Thursday, March 28, 2024
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ES Morning Update February 27th 2024

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We started the pullback yesterday, which was mostly into the close. I do not know how low it will go as it could be finished now, but the 5050 zone is an important support that would be ideal for a long. However, with yesterday and Sunday being a "turn window" I decided to take a chance and just re buy my previous longs at a cheaper price.

We might go down to that 5050 zone, but if it happens I'll just ride it out as I still think we will rally up into the next turn date on March 22nd. For me, I'm just trying to get another good entry on the longs, which I did, but nailing the exact best spot is impossible. Not much else to add here as the overall trend is still up and that's how I'm trading it.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 26th 2024

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Last Friday played out pretty much as expected, which was a follow through to the upside in the morning and fade back to flat by the close. I said last week that if this happened we would have completed Tiny Wave 1 up inside Small Wave 3, inside Medium Wave 3.  It's always a "best guess" on the smaller degree waves, so I'm going to re-adjust them a little because of how much time is left before the next major turn date on March 22nd (which obviously isn't very much).

I think that early this week we should pullback to around 5050 on the ES.  And since this entire week is normally a bearish period according to the Seasonality Chart, we could see a full week of range-bound moves to shake out both bulls and bears before we start the next trend move up.

Many subdividing waves might be the plan inside these Tiny Waves while the short term overbought charts reset. So even if we put in a low of say 5050 on Monday it could be revisited later in the week to make a higher low of a few points, which would be (again) to shake out bulls and lure in bears. It's the first week of March that is bullish, so that should be where the market starts another squeeze higher I think. Here's the wave count with the new adjustments...

My short term upside target is around 5225, which is based off my 161.8% system, whereas I'm assuming we'll pullback to 5050 this week to allow me to get a projection from the 4959 low on 2/21 up to the 5123 high on 2/23 that would make "the A leg" part of the ABC pattern, which I covered on my weekend update post about the 161.8% extension last weekend.

These "legs" are not my Elliottwave count, but I had to give them some kind of name, so I'm calling them A, B, and C legs to make and complete a pattern. Here's that chart below...

Again, that's not a wave count.  It's just a short term target (probably the first week of March) that once hit will complete a 161.8% pattern.  This pattern can repeat over and over until the end of the multi-month or year rally ends.  When that happens we'll get a big selloff of course, that flips us from a bull market to a bear market... meaning the 200 SMA is lost.

That's not happened yet, so currently I will continue to look for this pattern to give higher highs.  The "shot across the bow" will be when we get 5-9% pullback, like all of those in the past that I covered on that Fibonacci Extension post, as over the past 20 years pullbacks of that percentage usually produced just one more higher high before the market flipped from the bull market rally to a bear market correction.

In conclusion I'm looking for this week to have a choppy downward bias with 5050 as support.  And next week I'm expecting another rally up toward my 5225 target.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 23rd 2024

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The market continued to squeeze higher yesterday putting in a 100+ point move and making a new all time high. Looking back at different wave counts I've done I think the one that we are most likely on right now is the Extended Alternative Bullish Wave Count - February 18th 2024.

On that chart I have Medium Wave 1 topping on 12/29 at 4841, then M2 bottoming on 1/5 at 4702, which puts us inside a Medium Wave 3 up from that low. Small Wave 1 up ended on 2/12 at the 5066 high, and that's where an ABC pullback happened into yesterdays low of 4959. That means we are inside Small Wave 3 up right now. Below is that chart that I did on February 18th.

If I'm right on that count then we will likely subdivide into 5 Tiny Waves inside Small Wave 3 up, which we probably completed Tiny Wave 1 up at yesterdays high. Meaning that we should pullback small (20-40 points?) today and into Monday for Tiny Wave 2, which would be perfect for the turn date on the 25th/26th as then it would indeed put in a low (higher low, but a low never the less).

This would setup the rest of next week for Tiny Wave 3 up, inside Small Wave 3 up, inside Medium Wave 3 up, inside Large Wave C up... to continue the rally higher into March 22nd, the next important turn date. Below is a close up of that chart...

As you can see on that chart I'm not looking for a lot for Tiny Wave 2 into next Monday. From there (if this all plays out as it's always a "best guess") we should grind higher in a Tiny Wave 3 up, then 4 down and 5 up to complete Small Wave 3 up. A pullback for Tiny Wave 4 should follow and then more slightly higher high for Small Wave 5, which will complete Medium Wave 3 up.

This should look a lot like all the prior patterns going back in time that I covered on my "Weekend Update – A Study Of The 161.8 Fibonacci Extension" post, which commonly shows a high for the 161.8% getting "almost" hit, then a pullback, and a final higher high that pierces through it. That will be the S3 high, S4 pullback and Small Wave 5 pierce. Then a good pullback will follow.

I did a projection for the target high using that 161.8% method and it points to 5309, which was created from the 3502 low to the 4619 high. That points to 5309, but I also decide to do another one from the 4122 low (MC of LB) to the 4841 high (S5 of M1), and that projects 5286... so somewhere in that zone is where the top for M3 should appear.

Moving on... after the close we got a FP of 505.76 on the SPY, which I think will be the pullback low for Tiny Wave 2 today, or Monday.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update February 22nd 2024

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(Post wrote last night)

Yesterday the market drifted lower all day and bypassed the FOMC minutes as it didn't have any real affect, but the earnings from Nvidia after hours causes a nice move back up like I was expecting.

