From Lindsey Williams To The Shemitah Many Signs Point To A Stock Market Crash In The Fall Of 2015

… But Will It Be Accurate?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RbAJz5nzLE)

As we all know the Elite that run the world 100% control the “Main Stream Media” (MSM) and constantly mislead the sheep that watch TV, read the newspaper or listen to the radio.  But what about the Internet?  Do they control it fully too?  NO is the answer as we sheep have the opportunity to publish our own thoughts on blogs like this or various social media outlets.  However don’t just assume that “they” are still busy spreading their “dis-information” stories throughout the Internet to dis-credit true and factual information as I’m 100% positive they are do that every day.

Remember, their entire “motto” of life is to do everything in their power to steal from you, poison you, lie to you, use you, and kill you off when you are no longer a profitable debt slave.  So you should NEVER assume that even though they are bound to tell in advance of the things they plan to do to you that they will do it in a timely manner where you can profit from it… as the opposite is true.

While I think Lindsey Williams is probably a very good man and truly wants to help people I also think his elite source gives him information that is timed to benefit the elite by “suggesting” though his leaked messages that us sheep go long gold near the top, short the dollar near the bottom and of course miss the entire move down recently in oil.

Without a doubt if you traded from his information you would go broke!

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtN5QqH6LLM)

Of course he clearly doesn’t tell you to trade from what he tells you but we all know that people will still listen to his stories and base their trading around the trend that they expect to happen from his information.  This would again result in losing you money as every thing he’s told us over the last 5+ years hasn’t been correct.  The dollar hasn’t crashed, gold hasn’t went up strongly and oil… well he claims his elite contacts never caused the sharp move down as that was apparently all done by Obama trying to push Russia president Putin.

Well, regardless of whether or not the elite crashed oil or Obama we sheep never seen it coming and didn’t profit from it… so the facts are still the same, “You can’t trade off Lindsey’s information (unless you do the opposite?)”, as it’s clearly been wrong since I’ve started to follow him.  That’s been 5-7 years now I guess.

Since I wasn’t following him when he claims to have successfully told everyone in advance of the 2004-2008 big move up in oil and the fall back down hard into the 2009 low I can’t know if that was timed out where the sheep could have profited from his information or not?  I only know that since I’ve known about him his information has been wrong.

So how do you use this information if it’s timed to get the sheep into the stock market on the wrong side when the prediction is expected to happen?

Simple really… you assume we’ll be bottoming when this September, 2015 Stock Market Crash is forecasted and looking for a shorting opportunity several months in advance of it.  When I look back at the 2011 mini-crash I notice that we had the most powerful crash wave (the wave 3 down) in August and then we had 1-2 months of a wild and crazy wave 4 up before the final wave 5 down to 1074 SPX early October low.

Clearly it was very tough to make any money on the wave 5 down as you would have be shaken out many times as the wave 4 up had so many ups and downs in it that most bears would have be puking their guts out from week to week waiting on that final leg down.  The big money (and safer wave to ride) was being short from late July, 2011 into the early August low for the wave 3 down.  This is the wave I personally want to catch (if possible?) and just pass on the expected wild ups and downs in September and October of 2015.

Past evidence on prior moves down is clearly shown in these charts of the DOW as explained in this video about “The Shemitah”…

I’ve looked a several other video’s about The Shemitah and how it points to September 13th, 2015 as being the “Elul 29″ and just like this one the best.  It’s done by someone named James Trivette, a preacher I guess?  Anyway, I think it’s well worth your time to watch.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu6QWOWat6Q)

Sidenote: I looked up the solar eclipse years here… http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/dates-of-next-lunar-and-solar-eclipses#2015

Eclipses in 2015
March 20: Total solar eclipse
April 4: Total lunar eclipse
September 13: Partial solar eclipse
September 28: Total lunar eclipse

Eclipses in 2016
March 9: Total solar eclipse
March 23: Penumbral lunar eclipse
September 1: Annular solar eclipse
September 16: penumbral lunar eclipse

My thoughts on this forecast again of something bad happening (like a stock market crash) in or around September 13th, 2015 are that it will be a bottoming period, so we should be looking to get short much sooner.  When you ask?  We’ll as most of you long time follows of this site know all about Legatus I’ll point out that we have a meeting this coming June 15th-17th, 2015 and coincidentally an FOMC meeting June 16th-17th as well.

That meeting is the one that many people are expecting the Fed’s to tell the market that they will be raising interest rates in September of this year.  While I don’t know if they will state that news in that meeting I do believe that if they do say it we’ll see a top in the market as traders will start bailing out long before the actual rate hike happens 3 months later.  So by the time September comes the bulk of the panic should be over with… which again leads me to believe it will be a bottoming period.

