ES Morning Update July 26th 2021

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This week we have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, so I don't expect much action in front of it. All the short term charts got overbought last week so between now and the meeting I think they will cool off and reset themselves. Meaning that a slightly down to sideway move into the meeting will work off most of the overbought conditions.

A deeper pullback (like say to the low 4300's) would likely get them oversold, but I not expecting that to happen. I suspect they will keep the pullback small, which over 3 days will look like a bull flag pattern basically. Then after the meeting they should do another push higher. Resistance overhead is around the 4450 area, which is where the solid green rising trendline is pointing to... and the dashed white rising trendline. Support is the rising pink trendline around 4360 currently. Below that is the two moving averages around 4325 or so... which I don't think we'll see.

After the FOMC there could be some shakeout move (up or down) and then the real move. I think the charts will be neutral by then, which opens it up for the market to go either direction. It could go down or up after the meeting, but the trendline is still up currently and until that changes I have to lean to another push higher.

Of course I might change my mind by the time we get to the meeting as then I'll see where the charts are really at, as if I'm wrong about the slightly pullback or sideways move into it, and instead we rally up into resistance.  Then I'll naturally look for the market to sell off some afterwards. For now though I simply look at the charts and they are overbought and looking like they want to reset, not extend upward into more overbought. Either way I'm just waiting patiently to see what happens, as another long opportunity should setup into Wednesday, or a short. I'll go with whichever one the market gives me. Have a great Manic Monday.

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