Now we have to see how high this rally goes into this Friday as if we take out that 5059 and 5066 high then the lows are likely in and we will only pullback into the Sunday/Monday turn window (25th/26th) for a higher low. From there we grind higher into the March 22nd turn date to finally top out (hopefully?) before a nice 3-9% pullback. The alternative would be that if we fall to make a higher high by this Friday then I'd lean toward one more drop into this Sunday/Monday for another lower low then last weeks low from the CPI number.

I really don't favor that happening but it could. It would have to go lower then yesterday and after the squeeze up from Nvidia yesterday after the close I really don't put that has happening.

What I think will happen is that we grind higher and pullback small so that the coming turn date gets bypassed... meaning it doesn't make a new high and is simply a down day, which qualifies for it being a "turn" as after that the rest of next week should be up, and I think it continues that grind all the way into the next turn date on March 22nd. The best thing the bulls can do is to "build a base" for several days... meaning "No Breakout" until after this coming Sunday/Monday passes by. Time will tell.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 21st 2024

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From the February 12th high of 5066 the market has been pulling back in what appears to be an ABC move with the 5059 high on the 16th being the B part and the current pullback being the C wave. I don't know if it's finished or not as most C waves subdivide in 5 waves, so the move up from the close yesterday might be just a wave 2 inside that C down... or it ended at low on Tuesday.

The line in the sand I think is the current all time high of 5066 and the 5059 lower high, as if the market rallies up over them today, tomorrow or Friday then obviously the ABC down finished and another strong leg up in the market will be in play. So the 5059 level must hold to keep the bears in control as a lower high below that amount should then be a wave 2 inside the C wave down.

The short term charts are oversold and support a rally today/tomorrow but the daily is still closer to overbought, even with yesterdays pullback, (but the trend is still up). We have  news events like the FOMC minutes from last month coming out today at 2pm, and then NVDA earnings after the close today, that's 2 things that could move the market both directions.

Based on the technicals I'd think that the FOMC would cause a rally up into the close where the 5059 lower high will be the decision level. If it fails to take out that level then the earnings from NVDA after the close could cause the market to gap over it tomorrow, or to reverse back down on Thursday, which could be a wave 3 inside a C wave?

That move might be the move that ends Sunday in the futures or Monday morning to complete all 5 waves in the C wave of the ABC down. But if the 5066 high is taken out then the squeeze up much higher should top us on Friday and then a small pullback in the 25th/26th would be likely I'd think to still make a low in that turn window.

However, if by some crazy move up into a top on Friday, that then goes slightly higher into Sunday/Monday then that "expected" low for the turn window will become a high instead, and sell for a much deeper pullback. I don't think that will happen but it's certainly possible. I lean toward the 5 waves down in the C wave of the ABC down, which should bottom in the turn window, which is my logical thoughts of course.  Oddly my gut tells me we are going to make a new high.

I'm still long and riding it out as I'm still focused on the top into March 22nd, which could be 5200-5300 I think.  Everything this week is done to shakeout bulls and bears alike, so I have to just stand my ground and let the bigger picture play out, which is still up I think.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 20th 2024

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I did a long update over the weekend and posted it Sunday afternoon, so I'll keep this one short and just refer you to read that long update for the bigger picture. For the short term I lean toward an early rally this week up near the all time high, but I think it fails to take it out and instead makes a lower higher.

Odds favor that happening today and then some choppy action the rest of this week that drifts lower, with the bottom being put in next Monday morning (or Sunday night, the 25th). From there it's up to around 5307, which I think will happen into the March 22nd turn date. After that a nice pullback of some decent amount. How much I don't know but I'd think it could be that 7-10% pullback that everyone is looking for, but it might be less... hard to say right now. I covered all the past periods where the pattern appeared and we had different percentages on each one.

It was anywhere from 3% to 9% going back 20 years, so I'd think somewhere in the middle would be the zone. If it's 5% for example then from 5300 we'd pullback to about 5035, but I'd think they might want to pierce through it a little to make everyone think the high is in... which it might be, but studying the past it wasn't the last high the majority of the time. But I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's just focus on the short term. That is up early this week (today) to try and make another higher high, and then down into the 25th/26th.

Have a blessed day.

Weekend Update – A Study Of The 161.8 Fibonacci Extension

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Last week we got close to the 5080-5090 target zone with a high of 5066, and then the pullback started. I'm still not sure which of my wave counts we are on but I lean toward the Alternative Bullish Wave Count, which suggests the smallest pullback of all of them.

That pullback came last Tuesday after the CPI number wasn't liked by the market, and it "might" have been the end of it, but last Fridays failure to breakout to another new all time high suggest that move down may not be finished and that it will unfold in an ABC pattern. Here's last weeks chart of the Alternative Bullish Wave Count last Monday...

As you can see on that chart I showed M1 to M2 as an ABC down into February 26th, which I think is still very likely to play out. Bulls might try another time to breakout to another higher high early this week but I think it doesn't happen and instead we pullback again and bottom on the 26th to end the pullback for M2 down.