This also tells me that we should have another big “Wave 3″ down (the crash wave) somewhere before that September 13th “Shemitah”date and/or September “Interest Rate Hike”.  Past history tells us that August is a bad month for the market and if you look at 2011 you’ll see that the biggest move down was indeed in August, not September.

Quite possibly we will top in mid-June and start the first waves 1 down and 2 up from there until late July where another big crash wave happens into August?  Of course it shouldn’t follow the 2011 pattern exactly as that would be too easy for us sheep to figure out… and you know “they” won’t make it easy for us to profit from.  If fact they will do everything in their power to make us lose all our money so they can take it from us as they profit wildly from the crash they created.

What about Legatus?

Upcoming-2015-Legatus-EventsIn that Legatus meeting I’m sure they will make the final decision on whether or not the “Stock Market Crash” is still on for 2015 or if they are going to push it out one more year into 2016.  I don’t know the answer of course but I do believe without a doubt that it will happen before Obama leaves office as they want to blame this whole crash on him.  He will be the “scapegoat” for the coming collapse even though it was planned many decades ago.

These elite are just a bunch of crust old white vampires that will get a kick out of setting up the first black gay American president… which is why they put him in office in the first place I’m sure.  I kind of feel sorry for him in some ways as it’s not his fault for what’s coming.  But they seem to have NO Feeling at all of compassion for other humans and will do whatever it takes to fulfill their sick agenda.

I can’t tell you the exact date of the top or the bottom (assuming the crash still happens) as I’m sure that any date I put out there will (could?) be off simply because I said it would happen.  I’m just saying that if too many people (sheep only, as the elite know the date) discover the exact day the market will top then they will be forced to change it.

I remember back in 2013 when I did several posts saying that we’d top on May 22nd, 2013 because it was right in the middle of a Legatus meeting and a ritual “33” day (http://reddragonleo.com/2013/05/06/we-are-just-weeks-away-from-the-start-of-a-200-or-more-point-drop-in-the-spx).  I told everyone about it for 2-3 months prior to it happening.  I thought it would be the top for the year, and we’d crash from there into a low later that year.  While it did top out and drop from 1687 SPX to 1560 by June 24th it wasn’t the high of the year, nor was it a crash.

I don’t know if they plans were changed or not (due to the fact that there could have been too many sheep aware of the date after I posted it?), but I’ve changed a lot since then in my charting analysis and simply post what I think is possible, but give NO promises of “it will be the top” or “we must crash”… as I now know how quickly “they” can change the plans to make us blog writers and stock market forecasters look like fools.

Therefore I’ll just point out “possibilities” with some supporting evidence that whatever date or time frame I might a forecast for “could” be accurate.   My personal trading method today is “day trading”, and I’ve do very well with this method over the last year or so… much more profitable then trying to forecast which direction the market will be going at a week or two from now.

This is one of the main reasons I don’t post as much anymore.  The other reasons are that the better I get at day trading the less information I can find out there to post on that will be correct in the near future.  There just isn’t enough “darkside information” available that is accurate.  Ritual numbers and ritual dates are too abundant to call everyone of them and expect a turn in the market.

So I just do my best to post comments on whatever the current blog post is, which are there to inform everyone of what I see short term for the market.  Then I re-post via my twitter account.  Sometimes (if I remember?) I post it on my facebook account too.

Why is Walmart closing stores around the county claims plumbing problems and then NOT filing for a plumbing permit?

There’s a lot of posts around the internet talking about the mysterious closings of all these Walmart stores for some plumbing problems and then blacking out all their store windows and hiring police officers (not security guards as most stores would) to guard the place.  Then on top of that are all these military vehicles being spotted going to these stores.  Are they planning on marshall law in the near future to put the sheep in?  If so, what event would cause this?

Walmart Closing Five Stores For ‘Plumbing Problems’

http://crooksandliars.com/2015/04/walmart-closing-five-stores-plumbing

Military vehicles are being shipped to a closed Texas Walmart ahead of Jade Helm? (Photos)

https://www.intellihub.com/confirmed-military-vehicles-are-being-shipped-to-a-closed-texas-walmart-ahead-of-jade-helm-photos/

I know we’ve seen of a lot this stuff before in the past and nothing ever became of it (at least in the “stock market crash” forecasting), but it’s still worth knowing about as at some point in the future I’m sure they will do something bad to us sheep so they can put these Walmart stores to use locking up certain people that go crazy when the economy collapses and they have no job, no home, and no food to eat.

Whether all this happens in late 2015 or they push it out until 2016 is unknown, but I firmly believe it will start before Obama leaves office.  If the Fed’s decide to announce the future interest rate hike in September, 2015 during this coming June 16th-17th FOMC meeting then we should all expect it to start this year.  If not, then possibly they decide to push it out one more year?

However, I certainly get the feeling that it will start this year… bottom in Sept/Oct and rally up into 2016 before they pull the rug out completely and slaughter this fat pig of a market.  Let’s face it… the monthly chart of the SPX looks eerily similar to the 2011 period before a nasty mini-crash happened.

