An 80-120 Point Down Move In The SPX Could Happen In March

But if so the next move up should be a huge one…

The market looks a lot like the pattern from November 26th to December 5th, 2014.  It first sold off for a couple of day and then ran back up to make a higher high on the 5th right before a drop of about a 100 SPX points.  This suggests we’ll end the down move Monday/Tuesday (the 2085 area is good support) and go back up into the end of next week topping in the 2130-2140 area.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5DVY_-B2d0)

This pattern also happened on September 4th, 2014 to the real high in that area on the 19th.  It topped on the 4th, sold off for a week and then back up to make a final higher high on the 19th before the real move down started.  That one was around 200 SPX before bottoming.

We find a similar pattern (with a small twist) back on the July 7th high to the real high on the 24th.  This time the market dropped again for 4 days first, then rallied back up to make “almost” a double top, but failed and had a big “one day” drop on the 17th before it then ran up again into the 24th for the real “higher high” just before the 87 point drop followed.

2015-03-01_1943

Looking back even further in time I can see this pattern showing up many times with slight twists to it.  Sometimes it did it’s first drop for 2-3 days, then back up to a new high and other times it took over a week for the first drop to end.  And some of the times there were 2 short drops before the final higher high with the real big drop that followed.

However, there were a few “fake outs” where it appeared that pattern was going to happen but it didn’t.  The October 30th, 2013 to November 7th was one such fake out.  It did another fake out shortly afterwards on November 29th to December 9th, 2013 where each time the expected “big” down move to follow never happened.

The November 7th high was followed by a big bear squeeze for several weeks.  The December 9th high did produce a few days of selling but it never dropped big like all the other periods where 80-120 points down usually followed.  That drop from the 9th barely took out the first low that hit on the 4th of December.

After the move up first I’d look for about 2060-2070 area to be retested as that was a triple top area before the breakout…

It should last about 2 weeks I’d guess and then back up to start a huge wave 3 rally of some kind.  Looking back again at the weekly chart and that rising trendline from the 2011 low of 1074 SPX I would expect it to hold again should they break through that triple top zone.  The 20MA on it is at 2042 right now and the 40MA is at 2003… which is resting just about on that rising trendline.

If I had to guess I’d say that 3 weeks from now the trendline should be around 2030-2040, but with February having such a strong rally I’m not sure how far down they will allow the market to drop in March, but if they drop that far it should be over with by the 3rd week and allow a rally to start in the last week to recover most of the down move.

This was a twitter comment I read last week and if it’s a “factual” statement then any early down move in March has high odds of being erased by the end of March.

“Since 1950 the SPX has gained >5% in February only 5 times (1970, 1975, 1986, 1991, 1998). Added to gains in March all 5 times.”

On an “elliottwave” count I think we are in some type of smaller wave 4 down now, that should complete on Monday or Tuesday.  Then a final smaller wave 5 up to about 2130 area to end a larger wave 3 up (that started at the 2042 low).  This would then complete a 5 wave pattern up from that 2042 low to an estimated 2130 area high.

Assuming this larger wave 3 up ends up being around 90 points in length it the following larger wave 4 down should be some Fibonacci level of 38.2% or even 50% in depth.  If that count is right then it doesn’t look too good for the 80-120 points move happening that I’m thinking will occur.  So for that reason I do think that this chart from Tony Caldaro will be relabeled should my technical analysis be correct by seeing a back test of the triple top area in the 2060-2070 area (or Tony says it’s an “acceptable” pullback to still qualify as a wave 4?)


SPXhourly

While I like to read what others have as wave counts using EW I just don’t find it very accurate on the short term.  The gangsters that run this market don’t play by EW rules as we all should know by now.  Try to make sense of that straight up rally from the 1972 low in December 2014 to the 2093 high and give me your EW count there?  Can’t be done in my opinion.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Tony and find his posts helpful a lot.  But SkyNet (what I call the super computer that manipulates the market) is programmed to steal your money.  So it’s well aware of bloggers (and traders) that use technical analysis, elliottwave, fib. levels, astrology, T cycles, etc… to predict the future direction.