What I don't know is how low that pullback will be? The move down last Tuesday reached a low of 4963 on the ES, so if this is an ABC move down then it should take out that low by some amount.

However, there's nothing to rule out a higher low or a double bottom. The market loves to fool everyone so I just have to focus on the date of the 26th for the low (possibly Sunday the 25th in the futures?). Of course if it's a really nasty drop of 7-10%, likely I've talked about in the past as "possible", then it will be a super strong buy that will take us to new all time highs again very quickly (Low odds in my opinion).

If that happens we could rally all summer and reach 6000, who knows for sure? But if it's a smaller pullback (4850-4900?) then the move up to the new all time high might only last into next month and only reach 5300-5400? Below is the updated Alternative Bullish Wave Count.

Now I will bring back the First Bullish Wave Count, or the Second Bullish Wave Count if the pullback turns into something much larger then expected, but for now this chart is what I'm focused on. On that chart you can see that I have the coming pullback into the 26th as making a lower low then last Tuesday, which would a nice an clean ABC down for M2... but if that does not happen then I'll relabel the count as M1 having NOT completed last Monday at the 5066 high.

It will mean that the Small and Tiny waves leading up into the high from L2 will we be extending and sub diving further. I do favor that happening actually as there's just something about the positions I've labeled those Small and Tiny waves at that just doesn't look right. Below is a chart of that Extended Alternative Bullish Wave Count exploring that possibility.

In this chart you'll see I relabeled the Large waves to ABC's instead of 5 wave patterns. I did this because when I looked back in the past it seems that all the recent rallies (last 10+ years) up from important lows unfolded in an ABC pattern. The C wave up always had 5 waves inside, which is normal of course but discovering that the larger waves were in a 3 wave pattern was a shock to me.

I know that Elliottwave talks about 5 waves up and 3 waves down but the facts tell me otherwise. So I'm just using what I see as "factual" from the past to forecast the future, that's why I labeled this chart with an ABC up for the Large waves.

I also noticed that many (most) of the prior patterns over the last 20 years, that did have this ABC up, all rallied about the same amount in percentage terms for that C wave.  What I mean is that when I measure the start of the rally up from the very bottom to the high of the A wave as 100% the point where 161.8% is located at seems to be where the next important top is at, which is the end of the C wave up.  Here's a chart of it...

The first rally up from the 3502 in October of 2022 topped at 4180, which was the A wave for that move.  The 161.8% mark of that rally was 4599, and that was the next important high area on 7/31/2023, with an actual high of 4619.25... and that's super close in my opinion.

On my Alternative Bullish Wave Count chart (and Extended) I labeled that A wave as the top of Medium Wave A, and it foretold the top for Medium Wave C extremely well.  Now, that ABC created a Large Wave A (or Large Wave 1, but again, my research says it's an A wave), which when you look at the 161.8% mark of it you get a projection of 5309.71 for the high of Large Wave C.

So, odds are VERY STRONG in my opinion that we reach that level before any rally strong pullback (like 7-10%) happens.  I think we reach it into the March 22nd turn date, (after a small pullback into the February 26th turn date first).

After that pullback I just don't know?  We could do another leg up to 6000 or that could have ended it all and we go down the rest of this year.  Hard to say right now but let's not put the cart before the horse here.  It's better to just get the next big moves correct and worry about every other move when it's closer.

In fact, when I looked at many prior patterns in the past they were mixed on whether or not the final high was in or not.  Sometimes it was the final high, but most of the times it wasn't.  Let's look at those charts now.

Above we have the 2020 and 2022 chart to study.  On the 2022 part I've marked the first major rally up (the Large A wave) as ending at the 3587 high.  Then when I do the Fibonacci on it the 161.8% level points to 4460.23, which was NOT the last high.  The market fell shy a little at 4549 and then did a 6.36% pullback before another strong and final rally up to the 4808.25 high.

That could be what we see happen this coming March 22nd, where we reach just shy of the 5309.71 projected target and from there we start a 5-10% pullback.  Then back up into April and May for some even higher high, and possibly the final one?

Looking at the 2020 section of the chart you can see the same thing basically, a rally up into the 161.8% area, which stopped shy back then to at 3337.50 instead of the 3359.55 target.  A pullback of only 3.73% then and one more higher high followed.

On the next chart (above) I cover the same 2020 period but also the 2018 chart.  You can see that back in the first quarter of 2018 there was an A wave up that topped at 2792, which gave a projection of 2954.53 for the 161.8% target high.  The market rallied all year until it almost reached it on September 21st, pulled back just 1.34% and tried one last time to reach it but couldn't.

What stands out to me is that the market doesn't seem to reach the 161.8% level on the first try but if there's a deep enough pullback (3-6%?) it will reach it and pierce it for that final high afterwards.  The small pullback of 1.34% back then kept it from making that higher high and from there it crashed basically.

On the next chart (above) we see the 2016 period.  After the Flash Crash in 2015 the market quickly rallied back up to 2011.75 to make the A wave, and that high projected a 2123.45 target for the 161.8% extension.  The market rallied up to 2110.25 on 11/3/15 and fell shy a little to hit it like it has done many times.

It then pulled back 5.29% and made another run back up to tried to make a new higher high.  It failed and caused another large drop into late that year and early 2016.  This seems to be the pattern where if the rally up AFTER the pullback from the 161.8% target FAILS to make a new all time high the drop starts from there for the next larger and longer term correction (months).

