ES Morning Update August 19th 2021


The market finally sold off yesterday, and is continuing to do so this morning. However, the 4hr RSI is oversold now so a bottom is near, then a bounce to reset the chart. I'm not expecting any rally back up to new all time highs though. Just a bounce in a new downtrend.

With the monthly options expiration tomorrow I'd lean toward today continuing down, at least the first half the day, and then the bounce to start late today and into Friday. We all know the market maker love to pin the market where it does max pain to both put and call holders, so a bounce is likely to kill some put's I suspect. I'm still bearish overall here but charts are getting oversold, so a bounce is near. I just tend to think the bounce will be sold again with a lower low coming afterwards this time around, versus new all time highs. We are way overdue a real correction (10%+) and not just some 2-3% pullback.

And with this month of August having a historical pattern for being weak the second half the odds favor that correction happening now, which is another reason I think we are in a correction mode and not just a pullback. As for support, there this new light green rising trendline I drew in that's pointing to around 4330, the the "even number" level at 4300. Below that there's not much until the double bottom at 4224 from 7/19. I would love to see that hit today but I don't have high hopes for it. Most likely it will be that 4330 or 4300 level I think. That's what I see for today. Have a blessed one.

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