Which of course mean…

It’s going to fool you by letting these charting methods work for awhile and just when you think you’ve figured it all out SkyNet just pulls a 180 on your wave count (and/or TA’s, Fib. Level’s, etc…) and has some crazy move out of the blue that no one can see coming.  The move up from the 1820 SPX low to the 2079 high is a perfect example.

I read many tweets about it and hear people say that they’d never seen such a move in their 40 years of trading!  And other stating that it had never happened before in the past!  This should tell you that the more us sheep have access to various charting methods that used too work before the internet the more likely we are to see “Crazy Ivan” type moves happen as SkyNet has to adapt to us sheep figuring out the next move and being on the right side of the trade for once.

Since SkyNet can’t steal the sheep’s money and give it to the bankster gangsters that programed it the computer is forced to go hard in one direction or the other to hit all the buy and/or sell stops put in place by the sheep.  What I’m saying here is that a typical wave 4 down should be around the same length as the wave 2 was (2072 down to 2041 on 2/9), and some smaller Fibonacci level like 23.6% or 38.2% as opposed to 50%-61.8% that I’d need for my thoughts of dropping back to that triple top area.

Regardless of the EW count I’m still leaning toward my forecast of a dip to 2085 area Monday/Tuesday, up to 2130 area and then down to 2060-2070 zone to retest the breakout point that has taken us up to the current new highs.  That’s my forecast for now and I’m sticking too it!  LOL.

Red

P.S.  I installed a new commenting system so now you can use Disqus, WordPress, Facebook, or Google Plus to leave your thoughts on the market.  I’ll set it to default to show the Disqus comments as that’s what I’ve had on the blog since I started it in late 2009.  Unfortunately you’ll have to click on each of the 4 icons to read (or leave) comments using each of them as it does not combine them all together.  There could be some comments under each one so click on all of them to see what’s going on…  Thanks.

Outlook For The Stock Market In 2015

Will we get another crash this year?

I think we’ll at least see a 20%+ correction, but crash… probably not.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDwL7nKP6jc)

I guess if the correction is fast enough you might call it a mini-crash, but the next BIG Crash is still a couple of years off I believe.  I’m looking for an early pullback in January/February and then a push back up into mid-summer, with July being the most likely month to top out in.  What I’m looking for is a move similar to the 2011 drop that bottomed at 1101.54 SPX on August 8th, then bounced and made another lower low on October 3rd of 1074.77 which most elliottwave chartists call “Primary Wave 2″ down with the current rally up since then being one very long Primary Wave 3 up.

So we are looking for a Primary Wave 4 down this year and it should be 20%+ if it’s going to be similar to P2 down.  This monthly chart tells us a lot from a technical point of view.  We can clearly see the MACD’s losing momentum and looking ready to go negative soon.  How long it takes is just a guess but I think we’ll have at least one month close down (probably this January) and then a few positive months into mid-summer before losing the zero line on that MACD chart.  Possibly we tread along it for the first half of 2015 staying between zero and maybe +5 or so?

SPX-Monthly-Chart-01-13-2015

Looking at the rising channel we can see that lower blue line is coming in around 1750 which I believe we could very well see hit later this year.  While it’s possible that it breaks and we go down and hit the horizontal support level just under 1600 from the two prior tops in 2000 and 2007 I suspect they won’t let it drop that far.  Remember, there is very likely one more very larger “blow off top” rally coming (Primary Wave 5) that should top out in 2017 sometime… so I don’t think they’ll let the market collapse too far this year.

Medium Term Outlook

Clearly we have already started selling off this January as I write this post so that’s no big surprise.  Looking at the weekly chart we the MACD’s going negative and price level still inside the rising wedge.  Back in October of 2014 we seen the market breakdown through that lower trendline of support but rally back above it before the week closed out… saving the market once again from a much bigger collapse.

SPX-Weekly-Chart-01-13-2015

We notice now that the MA 40 is around 1974 on the SPX in this chart and that’s just slightly above that lower support line on the rising wedge.  So, if they plan on rallying up to new higher highs into mid-summer they need to hold that zone on a weekly close to avoid a bigger drop.  However, the monthly chart looks much weaker this time around then back in October when they pierced it once, which leads me to speculate that the support line won’t hold this time if it’s broken.  My guess is that we’ll hold it on the first hit, then lose it later this month or early February after riding the support for a few weeks.