If if makes a new higher high the multi month correction starts from that point it seems, but in both cases after that last move up (call it a 5th wave?) there is a very another large drop that follows.

Moving on we now will look at the 2010 and 2012 periods (above).  First we examine the late 2011 rally back up for the A wave, which topped at 1289.25 and projected a 161.8% target of 1425.98.. which once again the market rallied up into it and fell shy hitting 1419.75 on March 27th, 2012.

Then we saw a 4.73% pullback followed by another rally to attempt to make that final higher high.  It failed just like the 2016 one did.  Call it a "Truncated 5th Wave" if you want?  Regardless of what you label it the same result happened... another multi-month deep correction.  It pulled back into the 200 SMA (in white) and found support there to stop the decline.  But it was probably a 40-50% pullback from the 2011 low, so a nice one to trade.

Looking at the 2010 low the first rally up for the A wave ended at 1127.75 and projected a 1205 high for the 161.8% extension.  The market rallied up nicely an pierced that level this time around with a high of 1224.50, and then did a 4.36% pullback.  It held on the 50 SMA (in red), so from there another rally up followed.

Going back further now we study the 2009-2011 period (above) and you can see that I added the period after that 4.36% pullback to see if the rally that followed could be projected to as well.  I marked the top of that A wave at the 1224.50 high and it projected a 161.8% level of 1361.54, which the market rallied up into 1343.00 on 2/18/11 (fell shy again) before pulling back 7.57%, which then gave the market enough fuel to make another higher high on 5/2/11 of 1373.50 to pierce the 161.8% level successfully.

Looking at the famous 666 low in 2009 we see the A wave high was 957.50 and it projected a 161.8% target of 1137.80 back then.  It was hit and pierced on 1/11/10 and then produced a 9.34% pullback before rallying again into 4/26/10 where a larger multi-month correction followed.

Lastly let's look at the 2002-2004 period (above) to see what happened back then.  I marked two different levels for the high of some A wave up.  The one in 2003 into 2004 worked again as the 1015.75 high for the A wave targeted 1156.19 for the 161.8% extension and the market hit 1155.00 on 1/26/04 falling shy as it seems to do a lot.

Then a small pullback of only 1.839%, followed by a final attempt into 3/4/04 where it pierced it successfully and reached 1163.75 before a multi-month correction started.  It was a slow an drawn out one but the pattern still repeats it seems.

Now looking at the 2009 period the 954.80 high for the A wave projected a target of 1070.55 for the 161.8% extension, which was hit and pierced, but the market continued higher there without doing the typical 3-9% pullback.  I can only think that happened because the market was so oversold on the monthly and weekly charts that there was too much upward pressure to allow such a pullback so early after the 2 year correction ended.

 

Conclusion...

If after the pullback into the 26th the rally up into March 22nd gets to the 5250-5300 zone a week or so PRIOR to the 22nd, and it pulls back 1-2%, then the move back up might ONLY put in a double top like 9/21/18 and 10/3/18 did (lower high back then, but could be a slightly higher high this time) I'd say we will have topped for the year and will drop hard like 2018 did.

Or... if after the pullback into the 26th the rally up into March 22nd tops inside the 5250-5300 zone on that date then odds suggest we'll pullback some decent amount of 4-10%? and then rally up into April or May for a higher high to end the entire rally up from the 2022 low of 3502.  From there we drop hard the rest of the year.

 

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 16th 2024

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Ok, looks like the pullback is over and we are off to the races on the upside into the next major turn date of March 22nd, which should be the final top for this rally. Next Monday the market is closed for presidents day, so that entire week might have light volume, which favors the bulls of course.

I don't know how high we go but when we top I don't think there will be a single bear left. That will open the door for a crash, and that's very possible if this plays out like I think it will. There is a Lunar Eclipse on March 24th/25th and Full Moon on the 25th, with a Solar Eclipse on April 8th... so everything will be setup for a crash if the market wants to do it.

I don't know what the wave count will be but I'll try to figure it out going into that date over this weekend. It really doesn't matter as I'm sure that once the date arrives I'll be able to look back and figure it out.

I'm quite confident about this next turn date being the final high now, whereas if we had started an 7-10% correction last Tuesday we could have pushed out the last high into August or September, but now that we just had a short lived tiny pullback that ended already it means we are going up into next month for sure, and will drop very hard afterward. If you are a bear it's best to save your cash and wait for March 22nd to arrive.

Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update February 15th 2024

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After I wrote yesterdays update I posted on Twitter and in the chatroom that I didn't like the looks of the rally back up and that I was worried that it could kill the bearish case. Meaning that we needed to roll back over yesterday and start the next leg down. That failed to happen as the market chopped all day and rallied up into the close to hit the 5015-5020 zone, which is the "line in the sand" for the bulls versus bears.

Above it and the lows are in with just that one big down day on the 13th, so my turn date put in a low instead of a high like I wanted and thought would happen. The pullback has turned out to be my Alternative Bullish Wave Count that projected the smallest move down it seems.

