move back up, which I think it will with the RSI barely back over and out of oversold this morning. If this repeats the prior patterns then we should see a 100-150 point move up in 2-3 days.

Or, if this really is the start of a bigger correction then we'll see it rollover and go lower with this current bounce probably being some kind of wave 4 up with yesterdays drop a wave 3 down. Therefore we'd see a wave 5 down today to complete it. Bulls need to get past the 4280 zone to avoid that I think as that was support on the way down and now it's resistance.

The short term charts support a strong bounce here, as I said, but you never know for certain when the bigger term charts really start to put enough pressure on the market to start a real correction. Maybe it's this time, or maybe we go up higher again and make another higher high first. That's what I'm leaning toward, where basically this is the first big break of the long term rising trendline of support.

So it's logical to think they will back test it (at a higher level of course) and then start a correction and not just another pullback. I think we could see that happen into the end of this month, and then I'd start looking for a top again. Since the first go around fell shy of the big round number of 4400 I have to think we'll go through it this next time around. This again assumes we put in the bottom yesterday for the pullback. I am positioned that way, and prepared to exit if the bulls can't get past 4280 soon... like today by the close, or tomorrow at the latest. That's all for now. Have a blessed day.

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