By letting the trendline break with a deeper correction they can then have a more sustainable up move afterwards.  It would create a new channel and level of support for the bulls and give them the opportunity to rally into mid-summer to backtest the broken trendline on the current rising wedge, which would of course be at a much higher level by then.

This is the best scenario for the bulls I think as without a decent correction I just don’t think they will be able to rally up to 2100-2200 like they want to do.  Trying to stay inside that rising wedge all the way out to mid-summer (where I suspect we’ll top at) will be a tough feat for the bulls… especially with the threat that Janet Yellen will speak of a future interest rate rising happening in the near future.  While I don’t know if they will actually raise it this year just the hint of it will be enough to scare the bulls and excite the bears.

As we all know the market rallies and sells off in front of any planned events and not when they actually happen.  It’s the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” saying that keeps the market always doing something today in anticipation of something in the future.  This is why the market is always on edge every time the FED’s release the minutes of the latest FOMC meetings.

So from a technical point of view, combined with the fear of some future interest rate hike, it won’t be likely that the market can continue rising until mid-summer while staying inside that wedge.  It’s getting too bearish on the monthly chart now to support the weekly holding that lower support trendline.  This is why I think it will break this time around and then rally back up later this year for the possible backtest.

The monthly chart has support from the MA 20 at 1868 area, which “could” be the zone that we’ll see this January, February, or March before turning back up to rally hard looking for that higher high into mid-summer.  If they don’t allow the market to correct that far and instead manipulate it to stay inside the rising wedge on the weekly chart then I don’t think we’ll see much of a higher high into mid-summer.  At that point I’ll lower the odds of seeing 2200+ and forecast that we’ll end somewhere in the 2100 area with a lot of sideways range bound trading between now and that top.

On the flip side if they allow the deeper correction then I’d expect to see 2200+ in mid-summer with a more steady rally happening along the way as opposed to the range bound wild swings up and down we’ve been having over the last several months.  While this range is over a 100 points wide right now I think it will end if they just allow a bigger correction to happen… as therefore a more powerful rally can start.  Failure to allow the correction means we’ll likely see more of these wild and crazy moves up and down until summer while they try to stay inside that rising wedge.

Short Term

While it’s been a very steady and controlled move down this week the daily chart is getting oversold and due for a bigger rally here soon then the one day (or intraday) moves we’ve recently had.  The short term support is at the 200 day moving average around 1965, which could be hit this week if they are going to do a “flush out” move before bouncing.  It lines up nicely with a double bottom area of 1972 from December 16th, 2014 which should add to the support as well.  It’s an obvious level that everyone see’s and is currently acting like a magnet for the market, drawing it closer every day it seems.

However, we all know that when something it very well seen by the masses SkyNet will usually do the opposite so the sheep lose money again.  So that “flush out” move to that zone should be tricky and fool the sheep so they get shaken out of their positions at a lost.  How will SkyNet do it?  That’s a great question and one that I can’t answer unfortunately.

It could gap down to that zone Thursday morning and reverse back up all day squeezing the bears that are expecting a crash, and continue that squeeze into Friday recovering a large amount of the move down, while making all those bears holding January 16th puts expire worthless and futures traders start buying back their shorts at a lost (which is how the bulls get these huge rallies in the first place).

Or they could just rally it up from the current level staying above that obvious target zone and pushing that thrust move down until next week or the week after.  I’m thinking (guessing… speculating) that a nasty solid (or almost solid) red candle bar close on the weekly chart for this week isn’t something they want to happen as it will then increase the odds of the following week tanking even deeper and breaking the 40 MA around 1974 on the weekly chart.  Some how I get the feeling they will start a squeeze from the current levels (falling short of hitting the 200 DMA of 1965 and/or the double bottom of 1972) and save the move down lower for next week and/or the week after.

I think the 200 DMA will not be the short term bottom before a bigger bounce.  It doesn’t line up to me.  I see SkyNet fooling the sheep with a break of that zone to a lower level.  While I’m sure there will be a bounce from it as the big boys buy it I don’t think it will hold as the low for them to rally up to new all time highs from.  I think that we’ll see a short lived bounce and then another push lower into the end of this month.

