ES Morning Update August 30th 2021


This morning the 4hr RSI has finally touched overbought with the 2hr and 1hr clearly overbought. This will limit the upside today and most likely will cause a pullback of 20-40 points. I would expect the prior 2-3 days of sideways action last week to provide support, which is 4480-4490, and below that is the pullback low last Thursday around 4460... which is close to the rising purple trendline as well.

I doubt if it gets through that level as we know how often the bears fail to get any real downside to start and hold. I would fully expect the dip buyer to come in and try to run the market back up, which I think they will do... but probably not until Wednesday the first of September. That's when we could see another new all time high. I don't expect too much higher though, and certainly not 4600. The charts just don't support any 100+ point moves right now. With the 4hr RSI up near overbought and the dip buyers coming in at any small pullback (like 20-40 points) it's not likely this indicator will be allowed to back off from overbought very much, and certainly not get oversold.

It will likely hold above neutral and below overbought while the market does a series of short lived downs and ups all week I suspect. I would compare it to the 7/26-8/5 period where the price went no where but sideways in a choppy range. The 4hr RSI did the same thing back then, bouncing from just below overbought to just above neutral. Another period to compare it to is the 6/4-6/16 chop zone, or the 7/2-7/14 dates.

That one produced a deeper drop on 7/7-7/8, which I won't rule out as possible either. But generally going into early September the market is bullish, then some weakness after the first few days, followed by strong strength into mid-month. So if we were to have a pullback like 7/7-7/8 I'd expect it after the first few days of September have passed.

Then some run up to new all time highs into at least the 17th (because it's OPEX) and possibly several days after that where we could see a new high like the 7/8 to 7/13 (or 7/14) prior rally. Of course after that you can see the market dropped fairly nicely into the 7/19 low, and it was a deeper move then that prior 7/7-7/8 pullback. This would line up with the "after options expiration" date this September as that's what the seasonality pattern shows for all prior years (Timeframe: The last 20 years of data).

After that low the market typically goes up big into the end of the years, so this coming month of September is their only shot at getting anything done on the downside. Short term (today) I'm expecting these early gains at the open to fade by 11:30am EST and pullback 20-40 points today, and back up tomorrow of course... but nothing big. Just choppy action all week as I've already covered. That's it... have a very blessed day. God loves you... even if you voted for Biden. LOL.

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