What about any FP’s? (fake prints)

I don’t have any new ones (on the large scale) but I’m still thinking this old one from January 2014 “could” still be in play.  It’s one showing the NYA at 11334.65 high.

nyse daily intra1 jan7

There’s also the old TVIX FP showing 35.9599 from 11/14/2013…

TVIX FP

So not much to say on that subject.  Those prints could both be nothing as they are old and plans could have changed from then to now.  But I wanted to include them should the market put in a top in mid-June and start crashing into September as they could be targets?

I’m still not sure all the pieces are in place for the total collapse though as the ECB is still supporting their markets in Europe with their version of Quantitative Easing and isn’t scheduled to end until September of 2016 (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2015/html/pr150122_1.en.html).  But, that doesn’t mean we can’t get started this year here in America and have the first larger “Wave 1″ down, followed by a mufti-month “Wave 2″ up into mid-2016.  Then the “Super Crash Wave 3″ down into the end of 2016 and probably some of 2017 could happen.

S&P 500 Monthly 2015-06-02

In both the 2000 and 2007 tops and crashes that followed we had a month chart that produced a wave 1 down and wave 2 up before their wave 3 “crash wave” down happen… therefore we should expect something similar to happen this time around as well.  That gives us a strong possibility that it will indeed start in 2015 but get worse in 2016.  So let’s keep our minds sharp and open to the fact that we do have some very good odds of a major turn down this year.

Final Clues: Has the elite already warned us of “The Crash Date”?

matrix-passportAs we go back to September of 2001 we remember the both the movie called “The Matrix”, TV show called “The Lone Gunmen” and the famous episode of “The Simpsons” where we were told in advance of something BIG happening on 9/11.  In the matrix it was shown on Neo’s expiration date that said 9/11/2001.  On the lone gunmen episode it was a hijacked plane that was on a collision course for the twin towers, and finally on the Simpsons it was the cover of a flyer that showed the twin towers in the background with a big $9 to the left of it for the cost of the pamphlet.

simpson-9-11-cover-episodeNo one but the insiders knew what that all meant as I seriously doubt it if there was one “red pill taker” sheep that seen all three (or just one or two) of those messages and figured out the meaning before it happened.  If so, he or she certainly didn’t post it on the internet for all to see (not that many would have seen it anyway as youtube wasn’t around back then).

So I’m not going to tell you what I’ve seen that points to another date of something really bad happening but instead tell you to think like the matrix and go watch a movie called “Lucy” with Scarlett Johansson.  Enough said…

Red

P.S.  Interesting how VERY BEARISH the week after the June 15th-17th is, which is based on prior history.

June-Calendar-2015

Just more evidence of a very important week starting June 15th and ending on “Triple Witching” Friday the 19th…

 

An 80-120 Point Down Move In The SPX Could Happen In March

But if so the next move up should be a huge one…

The market looks a lot like the pattern from November 26th to December 5th, 2014.  It first sold off for a couple of day and then ran back up to make a higher high on the 5th right before a drop of about a 100 SPX points.  This suggests we’ll end the down move Monday/Tuesday (the 2085 area is good support) and go back up into the end of next week topping in the 2130-2140 area.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5DVY_-B2d0)

This pattern also happened on September 4th, 2014 to the real high in that area on the 19th.  It topped on the 4th, sold off for a week and then back up to make a final higher high on the 19th before the real move down started.  That one was around 200 SPX before bottoming.

We find a similar pattern (with a small twist) back on the July 7th high to the real high on the 24th.  This time the market dropped again for 4 days first, then rallied back up to make “almost” a double top, but failed and had a big “one day” drop on the 17th before it then ran up again into the 24th for the real “higher high” just before the 87 point drop followed.

2015-03-01_1943

Looking back even further in time I can see this pattern showing up many times with slight twists to it.  Sometimes it did it’s first drop for 2-3 days, then back up to a new high and other times it took over a week for the first drop to end.  And some of the times there were 2 short drops before the final higher high with the real big drop that followed.

However, there were a few “fake outs” where it appeared that pattern was going to happen but it didn’t.  The October 30th, 2013 to November 7th was one such fake out.  It did another fake out shortly afterwards on November 29th to December 9th, 2013 where each time the expected “big” down move to follow never happened.

The November 7th high was followed by a big bear squeeze for several weeks.  The December 9th high did produce a few days of selling but it never dropped big like all the other periods where 80-120 points down usually followed.  That drop from the 9th barely took out the first low that hit on the 4th of December.

After the move up first I’d look for about 2060-2070 area to be retested as that was a triple top area before the breakout…

It should last about 2 weeks I’d guess and then back up to start a huge wave 3 rally of some kind.  Looking back again at the weekly chart and that rising trendline from the 2011 low of 1074 SPX I would expect it to hold again should they break through that triple top zone.  The 20MA on it is at 2042 right now and the 40MA is at 2003… which is resting just about on that rising trendline.