Legatus-Conference-01-29-2015

I’m guessing will bottom around the next Legatus meeting January 29th-31st, 2015… which also is the same time frame of another FOMC meeting (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).  Too much coincidence for me to think a big turn in the market won’t happen during that time period.  Therefore I think we’ll bounce this week and hold the 40 MA on the weekly and the lower rising trendline on that rising wedge, and then over the next 2 weeks into the end of January we’ll see a break of that line with a target zone of 1750, 1820, or 1868 being hit.

The 1750 estimate is from the monthly chart as that’s where the lower trendline is on the rising channel.  I give it low odds of hitting but it’s still possible.   The 1820 area is from the October 15th, 2014 low and would be of course create a double bottom.  I give it medium odds of being hit.  The 1868 level is from the 20 MA on the monthly chart and it makes the most sense too me of being hit due to the expected turn date zone of being at the end of this month.

It would also fool a lot of sheep that (once at that zone level) would naturally be staying short expecting to exit and go long at the double bottom of 1820… which brings us back to the current market level today as being in a similar zone of just 20-40 points shy of another expected double bottom where the sheep would again want to exit their shorts and go long.  Since SkyNet’s job is to steal the money from the sheep I find it unlike to be hit this week as I previously suggested.

It’s all about mis-direction as you know.  Anything too obvious to happen simply won’t happen… at least not when everyone is expecting it to happen.  Therefore I’m looking to be fooled as that’s SkyNet’s only way to profit… and it does it very well.  After we rally up next week to get everyone bullish again we’ll be looking for the sell off to continue into the Legatus/FOMC date zone.

Red

 

Will There Be A Stock Market Crash In 2014?

Will There Be A False Flag On November 9th, 2014 To Crash The Stock Market? (updated 11/04/2014)

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=n17FTmLjcpQ)

Here’s the previous notes that I posted back in January…

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)


____________________________________________________

Or Just A Big 15-20% Correction?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi-mqG8gkQM)

I give the odds of a big correction at 95% and a full blown crash of about 50% for 2014…

In the past 3 years all we’ve seen are these small 4-6% corrections and many people think that’s all we are going to have this time around too.  They see the market at or near the 200dma and think it will bounce and go back up to new all time highs again.  But will this time be different?  I think so.  Why you ask?  One simple answer:  “The weekly rising trendline of support final broke down last week and closed below it”.

S&P500-Weekly-Chart-10-12-2014

 

It’s been having these small corrections since the 2011 low and bouncing off of that trendline every single time.  It’s been great support for the last 3 years but it’s finally failed.  This is the first signs of the end for the bull market since the 2009 low.  While I’m sure there will be one more final rally to retest the current high, (which should start this December, 2014 and carry into early 2015) the current trend is down and we should not assume that this correction has ended yet.

My estimate is that we’ll see the mid-1700′s on SPX by the end of November before the Christmas rally begins.  I suspect the Full Stochastic will be bottomed in the 20′s on the chart above by that time and allow a relief rally.  The MACD’s should be close to the zero line as well, where other bottoms form and allow a bounce.  Once that rally starts it should last all of December (of course) and carry into the early part of 2015.

It’s hard too know how long the rally will last as it could be only 3-4 months or 3 years?  It is called a Primary Wave 5 up in Elliottwave terms by others (Tony Caldaro) that do a lot better job of tracking wave then I do.  It only has to have a higher high then the current high of 2019 SPX to be a successful Primary Wave 5 up.  It could simply go to 2020 in 3-4 months or extend for 3 years to 3000 or more?  There is no way to know what the government will do to try and extend the market but we can speculate based on the past.

What could cause an extend Primary Wave 5 up… QE4, QE5, and QE6?

I don’t know the answer there but I’ll say that “in my opinion” the QE programs have exhausted themselves and won’t work to prop up the pig from here on forward.  This pig of a stock market is much too heavy now with unsustainable debts world wide.  It’s like giving a dying patient a fourth, fifth and sixth round of chemo and radiation treatments with triple the morphine.  It might have helped keep the pig alive in 2009 but this pig is dying and no amount of stimulus is likely to work this time around.

What does that leave for the government to do?  I don’t have a clue?  You can see in the monthly chart below how we should have crashed in the last few years but were saved by QE Infinity (also known as QE3 [quantitative easing]}.  Looking at the 2011 to 2013 period you’ll see the market go from 1400 area to 1100 and stop, then rebound back up again creating the rising channel we see now.  Now look at the ROC (rate of change) during that same period.  It’s hovering on the zero line for almost 2 years trying not to fall below.