If you go back and read that Monday update I was looking for about 4875-4900 for the low and we hit 4936 as the low. That wasn't even 23.6%, but it is what it is I guess, but it was the wave count I leaned to the most. I just thought it would last more then a day or so, but they did everything in just 2 days and completed the pullback. So unless the bears and take the market back below the 5015-5020 zone odds are very strong that the low is in now and we are off to new all time highs and beyond again. I'll now be looking for March 22nd as the next possible "turn" in the market, which should be a top I think. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 14th 2024

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Ugly day for the bulls yesterday. I thought that maybe we would get a nice bounce back up but it was small and we continued down lower with just a midday small rally. At this point I think the high is in and we are going down for several more days before we get a multi-day good bounce.

I think we bottom into Monday and then have a strong rally up into Tuesday the 20th, but that could extend into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. That would be a bigger degree B wave I believe and then we get the final C wave down into the 26th to end the correction.

How low you ask? That's a tough one but the 4600 zone is what I'm leaning toward. Maybe we get more, or maybe less, but that's my thoughts on it. I don't think we get much of a rally on the upside until we first go lower. I know that many people are just looking for this to be short lived pullback that is about done, and that we get one more higher high, but I don't see that now.

We got close enough to the 5080-5090 target on Monday and now we should be in a correction mode for several weeks. I've covered all my thoughts in great detail on Mondays update, so not much else to add.

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update February 13th 2024

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Yesterday opened flat, and I thought it would stay that way all day as the market waited on the CPI this morning. But instead we started to rally up and got all the way to 5066.50, which is just shy of the 5080-5090 zone, and could be "close enough"? Meaning I'm not sure if we go any higher on not today? Today is the 13th and is the date I was looking for to mark the top but it yesterday could have been it too.

Here's my best guess on the very short term wave count. Again, it's just a guess, so it's likely wrong. Meaning that we are super close now, and my ET5 might not happen? We could have topped yesterday at ET3, which I'd just relabel to call it ET5.

That is my Alternative Bullish Wave Count, but I really don't know which one we will do? We could be on the First Bullish Wave Count (a medium bearish one) or the Second Bullish Wave Count, which is my most bearish one. It's a toss of a coin here to which one is right, but the important thing is that all three of them are bearish ones, which means we will go down some amount in the next few weeks. Whether or not it's 4%, 7-8%, or 10-12% is what I don't know, but once it starts I should be able to get a better idea of which path we are on. I will just plan for the least bearish Alternative Count and be happy if we see the most bearish.

Have a blessed day.

Weekend Update – Near A MAJOR Top

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A Total Bust For My Bearish Wave Count!

Back To The Drawing Board...

Ok, so a massive failure the last month with every call I made as I just kept looking for that big leg down to only get a "one day wonder" move (or a few days, but not much in points) and to get reversed back up in the days after with a bear squeeze. A super frustrating month of bad trades and forecasts, which forced me to step back and dig in to researching the past to see where I went wrong and what the "truth" really is for the future.

So I what I did was spend the entire weekend studying the 2020 and 2022 tops from the prior lows of each in the 2 years before. For the 2020 top it started from the 2018 bottom, and for the 2022 top it started from the 2020 low. Then I compared it to the rally from the 2022 bottom to our current top in 2024. I looked at the moving averages, the MACD's and the RSI, as well as patterns they made (Head and Shoulders). And what I found is very interesting. Lets go over it and start with the 2022 top first.

As you can see I have labeled all the periods of importance into 6 areas. I have labeled the MACD's and RSI made notes on some of it. If I would have done this analysis last month I would have figured out that the market wasn't ready for any large drop like I was calling for the past month. I would have seen that "point 5" needed to form and then "point 6", and when I was looking for that large drop at I would has figured out that we were just in the middle of "point 5". Below is the current chart for 2024 with the same labels.

The sideways chop from mid-November 2023 until December 8th was equal to the sideways chop from 11/8/21 to 11/21/21, but back then there was a pullback into 11/30/21 inside "point 5", (PB #1) followed by another push back up to the same spot again, and another drop from 12/16/21 to 12/20/21 (PB #2) for a "higher low", followed by a slightly higher high... and then one last pullback (PB #3) which ended "point 5"... and then a final rally for "point 6".

However, we didn't get that drop after December 8th 2023 (compared to the drop from 11/21/21 to 11/30/21) but instead rallied up to a new all time high. That should have told me that the first pullback wasn't going to happen from a double top sideways zone like 11/8/21 to 11/21/21, but instead will go higher and then do a pullback as the rally up from the October 27th 2023 low was not finished yet.

That pullback finally came on 12/20/23 (PB #1), but was just a "one day wonder"... which I have to list it as similar to 11/22/21 to 12/3/21, not in "time" of course, but it was the first move down after a strong rally up.  That was followed another push back up to retest the resent high on 11/22/21, which put in a lower high on 12/13/21 before dropping lower the next day on 12/14/21 (PB #2), which I would compare to the 1/5/24 low.

Basically, pullbacks number 1 and 2 in both the 2022 chart and the 2024 chart "flipped" in "time" whereas in the 2022 chart PB #1 was a week or so in "time" and "PB #2" was just one day (12/14/21).  On the 2024 chart the opposite happened as "PB #1" was one day (12/20/23) and "PB #2" was a week long.

