ES Morning Update August 23rd 2021


Last week I got too bearish as I really thought we were going to get that wave 3 down and head toward 4300, then lower... but I was wrong. The decline stopped again around 3% and did another squeeze on the bears. However, the RSI is getting up there this morning and is into overbought territory again on the 1hr, 2hr and 4hr, so bulls aren't very likely to do another new all time high this time around.

There's going to be some back and forth this week I think, which will be below the all time high and the recent low in the mid-4300's. That's the only good news for the bears as there should be some down move this week to possibly retest that recent low and allow trapped shorts out. But I don't think it will break and will be a higher low most likely.

This week might be another range-bound one is what I'm saying, with neither side gaining or losing much ground. Today should be positive I think as the 4hr RSI still has room to go up some more and will hold the price up all day. The 1hr and 2hr are already into overbought, so they will be a drag and limit the upside basically.

It's that grind kind of move that we've seen so many times before, but this time around I don't think we'll breakout to new all time highs. My guess is the first couple of hours they hold the market up and try to push a little higher, and then midday do a little dip of 10 points or so, and then back up into the close for a positive day with little movement up and day. Tuesday might see a little pullback to cool off those RSI's on the shorter time frame charts. Have a blessed day.

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