If I had to guess I’d say that 3 weeks from now the trendline should be around 2030-2040, but with February having such a strong rally I’m not sure how far down they will allow the market to drop in March, but if they drop that far it should be over with by the 3rd week and allow a rally to start in the last week to recover most of the down move.

This was a twitter comment I read last week and if it’s a “factual” statement then any early down move in March has high odds of being erased by the end of March.

“Since 1950 the SPX has gained >5% in February only 5 times (1970, 1975, 1986, 1991, 1998). Added to gains in March all 5 times.”

On an “elliottwave” count I think we are in some type of smaller wave 4 down now, that should complete on Monday or Tuesday.  Then a final smaller wave 5 up to about 2130 area to end a larger wave 3 up (that started at the 2042 low).  This would then complete a 5 wave pattern up from that 2042 low to an estimated 2130 area high.

Assuming this larger wave 3 up ends up being around 90 points in length it the following larger wave 4 down should be some Fibonacci level of 38.2% or even 50% in depth.  If that count is right then it doesn’t look too good for the 80-120 points move happening that I’m thinking will occur.  So for that reason I do think that this chart from Tony Caldaro will be relabeled should my technical analysis be correct by seeing a back test of the triple top area in the 2060-2070 area (or Tony says it’s an “acceptable” pullback to still qualify as a wave 4?)


SPXhourly

While I like to read what others have as wave counts using EW I just don’t find it very accurate on the short term.  The gangsters that run this market don’t play by EW rules as we all should know by now.  Try to make sense of that straight up rally from the 1972 low in December 2014 to the 2093 high and give me your EW count there?  Can’t be done in my opinion.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Tony and find his posts helpful a lot.  But SkyNet (what I call the super computer that manipulates the market) is programmed to steal your money.  So it’s well aware of bloggers (and traders) that use technical analysis, elliottwave, fib. levels, astrology, T cycles, etc… to predict the future direction.

Which of course mean…

It’s going to fool you by letting these charting methods work for awhile and just when you think you’ve figured it all out SkyNet just pulls a 180 on your wave count (and/or TA’s, Fib. Level’s, etc…) and has some crazy move out of the blue that no one can see coming.  The move up from the 1820 SPX low to the 2079 high is a perfect example.

I read many tweets about it and hear people say that they’d never seen such a move in their 40 years of trading!  And other stating that it had never happened before in the past!  This should tell you that the more us sheep have access to various charting methods that used too work before the internet the more likely we are to see “Crazy Ivan” type moves happen as SkyNet has to adapt to us sheep figuring out the next move and being on the right side of the trade for once.

Since SkyNet can’t steal the sheep’s money and give it to the bankster gangsters that programed it the computer is forced to go hard in one direction or the other to hit all the buy and/or sell stops put in place by the sheep.  What I’m saying here is that a typical wave 4 down should be around the same length as the wave 2 was (2072 down to 2041 on 2/9), and some smaller Fibonacci level like 23.6% or 38.2% as opposed to 50%-61.8% that I’d need for my thoughts of dropping back to that triple top area.

Regardless of the EW count I’m still leaning toward my forecast of a dip to 2085 area Monday/Tuesday, up to 2130 area and then down to 2060-2070 zone to retest the breakout point that has taken us up to the current new highs.  That’s my forecast for now and I’m sticking too it!  LOL.

Red

P.S.  I installed a new commenting system so now you can use Disqus, WordPress, Facebook, or Google Plus to leave your thoughts on the market.  I’ll set it to default to show the Disqus comments as that’s what I’ve had on the blog since I started it in late 2009.  Unfortunately you’ll have to click on each of the 4 icons to read (or leave) comments using each of them as it does not combine them all together.  There could be some comments under each one so click on all of them to see what’s going on…  Thanks.

Outlook For The Stock Market In 2015

Will we get another crash this year?

I think we’ll at least see a 20%+ correction, but crash… probably not.

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDwL7nKP6jc)

I guess if the correction is fast enough you might call it a mini-crash, but the next BIG Crash is still a couple of years off I believe.  I’m looking for an early pullback in January/February and then a push back up into mid-summer, with July being the most likely month to top out in.  What I’m looking for is a move similar to the 2011 drop that bottomed at 1101.54 SPX on August 8th, then bounced and made another lower low on October 3rd of 1074.77 which most elliottwave chartists call “Primary Wave 2″ down with the current rally up since then being one very long Primary Wave 3 up.

So we are looking for a Primary Wave 4 down this year and it should be 20%+ if it’s going to be similar to P2 down.  This monthly chart tells us a lot from a technical point of view.  We can clearly see the MACD’s losing momentum and looking ready to go negative soon.  How long it takes is just a guess but I think we’ll have at least one month close down (probably this January) and then a few positive months into mid-summer before losing the zero line on that MACD chart.  Possibly we tread along it for the first half of 2015 staying between zero and maybe +5 or so?