The last pullback in "point 5" in 2021 (PB #3) was for a higher low (then PB #1), which would be the 1/11/24 to 1/17/24 drop. Obviously this isn't an exact match but the overall pattern is there... they just flip sometimes in "time" or depth.

This leaves one more push up for "point 6", which in 2021 it was another new all time high, and currently here in 2024 we are repeating that move as well. Now... back in 2021 it went sideways up at the top for about a week before rolling over and dropping, so that's possible again this time around.

It won't be an exact match but something similar. Maybe it climbs a little higher in a slow grind day by day this time instead of sideways? I don't know for certain, but this is why I also went back to the 2020 top and studied it... which is in the chart below.

On this chart from 2020 you will notice that "point 5" is longer in "time" then in 2024, but many things are still similar. Like how the rally up rides on top of the 20 and 50 SMA (simple moving averages) and only touches the 50 (red line) at the end of "point 5" in 2020.

Today we haven't yet pulled back that deep to touch it but did pierce the 20 (yellow/gold) at the end of "point 5" on the 2024 chart. I could make the argument that we will have a pullback to touch the 50 SMA soon and then go up for one more higher for "point 6", which is what I'm going to label as "PB #3" and cover shorty.

Note that the MACD's tell another story as in 2020 there were "2 tops" on them inside "point 5" and we currently have "2 tops" completed in 2024, but again... nothing ever matches exactly.

No matter how you look at it we are missing the "Last Top" in "point 6" from 2020, and just looking at the MACD right now it could take 1-2 weeks to "hook it back up" to where we could see a crossover that makes a lower MACD top.

On the 2022 chart there was only "1 top" for "point 5", so a slight difference from it compared to 2020 and 2024.  I do not know how this will unfold as both the 2020 and 2022 charts are very similar to 2024, and both suggest we will need 1-2 weeks to finish "point 6" (or the last pullback of "point 5" on the 2020 chart if I'm wrong on that section being completed?).

Let's go over that now.  On the 2020 chart there was a good pullback for 2 days (1/24/20-1/27/20) and then another good one on 1/31/20, which are "PB #1 and 2".  Therefore I have to adapt (just like I did with PB #1 and 2 on the 2022 and 2024) and label the "one day wonder" pullback on 2/7/20 into 2/10/20 as "PB #3", and say that it's the opposite of the same move on 12/20/23, which was "PB #1" there.

Again, it's flipped around some as back in 2020 the high before "PB #1" was lower then the high before "PB #3" and in 2024 the high before "PB #1" was higher then the high before "PB #3".  Back then, from the 2/10/20 low for "PB #3" the market topped in 10 days on 2/20/20... so will this repeat and top in 10 days from the 1/17/24 low?

On the 2022 chart it topped 14 days after the low, which would be January 31st, 2024.  A lot of things to watch closely in the next 1-2 weeks as both prior patterns suggest we will top out very soon and complete "point 6".

I'll be very focused on seeing if the MACD curls up and gives me a lower peak (I'd want to see them crossover, even if for only a day). And I'll be looking at the RSI to see if it has a similar pattern form compared to "point 5 and 6" on both the 2020 and 2022 chart.

In the end it will be just a "best guess" as there's no perfect repeat of anything in the past, but many times it does "rhyme", and I think one of these prior years will be repeated.

Conclusion:  Bulls want to hold the recent low of 4746 from last Wednesday and go up or sideways the rest of the week for either of my comparisons of the past to play out.  Basically they keep at tight range to form a similar pattern as previously.

If 4746 is lost there's a big risk that the high is "in" and we are starting the down move early (compared to what 2020 and 2022 suggest).  If 4702 is lost (from Friday the 5th) then I'd say there's a 99% chance the high is "in".  Once support is lost it should drop hard and fast and look like a mini-crash.

Lest we not forgot...

The Yahoo site with all the FP's on it, that I usually ignore, has almost come true this time (on the upside at least), for we hit 482.72 on Friday and the triple fake prints on this chart are for 483.07... will the 445.22 FP's be next?

Have a blessed day.

ES Morning Update March 20th 2020

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Looks like the market is trying to bottom here gang. Yesterday was clearly a much calmer one and today looks like it's starting out that way too. It's Qual Witching (not Triple), where 4 different types of assets classes expire. Historically it's a positive day, and it's starting over that way here before the open. I still don't think this is down on the downside.

There are lower projections still outstanding. Oscar Carboni has 2109 on the ES Futures as his downside target Peter Eliades still has two lower target areas on the Nasdaq (Nasdaq-40 week projection 6166.97-5382.85 and Nasdaq-4 year projection 5308.97-4805.821). I'll include both video's here in this post.

This again looks like the calm before the storm. My best guess is that we'll bottom out next week, or by the end of March. Then the storm happens from April 1st to April 10th (aka, the arrests of the deep state players). During this period I think they will close the stock market.  Again, just a guess and NOT fact. If so, then when it reopens I would not be surprised if a cure isn't announced for the virus.

This could be released during the time I think the market will be closed. If this happens we'll see a huge rally back up start after April 10th (again, this is speculation on the 10 days of darkness during that period). So, prepare yourself according in case this does happen.