S&P500-Monthly-Chart-(top-half)-10-11-2014

When you compare it to the level the MACD’s were at during that period, and then look back to the 2007 top to see the comparisons you would have thought the market would have crashed but the government intervened with the largest QE program ever… “to infinity and beyond as Buzz Bernanke would say”!  It looked perfect for another HUGE “wipeout” crash at that time from a technical point of view.

You have the 2000 high with MACD’s up in the 120-130′s, then a lower MACD high in 2007 in the 60-70′s, with the 2011-2013 zone peaking in the 50′s creating a triple negative divergence on the Monthly chart.  Clearly the market “should” have crashed then, but the Fed’s intervened with QE Infinity.  Now they have successfully manipulated the stock market up to historically levels.  The MACD has never been higher in history (from what I read someone else).

What’s all this mean you ask?

To me it says the likelihood of a “Full Blown Stock Market Crash” like 1929 is VERY likely to happen between 2015 and 2017.  The biggest drop will likely happen in 2015 I think as I really doubt if we’ll make some extended Primary Wave 5 up that last for 3 years or so with upside targets of 3000 or more.  I’m more inclined to seeing a December 2014 rally that will look similar to rally May, 2008 that simply made a lower high and then crashed the rest of the year.  This suggests that we’ll top out in January, 2015 and then drop all year.

If the market goes down to the 1700′s area where the lower trendline of support is on the monthly chart then that’s the scenario I see happening… just a one month Christmas Santa Claus rally  to make a lower high in January and then a crash.  If however the market only goes down to the 20ma around 1795.47 on the monthly chart then there’s a possibility that we’ll rally back up to make a “slightly” higher high in early January to hit a “possible” FP (fake print) I spotted on the SPY back on September 19th, 2014 showing 202.45 as an intraday high.  Since we never went that high that day it’s “possible” that it’s a FP signal to the insiders that know how to read it, which “could” indicate the final top in early January, 2015 after this correction is over with and the P5 (primary wave 5) rally starts.

SPY-FP-202.45-on-09-19-2014

It could be nothing of course… or a “real” FP telling insiders the final high for P5?

Let’s talk about the rituals for minute now…

Yes, it’s that time of year again when all the elite satan worshiping gangsters meet in secret (but right in front of you… if you are looking?).  Of course I’m talking about Legatus, where we find every snake of importance in the world going to so they can find out the latest information on how the super elite gangsters (the true Reptilians) play to screw the sheep (that’s you and me).

Legatus-October-Meeting-2014

Their October meeting is going on now as it started on October 8th and ends this coming Friday October 17th, 2014.  I’ve done many posts in the past about the importance of these meetings and how the gangsters like to “turn” the stock market before, during, or just after one of these meetings end (http://reddragonleo.com/2013/02/03/the-law-of-equilibrium-and-past-history-with-legatus-and-turns-in-the-stock-market).  I called a very important top on May 22nd, 2013 primarily based on a Legatus meeting during that period, along with technical analysis and numerology.  That date added up to a 33 when adding all the numbers in it leaving 22 as a whole since it’s a master number.

Point being is that the gangsters commonly have “turns” in the market around these meetings and they use numerology to pick dates.  Having this meeting going on right now and ending this coming Friday tells me it’s likely to be some type of bounce back up wave to retrace possibly 50% of the entire down move from 2019 to whatever the low is… which I suspect will happen Monday around the 1900 area (+/- 10 points).  So “if” we bottom at say 1890 SPX this week we could “should” retrace back up about 50% of the move down.

Speculating here but if we dropped from 2019 to 1890 then we about 129 points and half of that is about 65 points.  So we should bounce to about 1955 area before we have the really big drop start.  I think we’ll hit that level by this coming Friday but it could go up a little more the following Monday to some other Fibonacci level like 61.8%, or 79 points from the 1890 low… meaning 1969 is possible.  First of course we have to find the low to calculate from… which should happen early this week.  Then we can guess on the upside target…

Usually high levels of open interest in the Puts for October 17th expiration…

Since I like to trade options I’m commonly looking at the various strike prices, open interest, levels, days to expire, etc… and one of the things I mentioned a few weeks back in a comment and tweet was the very high level of puts in the 190 and 195 strike prices.  On could imply that it’s insiders buying them up as they know the market is going to fall below that level.  But that’s not usually the case.  Most of the time it’s just speculators that may or may not have seen the down move coming and loaded up short.  However, from my experience the “market makers” will manipulate the market back up above the highest open interest levels to make those puts expire worthless.