SPX-Monthly-Chart-01-13-2015

Looking at the rising channel we can see that lower blue line is coming in around 1750 which I believe we could very well see hit later this year.  While it’s possible that it breaks and we go down and hit the horizontal support level just under 1600 from the two prior tops in 2000 and 2007 I suspect they won’t let it drop that far.  Remember, there is very likely one more very larger “blow off top” rally coming (Primary Wave 5) that should top out in 2017 sometime… so I don’t think they’ll let the market collapse too far this year.

Medium Term Outlook

Clearly we have already started selling off this January as I write this post so that’s no big surprise.  Looking at the weekly chart we the MACD’s going negative and price level still inside the rising wedge.  Back in October of 2014 we seen the market breakdown through that lower trendline of support but rally back above it before the week closed out… saving the market once again from a much bigger collapse.

SPX-Weekly-Chart-01-13-2015

We notice now that the MA 40 is around 1974 on the SPX in this chart and that’s just slightly above that lower support line on the rising wedge.  So, if they plan on rallying up to new higher highs into mid-summer they need to hold that zone on a weekly close to avoid a bigger drop.  However, the monthly chart looks much weaker this time around then back in October when they pierced it once, which leads me to speculate that the support line won’t hold this time if it’s broken.  My guess is that we’ll hold it on the first hit, then lose it later this month or early February after riding the support for a few weeks.

By letting the trendline break with a deeper correction they can then have a more sustainable up move afterwards.  It would create a new channel and level of support for the bulls and give them the opportunity to rally into mid-summer to backtest the broken trendline on the current rising wedge, which would of course be at a much higher level by then.

This is the best scenario for the bulls I think as without a decent correction I just don’t think they will be able to rally up to 2100-2200 like they want to do.  Trying to stay inside that rising wedge all the way out to mid-summer (where I suspect we’ll top at) will be a tough feat for the bulls… especially with the threat that Janet Yellen will speak of a future interest rate rising happening in the near future.  While I don’t know if they will actually raise it this year just the hint of it will be enough to scare the bulls and excite the bears.

As we all know the market rallies and sells off in front of any planned events and not when they actually happen.  It’s the old “sell the rumor, buy the news” saying that keeps the market always doing something today in anticipation of something in the future.  This is why the market is always on edge every time the FED’s release the minutes of the latest FOMC meetings.

So from a technical point of view, combined with the fear of some future interest rate hike, it won’t be likely that the market can continue rising until mid-summer while staying inside that wedge.  It’s getting too bearish on the monthly chart now to support the weekly holding that lower support trendline.  This is why I think it will break this time around and then rally back up later this year for the possible backtest.

The monthly chart has support from the MA 20 at 1868 area, which “could” be the zone that we’ll see this January, February, or March before turning back up to rally hard looking for that higher high into mid-summer.  If they don’t allow the market to correct that far and instead manipulate it to stay inside the rising wedge on the weekly chart then I don’t think we’ll see much of a higher high into mid-summer.  At that point I’ll lower the odds of seeing 2200+ and forecast that we’ll end somewhere in the 2100 area with a lot of sideways range bound trading between now and that top.

On the flip side if they allow the deeper correction then I’d expect to see 2200+ in mid-summer with a more steady rally happening along the way as opposed to the range bound wild swings up and down we’ve been having over the last several months.  While this range is over a 100 points wide right now I think it will end if they just allow a bigger correction to happen… as therefore a more powerful rally can start.  Failure to allow the correction means we’ll likely see more of these wild and crazy moves up and down until summer while they try to stay inside that rising wedge.

Short Term

While it’s been a very steady and controlled move down this week the daily chart is getting oversold and due for a bigger rally here soon then the one day (or intraday) moves we’ve recently had.  The short term support is at the 200 day moving average around 1965, which could be hit this week if they are going to do a “flush out” move before bouncing.  It lines up nicely with a double bottom area of 1972 from December 16th, 2014 which should add to the support as well.  It’s an obvious level that everyone see’s and is currently acting like a magnet for the market, drawing it closer every day it seems.

However, we all know that when something it very well seen by the masses SkyNet will usually do the opposite so the sheep lose money again.  So that “flush out” move to that zone should be tricky and fool the sheep so they get shaken out of their positions at a lost.  How will SkyNet do it?  That’s a great question and one that I can’t answer unfortunately.

It could gap down to that zone Thursday morning and reverse back up all day squeezing the bears that are expecting a crash, and continue that squeeze into Friday recovering a large amount of the move down, while making all those bears holding January 16th puts expire worthless and futures traders start buying back their shorts at a lost (which is how the bulls get these huge rallies in the first place).