Short term I think this bounce will be over with early next week... maybe today? But they might bounce it for several days and start back down after Tuesday or so. I feel a few more days and a little more upside is needed for the short term charts to work off the massively oversold conditions they are in. We might get to 2600-2700, but I don't see much more. There's still a lot of funds trapped and they will keep selling on any move up, so that should limit the rally.

The ES is trying desperately to hold that double bottom low from December 2018, but the DOW already lost it, and so did the Russell. The SPX will lose it too eventually. So with the Nasdaq as it's been the strongest and isn't even down to that 2018 low. Instead it's trying to hold the June 2019 double bottom low. They will break at some point next week I think. Today though looks to be another "calm before the storm" one. Have a great weekend. God is in control, fear not.

ES Morning Update March 19th 2020

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Looks like the market this morning is going to open without another limit up or down move... LOL. These are Biblical times we are in and no amount of technical analysis or elliottwave can predict it. But we do know that government has tons of power to control the market if they really want too. We know that many, many times in the past the Fed's would step in at some point to stop a decline. Recently they have injected some large sums of money into the it but it's not had the same effect. It's just got too far out of control it appears, and no amount of money can save it... or can it?

I get the feeling that's just not the case. Instead, I think the government is waiting until the market has cleaned out all the fraud and corruption from various hedge funds and companies, like maybe JPmorgan with their silver manipulation, or Goldman Sachs? I don't know for sure of course but I do think that at some point the government will come into the market with bailout of certain key companies (airlines), and direct buying of stocks.

But first I think Trump and his team are using this event to clean out the evil. He seems to know when the stock market is going to bottom as he tweeted back in 2018 at the December lows that stocks look like a good buy here. Recently he said "this is the calm before the storm" (at 24:40 into this video), which tells me the stock market might calm down here and do some kind of bounce for a few days or more. But it also tells me that once the calm period is over with the storm will be when the market drops again, which could be before, during or after the April 1st to 10th period as that's being referred to now as the "10 days of darkness" where mass assets are going to happen.

I don't know if it's true or not but the facts we have at hand right now do support it. I mean, we do have cities on lock down and area in quarantine. So this event really could happen. Therefore if we get a bounce of any kind in the coming days (during this calm period) we shouldn't think that the low is in and should look to short it.

There are lower levels forecast-ed by Peter Eliades a (from yesterdays morning update), so unless the rally is huge, with the Nasdaq getting up over 8000 or so, then we should expect any rally to just be a bounce before another drop. I'd talk about technical and wave counts if it worked, but this isn't your normal correction. It's historic, and has never happened ever in the stock market... not even in 1929 or 1987. So during this calm period lets see if the market can get a bounce. God bless everyone, and may Trump succeed in arresting the deep state satanists.

ES Morning Update March 18th 2020

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The market is down again this morning as it just can't seem to hold any gains. It's a bounce one day and give it all back the next type of trading environment. Maybe yesterday was part of the ABC up for a wave 4 move, but we'd need to stay above the current low for this to be the B down and Tuesday the A up. If so then we should get 2 days up in a row for the C wave I'd think. It's really kinda worthless right now trying to find the bottom it feels.

I'll include this video from Peter Eliades that has a downside target on the Nasdaq-40 week projection of 6166.97-5382.85, and the Nasdaq-4 year projection shows 6308.97-4805.821, so unless that get invalidated that's where we are headed to. If you pick 5000 as a middle ground then the DOW would be around 14,400 and the SPX around 1700, but that's only if the ratio between them stays the same... which I doubt if that happens. No matter what, it's some scary low numbers. Here's that video.

Have a blessed day and remember that God is in full control.

ES Morning Update March 17th 2020

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It finally looks like the market is calming down and stabilizing some with this morning the futures not being limit up or down. I'm not expecting this area to be "the low" but we should be in for a few days of a choppy rally I believe. Considering that this is the monthly options expiration week (triple witching I think) the market is back to the old pattern of bottoming out in by the end of the second week of the month (or early the third week) and then going back into Friday so the puts sold by the market makers expire worthless on the rally.

It doesn't work as well these days with weekly options now existing, and Monday and Wednesday ones too. But not all ETF's or stocks have those extra option dates. So the pattern does still carry weight and works from time to time. I still think there are lower prices coming but that wave 4 bounce could finally be starting now.

If so then I'd be looking for a top by the close on Thursday (maybe Friday) and then another drop should follow. My focus will be on how high it goes, as if it's a wave 4 bounce only with an expected wave 5 down yet to come, then it shouldn't go above 2800 by much and certainly not recapture 2900+ as that zone is big resistance from the October 3rd-10th, 2019 period, as well as August back then too. It's also the first low from the wave 1 drop.

The 200 day moving average it up higher around 3047 right now but that's too high for a wave 4 up in my opinion. It should not get near it. The 38.2% retracement from the low back up (starting from the all time high) is 2780.74, so again, this bounce (assuming it coming) should not go much higher in the coming few days. That's all I have for now. God Bless.

ES Morning Update March 16th 2020

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Last Friday we saw a big day up, but most of the move was into the close. Then half of it got reversed going into the weekend. Sunday night the Fed's announced another rate cut but the pop higher was short lived as the market reversed back to hit the limit where futures stayed all night long. There's an FOMC meeting this Wednesday but with them already telling us what they have planned I'm not sure what more can be said to juice the market?