High-Open-Interest-SPY-October-17th-2014

So will this time be different?  Maybe?  I just don’t know?  Normally I’d expect to see 50,000 to 100,000 contracts on any given even number strike price and less then that on the odd prices with the .5′s on the end but having 556,194 contracts at the 190 strike price is at least 5 times the normal amount I’m used too seeing.  Then the 195′s have 237,554 on them, which tells me the market makers will have to do a whole of digging in their pockets to pay out those put holders if they allow it close below 195 SPY (about 1950 SPX) this coming Friday the 17th.  I can tell you that these guys are similar to card dealers in Vegas and will lose their job if too many people win at their table.  So you tell me what you think they will do?  I think they will rally the market up to make them expire worthless.  In Vegas some manager would come out and have the dealer move to another table to break up the winning streak.

Of course there’s no way to know for sure if the “insiders” are actually the one’s that are short and know that the market is going down below there by Friday the 17th but certainly we’d expect to see a lot of wild swing “shakeouts” for the retail sheep holding puts.  Then after the market makers sure up their positions they “could” let the market collapse late Friday after most of those puts holders have giving up and sold out at a lose.  Anyway, I’m looking for some kind of rally this week as everything tells me we are oversold short term and due a nice rally.

But after the rally we should expect another HUGE drop the following weeks into the end of November.  I’m looking for that rising trendline of support to be the low are before a bounce, which appears to be around the low 1,700′s.  If it’s only a shallow sell off then the 20ma on the monthly chart “could” stop the fall, which is just under 1800 SPX.  I’m unsure which will happen but leaning toward the lower target just based on the charts and how many weeks we have left before the end of November when I’m expecting a  bottom to happen.

After that we get a Santa Rally I guess…

Red

P.S.  Let’s keep an eye on the Fed’s Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases too as they can add to the extreme volitalite as they try to save the market from collapse on these days.

Outright-Treasury-Coupon-Purchases-For-October-2014

Global Currency Reset Stock Market Crash Or Both?

Is Christine Lagarde fooling the sheep or telling the truth?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jkSp18v0Dw)

I delayed writing this post for over a week as I just didn’t think it was going to happen.  Past history shows that every time we sheep hear something on the internet that is supposed to happen, and therefore we short the stock market, we end up getting screwed when the market rallies and the event date passes with nothing much happening.

But… is this time different?

I really wish I knew the answer there but I don’t?  The last 5 years have been a huge learning experience for me personally as I only started this blog to post my own thoughts about where the stock market was going to next.  I never decided to take the “red pill” and become a conspiracy blog poster.  In fact I never would have went down the rabbit hole if I hadn’t seen my first FP (fake print) back on January 11th, 2010 showing a 97 point drop in the SPX that day when it really only traded in a 5 point range or so.

That lead me down the path to learning that the stock was 100% rigged… and always has been rigged since it was created many, many years ago.  It’s designed to steal money from the average long term investor sheep that doesn’t trade the market everyday but puts in his or her savings into a 401k plan with the hopes of having a nice nest egg to retire on one day.

The gangsters the run the market (they are called the Illuminati, the Cabal, the Free Masons, but they are all the same) created this system so they could use these sheeps’ money to pay for large projects they build in other countries where they find cheap labor to replace the current labor force in the current country.  Meaning that they have the sheep in a country like America pay to have their jobs replaced by cheaper labor in a third world country.

Basically they crash the stock market from time to time to steal that money to pay for the building of the infrastructure of that third world country.  The money they steal from the sheep from their retirement plans being cut in half goes to pay for the final outsourcing of the sheeps’ jobs to that third world country.  So when you hear a president come on TV and say that he is going to help “level the playing field” by creating jobs in one of those countries you now know that he simply means that he plans on replacing your high dollar job with someone cheaper.