Or they could just rally it up from the current level staying above that obvious target zone and pushing that thrust move down until next week or the week after.  I’m thinking (guessing… speculating) that a nasty solid (or almost solid) red candle bar close on the weekly chart for this week isn’t something they want to happen as it will then increase the odds of the following week tanking even deeper and breaking the 40 MA around 1974 on the weekly chart.  Some how I get the feeling they will start a squeeze from the current levels (falling short of hitting the 200 DMA of 1965 and/or the double bottom of 1972) and save the move down lower for next week and/or the week after.

I think the 200 DMA will not be the short term bottom before a bigger bounce.  It doesn’t line up to me.  I see SkyNet fooling the sheep with a break of that zone to a lower level.  While I’m sure there will be a bounce from it as the big boys buy it I don’t think it will hold as the low for them to rally up to new all time highs from.  I think that we’ll see a short lived bounce and then another push lower into the end of this month.

Legatus-Conference-01-29-2015

I’m guessing will bottom around the next Legatus meeting January 29th-31st, 2015… which also is the same time frame of another FOMC meeting (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).  Too much coincidence for me to think a big turn in the market won’t happen during that time period.  Therefore I think we’ll bounce this week and hold the 40 MA on the weekly and the lower rising trendline on that rising wedge, and then over the next 2 weeks into the end of January we’ll see a break of that line with a target zone of 1750, 1820, or 1868 being hit.

The 1750 estimate is from the monthly chart as that’s where the lower trendline is on the rising channel.  I give it low odds of hitting but it’s still possible.   The 1820 area is from the October 15th, 2014 low and would be of course create a double bottom.  I give it medium odds of being hit.  The 1868 level is from the 20 MA on the monthly chart and it makes the most sense too me of being hit due to the expected turn date zone of being at the end of this month.

It would also fool a lot of sheep that (once at that zone level) would naturally be staying short expecting to exit and go long at the double bottom of 1820… which brings us back to the current market level today as being in a similar zone of just 20-40 points shy of another expected double bottom where the sheep would again want to exit their shorts and go long.  Since SkyNet’s job is to steal the money from the sheep I find it unlike to be hit this week as I previously suggested.

It’s all about mis-direction as you know.  Anything too obvious to happen simply won’t happen… at least not when everyone is expecting it to happen.  Therefore I’m looking to be fooled as that’s SkyNet’s only way to profit… and it does it very well.  After we rally up next week to get everyone bullish again we’ll be looking for the sell off to continue into the Legatus/FOMC date zone.

Red

 

Will There Be A Stock Market Crash In 2014?

Will There Be A False Flag On November 9th, 2014 To Crash The Stock Market? (updated 11/04/2014)

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=n17FTmLjcpQ)

Here’s the previous notes that I posted back in January…

  • 2014 will be a magic year (meaning what?  will you pull a rabbit out your hat?  will you steal money from the sheep without them seeing you do it?)
  • 100th anniversary of the first world war in 1914 (strangely when I researched what happened to the DOW back then it was closed down for several months due to the first world war starting.  are we expecting the same here? REFERENCE: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/most-long-term-charts-of-djia-are-wrong, http://measuringworth.com/DJA, https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/gfdblog/?p=1426 )
  • 70th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Conference that gave birth to the IMF. (The delegates deliberated during 1–22 July 1944, and signed the Agreement on its final day. REFERENCE: https://www.google.com/search?q=first+bretton+woods+conference+date&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb Not sure what the hidden message was here?)
  • 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall (Destruction date: November 9, 1989… but what is she hinting at here?  Is the “buzz word” the “25th”or the “fall”?  Does the 25th mean a certain future date or does the word “fall” indicate that the market will fall hard?)
  • 7th anniversary of the financial market jitters. (again with the focus on the number 7… meaning what?  are we looking for another move down similar to 2008?)
  • The crisis still lingers… (clearly this means we are going down again)
  • It will not happen randomly… (of course not, it’s always planned)
  • “Global growth is still stuck in low gear” (Hmmm… just a fall guy to blame I guess?  We tank and it’s the fault of slowing global growth)
  • It will not be without downside risks, and significant ones (referring to inflation… or was it really meant to refer to the stock market?)
  • We are seeing rising risks of deflation… (good for us sheep but bad for them)
  • Global growth slowing down as the economy cycle turns… (the “buzz word” that stands out to me there is “cycle turns”)
  • Risk of capital runs… (You really mean the gangsters are moving their money out the market before the collapse)
  • Dry run back in May of 2013… (Ah yes, the old test where Bernanke hinted at pulling money out the market last year)
  • There could still be some rough waters ahead of us… (another clear warning that they plan on taking the market down)
  • Overall, the direction is positive (meaning after the downturn the market we’ll go back up again, which should be a final Primary Wave 5 up with this coming correction next month being a nasty Primary Wave 4 down)
  • 95% of the income growth went to the top 1% (Duh… nothing new there as that was always the plan!  Steal from the sheep and give to the wolves)
  • Tapering will have too be very well timed… (again, she’s clearly staying that we are going to withdraw money from the market)
  • Central banks will have to “undo” what they’ve done… (and again, more references to cutting back the stimulus?)
  • Removing the threat of the debt ceiling… (meaning what?  They won’t set one, or make it unlimited?  I don’t know what she means with this sentence?)
  • A stress test will be done in 2014… (Why?  You already know the banks would all fail.  I guess they have to blame the correction on something)


____________________________________________________

Or Just A Big 15-20% Correction?