However, the market is very short term oversold so possibly we see some kind of ABC bounce up into the meeting, but it's likely to be sold into. If the market was to flush down into the meeting to the 2100-2200 area instead then I'd say that's where a decent rally could start from, but odds lean more toward going up into the meeting with 2800-3000 as the likely high.

No matter what bounce happens there's too much technical damage to get very far north, and another lower low is expected.  And early this week we could see some more wild swings up and down to shake out both bulls and bears alike before another drop starts. I've been looking for a wave 4 up and this could be it... or what we saw Friday was all of it?

Naturally it will be choppy and will breakdown into smaller waves. Once done though I expect another drop (wave 5?) to that 2100-2200 area. From there I'm sure we'll have lower target.  That's all I have for today. God bless everyone as I know a lot of people will be impacted financially from this virus and stock market crash.

ES Morning Update March 13th 2020

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Yesterdays drop was huge and the put to call ratio hit a new high again. It's starting to look and feel like capitulation here, and that means a bottom is near. Probably not today with this strong rally back up as trapped bulls will sell into it, but the next trip back down should be the last one before a very strong rally back up starts. My guess is we'll that last drop on Monday.

Whether it's a higher low or lower low I'm not sure, but this move up acts like a wave 4 bounce inside a C wave down, so a wave 5 down to end the C wave and the larger degree A wave from the current all time high, could be next. Give me that last drop on Monday and then I'll be a bull. For today the 263-265 area on the SPY is resistance. Buckle up for next week as should be just as wild as the ride down as the bulls try to take it back up. So if you missed this big drop (I know I did) you'll get another shot to catch the move back up. Have a great weekend and God bless.

ES Morning Update March 12th 2020

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So much for the bounce is it's pretty clear now we aren't getting one. If you missed the drop there's no good bounces to get short at. Now we look for a bottom, which should be around 20,300 on the DOW and 2525 ES (2560 SPX) according to Oscar Carboni's OMNI system. I don't have much to add that hasn't been said in prior updates. The bounce I was rooting for from the meeting the banksters had at the White House yesterday didn't do anything to help the market. So, more downside is coming. Stay safe and remember that cash is a position.

ES Morning Update March 11th 2020

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I've not been talking about it much but we've gotten a lot of intraday FP's lately. Most of the time they are just late fills by some market maker as you can look at them to see that the print is at the exact same level as the prior days close. But weirdly they have be acting as magnets for the market to go to. The premarket downside FP yesterday was by around 11:30 am EST and then we turned back up and rallied into the close.

Then afterhours yesterday we had another downside FP, and we are likely going to open around that level. Plus, we just got yet another new FP to the upside here in the premarket session, so will the pattern repeat? If so then this down move will turn back around and head up to that new FP of 288.42 by the close today. I don't normally pay much attention to those intraday fake prints because again, most of the time they are NOT fake prints but just late fills... meaning the seldom work.

Anyway, I just thought I'd point that out for those that notice them as well. For my thoughts... I think we are carving out a short term bottom here with a series of wave 1's up and wave 2's, which setups a wave 3 up of some degree soon. The catalyst that could cause that squeeze is the banksters meeting at the White House today. Results from that meeting probably won't be released until after the close today but if they get some kind of bailout then look out for a big squeeze up on Thursday to start.

It does NOT mean the lows are "in" but it could be that large B wave up I've been looking for and called wrong too many times. Picking the bottom of the large A down certainly hasn't been easy, but I'm thinking now that it did end with the lows on Monday. This rally up has several targets. The first is the 50% Fibonacci Level of about 3060 SPX (306 SPY).

Then next would be some of the other "possible" FP's (still look like late fills to me though) above that never got hit. From 3/5 afterhours there's one at 313.08, then 2/5 has one at 322.42, but the interesting one is from the prior day on the ES Futures as it's not a FP but a gap that is still open and needs filled. It's from 3/21-3/22 and is 3336.25 to 3312.00, and it's rare to get them on the ES as it trades almost 24 hours a day. I really not expecting it to be filled on just a large B wave up (or whatever you want to label it), but at some point (before this year is over with) I think it will be filled.

My best guess is that 50% bounce level around 3050 or so on the SPX, and then down for the large C wave. I'll include Oscar Carboni's video here as he has down side targets of 2533-2525 on the ES Futures, which lines up nicely with a large C wave down. My guess there is that we hit it by the end of this month. Next week is the 3rd week of the March and those monthly options still carry more weight then the weeklies and dailies do, so we could still get that positive effect going into next Friday.

It used too be very common (before weekly and daily options) for the market makers to drive the market down (and VIX up) into the second Friday of each month so they could sell the VIX up at a high and sell make puts on the SPY as well. Then they would rip it up the third week into that Friday where all those options would expire worthless and they'd keep all the money. Rigged? Yes... of course it was (and still is), but that's the way it is.

That's pattern is NOT that common anymore as being "super accurate" but it does sometimes work from time to time. Things have changed a lot since then so now it's best to just keep that in the back of your mind and focus on the levels. I suspect we'll see a large rally on Thursday due to something coming out of the meeting at the White House. If so, it could (depending on how high it goes) squeeze out a ton of bears and setup Friday to drop hard again. That's all I see for now. God Bless.

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