The last stock market crash in 2008 was done to pay for the infrastructure of India…

The next stock market crash will be done to pay the infrastructure of another third world country that has even cheaper labor then America or India does.  People there work for a dollar a day I’m told… which means that the gangsters that control the world can put a lot more money in their pocket by paying those people the pay YOU!

If you think they will replace you with a machine or robot you’re wrong!  You’ll be replaced with another human that is less educated then you and will work for far less then you currently make.  The biggest “outsourcing” of YOU is scheduled to be completed in 2017… which means you can expect a HUGE Stock Market Crash to start that year as it’s the LARGEST project ever built, and that means it will be this biggest crash since 1929 as well.

But I’m getting off topic hear aren’t I?

Sorry, but one of the things I always do is just write whatever comes to mind at the time.  That means I go off topic from time to time as the thoughts just pour into my head.  In fact, I never script anything or go back and change any videos.  If I screw up in something I said I just keep on talking and post it anyway.  Going back and editing out the “hmmm’s and uh’s” is a waste of time as I’m just as human as you are and make ton’s of mistakes.

One of those is the penny stock newsletter.  While I’m still struggling to understand this game so I can help all of you make money from it my partner and I are frustrated with alerts we’ve sent out.  All the recent companies we’ve researched thoroughly and know that they all have huge potential.  But it seems that they can’t seem to get going to the upside even when a lot of other groups also see the potential and alert their members too.

However, that’s another story.  I don’t have time to go into details about it now as I’ve got to tell you about what I see happening the stock market right now.  Meaning that this Christine Lagarde video is something I must cover again.  While I did a post on it back in January (http://reddragonleo.com/2014/01/20/when-will-the-stock-market-bubble-burst), and even though the date I forecasted back then was wrong the video itself is something worth revisiting.

I know that in the past 5 years I’ve gotten caught up in this “red pill” stuff and went short the market based on it… only to see the market rally and kill my position, some how this time “could” really be different?  While I don’t have a crystal ball I will say that I’ve never actually heard one of the gangsters (the elite… as in, Christine Lagarde) publicly say something that pointed to an “event happening” and a “date” for it.  Truly this is a first… at least for me!

I’m probably 100% wrong on this call as I feel I’m the only person bearish right now…

Here’s my thoughts… Lagarde is telling the truth as she is clearing saying that we are going to experience a big correction in the market this year.  Why?  Because it’s a “magical year” as she clearly pointed out how important the number 7 is to the elite.  The question is… what is the date she is talking about?  And what is it that is planned to happen?  Will it be a “Global Current Reset” as Lindsey Williams said will happen, or will it just be some other reason for them to tank the stock market?  I don’t know “what” the event is but the date does seem to be set in July of 2014 as 2+0+1+4=7 and July is the 7th month.  The only thing left is the date of the month… which the 7th, 16th, and 25th all equal a 7, but which one?  When combined with the month and year you’ll have “magical” 777 day!

I’m speculating that it’s on the 16th because of this Bradley turn date that peaks on the 16th…

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw)

 

Now of course I could be off and the date could be the 25th, but I must admit that “if” we some how put in high, low, open or closing price on Wednesday the 16th (a 777 day) of 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY I’d be extremely excited about shorting the market as that would be a signal to the “Illuminated Ones” (which I’m not one of but trying to figure out their signals) that the top was in.  Most people don’t remember August 25th, 1987 other then that was the high for the year of 1987 but the crash was of course on “Black Monday” October 19th, 1987.

However, on that date the SPX put in an intraday high of 337.88… which the 88 is of course a master number meaning “11″, but more importantly was the “not noticed” (except by the “Illuminated Assholes”) intraday low of… [insert drum roll here] 333.33!  YES, they put a clear signal that the top was in that day!  Did you see it or know it?  Not likely… in fact I only noticed it about a year ago after I started added numerology in my day to day chart analysis.  Does it mean any?  You tell me… does the March 6th, 2009 low of 666 mean anything?