(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi-mqG8gkQM)

I give the odds of a big correction at 95% and a full blown crash of about 50% for 2014…

In the past 3 years all we’ve seen are these small 4-6% corrections and many people think that’s all we are going to have this time around too.  They see the market at or near the 200dma and think it will bounce and go back up to new all time highs again.  But will this time be different?  I think so.  Why you ask?  One simple answer:  “The weekly rising trendline of support final broke down last week and closed below it”.

S&P500-Weekly-Chart-10-12-2014

 

It’s been having these small corrections since the 2011 low and bouncing off of that trendline every single time.  It’s been great support for the last 3 years but it’s finally failed.  This is the first signs of the end for the bull market since the 2009 low.  While I’m sure there will be one more final rally to retest the current high, (which should start this December, 2014 and carry into early 2015) the current trend is down and we should not assume that this correction has ended yet.

My estimate is that we’ll see the mid-1700’s on SPX by the end of November before the Christmas rally begins.  I suspect the Full Stochastic will be bottomed in the 20’s on the chart above by that time and allow a relief rally.  The MACD’s should be close to the zero line as well, where other bottoms form and allow a bounce.  Once that rally starts it should last all of December (of course) and carry into the early part of 2015.

It’s hard too know how long the rally will last as it could be only 3-4 months or 3 years?  It is called a Primary Wave 5 up in Elliottwave terms by others (Tony Caldaro) that do a lot better job of tracking wave then I do.  It only has to have a higher high then the current high of 2019 SPX to be a successful Primary Wave 5 up.  It could simply go to 2020 in 3-4 months or extend for 3 years to 3000 or more?  There is no way to know what the government will do to try and extend the market but we can speculate based on the past.

What could cause an extend Primary Wave 5 up… QE4, QE5, and QE6?

I don’t know the answer there but I’ll say that “in my opinion” the QE programs have exhausted themselves and won’t work to prop up the pig from here on forward.  This pig of a stock market is much too heavy now with unsustainable debts world wide.  It’s like giving a dying patient a fourth, fifth and sixth round of chemo and radiation treatments with triple the morphine.  It might have helped keep the pig alive in 2009 but this pig is dying and no amount of stimulus is likely to work this time around.

What does that leave for the government to do?  I don’t have a clue?  You can see in the monthly chart below how we should have crashed in the last few years but were saved by QE Infinity (also known as QE3 [quantitative easing]}.  Looking at the 2011 to 2013 period you’ll see the market go from 1400 area to 1100 and stop, then rebound back up again creating the rising channel we see now.  Now look at the ROC (rate of change) during that same period.  It’s hovering on the zero line for almost 2 years trying not to fall below.

S&P500-Monthly-Chart-(top-half)-10-11-2014

When you compare it to the level the MACD’s were at during that period, and then look back to the 2007 top to see the comparisons you would have thought the market would have crashed but the government intervened with the largest QE program ever… “to infinity and beyond as Buzz Bernanke would say”!  It looked perfect for another HUGE “wipeout” crash at that time from a technical point of view.

You have the 2000 high with MACD’s up in the 120-130’s, then a lower MACD high in 2007 in the 60-70’s, with the 2011-2013 zone peaking in the 50’s creating a triple negative divergence on the Monthly chart.  Clearly the market “should” have crashed then, but the Fed’s intervened with QE Infinity.  Now they have successfully manipulated the stock market up to historically levels.  The MACD has never been higher in history (from what I read someone else).

What’s all this mean you ask?

To me it says the likelihood of a “Full Blown Stock Market Crash” like 1929 is VERY likely to happen between 2015 and 2017.  The biggest drop will likely happen in 2015 I think as I really doubt if we’ll make some extended Primary Wave 5 up that last for 3 years or so with upside targets of 3000 or more.  I’m more inclined to seeing a December 2014 rally that will look similar to rally May, 2008 that simply made a lower high and then crashed the rest of the year.  This suggests that we’ll top out in January, 2015 and then drop all year.