Maybe I’m totally nuts and ritual numbers in the market are just random events, or maybe the market really is run by vampires called “reptilian shape-shifter”?  People believed in demons centuries ago but modern man doesn’t seem to think stuff like this is real… why?  If they were real back then what makes you think that they some how disappeared today?  If they ruled the sheep back then why shouldn’t they still be ruling the sheep now?  They just go underground (so to speak) and hide from the public, but they still run the show.  In fact, the oldest vampires are probably in the Rothschild family and are the one’s responsible for shooting down that plane in Malaysia.  There was a team of 4 Chinese inventors that held a patent for 80% (20% between each of them) for something still unknown, with FreeScale Semiconductor owning the remaining 20% of the invention.

Now the interesting thing is that FreeScale is owned by the group building the new infrastructure (to eliminate YOUR job) which is called the Blackstone Group.  And Blackstone is own by the Rothschild vampires… so do the math!  They shot down the plane to get 100% of the patent as the legal contract stated that in the event of one of the parties dying the remaining percentage of would be split among the surviving members.  Therefore, if you kill 4 people that own 80% of the patent the remaining company called FreeScale would then get all of that and own 100%, not the original 20% (nothing new here as the same vampires sunk the Titanic too, but that’s another story).

Getting back on track again…

Again, I must apology as I sometimes just drift onto subjects that are off topic and I’m sure you don’t care about that other stuff and just want and update on the stock market so you can make money from it. My thoughts have been simple really… a ritual number should but put in on Wednesday the 16th of 2014 to indicate that an important top is it.  My “human side” tells me that they will take the market higher but recently I’ve been “talking to myself… LOL” for a lack of understanding and I’ve been told to short on Wednesday and that it would be a very important top… and that this Lagarde thing is real.

Personally I don’t believe my “inter-voice” yet, as I’ve only recently (the last 2 weeks) been talking to it (yeah, if you didn’t already think I was crazy you do now).  I mean, come on now…  I’ll be 50 years old (although I look much, much younger… probably the blue eyes and blonde hair) this coming August 10th, 2014 (yes, I was born the year of the dragon in 1964 and the month of Leo… hence the name of this site) and I have to say that I feel like I’m only 30 years old.  Crazy huh?  It’s probably because I never got married or had any kids to stress me out… LOL!

Anyway, this voice in my head has told me 4 correct calls in a row and I took 3 of them to make a bunch of money.  I didn’t take the Monday the 7th call was to get short within the first 30 minutes on the expect bounce.  Needless to say I was dumb for missing out on that call and not listening to my inter-voice.  I did listen and I placed a short on the 9th right at the last 30 minutes of the day.  I think I tripled my money on that call (it was a put spread that expired that week… very risky).  Then I went long at the bottom (missed it by a 1-2 points) on 7-10 as my inter-voice told me to sell and go long into this coming Wednesday the 16th.

However, stupid me closed out my call spread on Friday before Monday’s rally up.  So while I still made about 40% gain I could have made about 80% if I had listened to myself telling me what to do.  This voice tells me to short the crap out of Wednesday’s move with the expected high to happen by the noon time hour.  I can’t explain it but I’ve made a bunch of money on taking the 3 of 4 of these predictions with all 4 of them being correct.  It’s hard from me to believe that suddenly I’ve been in contact with my immortal soul (or directly with God himself/herself… LOL) but I’ve prayed about it months now.  I really wanted to connect with myself through my pineal gland like all the gangsters do to connect to Satan.

But while others have been able to see visions and stuff I’ve seen nothing.  I still see nothing.  I’m probably nuts for even posting this publicly but myself tells me to do it… LOL!  Well, there’s nothing like pouring out your heart publicly I guess.  So I’ll just say again that I strongly believe tomorrow is an important day to take a short position.  I don’t know if there is going to be a “Global Currency Reset” like many think will happen (and Christine Lagarde hints at without saying directly) but the charts are very bearish and even without such an event we should be in a short position.

Here’s the previous notes that I posted back in January…

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)

I’ll point out that unless you are truly one of the elite it’s not obvious to the date of the event or the actual event itself.   It’s only obvious that we are in for some rough waters in this magical year of 2014.   Does that mean we tank in the stock market?  Does that mean we have a global currency reset?  I just don’t know the answers there but I sure do think this market is ready to take a nose dive.  So assuming we don’t gap up 10+ points on the 16th I’ll be looking for some ritual number (like 1977.77 SPX or 197.77 SPY) to be hit early on which I’ll be shorting for a ride down to 1900-1920 SPX area in the coming weeks (or less?).

Red…