If the market goes down to the 1700’s area where the lower trendline of support is on the monthly chart then that’s the scenario I see happening… just a one month Christmas Santa Claus rally  to make a lower high in January and then a crash.  If however the market only goes down to the 20ma around 1795.47 on the monthly chart then there’s a possibility that we’ll rally back up to make a “slightly” higher high in early January to hit a “possible” FP (fake print) I spotted on the SPY back on September 19th, 2014 showing 202.45 as an intraday high.  Since we never went that high that day it’s “possible” that it’s a FP signal to the insiders that know how to read it, which “could” indicate the final top in early January, 2015 after this correction is over with and the P5 (primary wave 5) rally starts.

SPY-FP-202.45-on-09-19-2014

It could be nothing of course… or a “real” FP telling insiders the final high for P5?

Let’s talk about the rituals for minute now…

Yes, it’s that time of year again when all the elite satan worshiping gangsters meet in secret (but right in front of you… if you are looking?).  Of course I’m talking about Legatus, where we find every snake of importance in the world going to so they can find out the latest information on how the super elite gangsters (the true Reptilians) play to screw the sheep (that’s you and me).

Legatus-October-Meeting-2014

Their October meeting is going on now as it started on October 8th and ends this coming Friday October 17th, 2014.  I’ve done many posts in the past about the importance of these meetings and how the gangsters like to “turn” the stock market before, during, or just after one of these meetings end (http://reddragonleo.com/2013/02/03/the-law-of-equilibrium-and-past-history-with-legatus-and-turns-in-the-stock-market).  I called a very important top on May 22nd, 2013 primarily based on a Legatus meeting during that period, along with technical analysis and numerology.  That date added up to a 33 when adding all the numbers in it leaving 22 as a whole since it’s a master number.

Point being is that the gangsters commonly have “turns” in the market around these meetings and they use numerology to pick dates.  Having this meeting going on right now and ending this coming Friday tells me it’s likely to be some type of bounce back up wave to retrace possibly 50% of the entire down move from 2019 to whatever the low is… which I suspect will happen Monday around the 1900 area (+/- 10 points).  So “if” we bottom at say 1890 SPX this week we could “should” retrace back up about 50% of the move down.

Speculating here but if we dropped from 2019 to 1890 then we about 129 points and half of that is about 65 points.  So we should bounce to about 1955 area before we have the really big drop start.  I think we’ll hit that level by this coming Friday but it could go up a little more the following Monday to some other Fibonacci level like 61.8%, or 79 points from the 1890 low… meaning 1969 is possible.  First of course we have to find the low to calculate from… which should happen early this week.  Then we can guess on the upside target…

Usually high levels of open interest in the Puts for October 17th expiration…

Since I like to trade options I’m commonly looking at the various strike prices, open interest, levels, days to expire, etc… and one of the things I mentioned a few weeks back in a comment and tweet was the very high level of puts in the 190 and 195 strike prices.  On could imply that it’s insiders buying them up as they know the market is going to fall below that level.  But that’s not usually the case.  Most of the time it’s just speculators that may or may not have seen the down move coming and loaded up short.  However, from my experience the “market makers” will manipulate the market back up above the highest open interest levels to make those puts expire worthless.

High-Open-Interest-SPY-October-17th-2014

So will this time be different?  Maybe?  I just don’t know?  Normally I’d expect to see 50,000 to 100,000 contracts on any given even number strike price and less then that on the odd prices with the .5’s on the end but having 556,194 contracts at the 190 strike price is at least 5 times the normal amount I’m used too seeing.  Then the 195’s have 237,554 on them, which tells me the market makers will have to do a whole of digging in their pockets to pay out those put holders if they allow it close below 195 SPY (about 1950 SPX) this coming Friday the 17th.  I can tell you that these guys are similar to card dealers in Vegas and will lose their job if too many people win at their table.  So you tell me what you think they will do?  I think they will rally the market up to make them expire worthless.  In Vegas some manager would come out and have the dealer move to another table to break up the winning streak.

Of course there’s no way to know for sure if the “insiders” are actually the one’s that are short and know that the market is going down below there by Friday the 17th but certainly we’d expect to see a lot of wild swing “shakeouts” for the retail sheep holding puts.  Then after the market makers sure up their positions they “could” let the market collapse late Friday after most of those puts holders have giving up and sold out at a lose.  Anyway, I’m looking for some kind of rally this week as everything tells me we are oversold short term and due a nice rally.

But after the rally we should expect another HUGE drop the following weeks into the end of November.  I’m looking for that rising trendline of support to be the low are before a bounce, which appears to be around the low 1,700’s.  If it’s only a shallow sell off then the 20ma on the monthly chart “could” stop the fall, which is just under 1800 SPX.  I’m unsure which will happen but leaning toward the lower target just based on the charts and how many weeks we have left before the end of November when I’m expecting a  bottom to happen.

After that we get a Santa Rally I guess…

Red

P.S.  Let’s keep an eye on the Fed’s Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases too as they can add to the extreme volitalite as they try to save the market from collapse on these days.

Outright-Treasury-Coupon-Purchases-For-October-2014