All the selling yesterday and the gap down today… just got squeezed.  It seems that the bears never catch a break.  Will the market continue higher again tomorrow?  They are so close too the 11,000 mark on the DOW, that I think everyone is expecting it now.  Does that mean it won’t happen?

I can’t answer that, but the SPY did have a fake print on Wednesday of 119.35 on the 10 minute chart… which would probably be slightly above the 11,000 mark on the DOW.  Could that be the finally target before the drop?  Maybe?  But we also had another fake print today at 117.65 SPY.  Which one will play out is unknown… maybe up first, then down?

Currently, we are still in the channel up from the 1044 low last month.  We fell outside that trendline today, but rallied up and closed right on it.  The market is slowly starting to crack, and tomorrow is extremely important, as we bears are looking for a close outside that trendline to get the selling started.  A close tomorrow inside that trendline/channel would really hurt the bears that are looking for a sell off next week.

Next week is generally bullish, because it’s option expiration week.  So, that is another strike against the bears.  They are truly starving every bear into extinction.   Will there be any selling next week?  I think they will, but I’ve been wrong many times before.

Typically, they will pin the market on whatever level benefits them the most.  So what level is that on the SPY?  You can look at the open interest at each price level too get some type of idea, but it’s not always accurate.  Looking at the 117 level, there is now 213,816 puts and only 100,087 calls.  That could be the place they pin it next week.  Also, the 110 level, (which seems a long ways away from where we currently are), has 213,749 puts, and only 10,918 calls.

Needless to say… we’re not closing below that level next week!  The 117 level looks more likely, and of course my puts will expire worthless at that level (because that’s the strike price I purchased).  None of this means anything if they decide to tank it next week, (that’s what many of us are hoping for).  On a dump out, you could easily see 50 spx points, which would be 5 spy points.  That would put us in the 113 area, which would also fill that gap up around that level on March 5th.

For now we must simply wait it out, as Fridays’ usually have light volume… which means it’s not likely to do much tomorrow.  I hope it does, but I’m not counting on it.  I’ll just hang tight until next week, and see if they take her down or not?

Best of luck to all of us…

Red

Time is running out as the bulls are starting to weaken!  Soon they will fall over from the poison that they’ve been given.  The news out will become increasing worse, causing more panic too occur.  Yes folks, the moment of reckoning, (for the bears at least), is now upon us.

One thing clear to me about today’s tape was that the big institutions are now selling.  They of course know what is too come, and what news will be released in the coming days and weeks.  Will it be the Job’s Claims numbers tomorrow, or some other event?  I don’t know what it will be, but I suspect that we will wake up one morning to a large gap down, and the market won’t look back…

The reason blamed behind the selling around 2pm on Wednesday was that Tom Hoeing, President of the Federal Reverse Bank of Kansas, came out around 2pm est. Wednesday and stated that he thought they should raise the interest rates to 1%.

Are they preparing us for the coming meltdown? It seems so… We must keep our ears open, as they are now letting the market know ahead of time… that more bad news is coming.

So at this point, it doesn’t look like the Dow will reach the 11,000 mark, nor will the SPX reach 1200… YET!  Remember, the summer months are still too come, and this current high is likely only temporary.  I think we will form a rounded top on this current rally from the March, 2009 low.  The real peak will probably occur in the summer, and every last bear will be dead by then.

I hope to still be around, and have successfully navigated these treacherous waters.  I know many other’s will fall into the bulls’ meat grinder, as their master’s need to eat sometime… and of course they like bull steak just as well as bear steak.

Playing this game isn’t easy, as it’s designed for them to always win, and you to lose.  So, you must learn to read what the dealers have in their hand, as they most definitely can see what’s in your hand.

Of course, there’s always a few who win at the table.  If not, then the house couldn’t keep anyone playing the game anymore.  So, beating the house isn’t an option… nor is it possible, but becoming the player that wins that hand is.  You must use this knowledge to out play the other players… as they are the ones’ you can beat.

So it now seems that everyone has laid their bets on “black”, as it’s come up black for the last trillion days in a row… but I think it’s time for “red” to pop up.  That’s why I’m short, and will add to my short position tomorrow, if I get the chance too.

If you are long, take your profits, and sit this one out.  Give us bears a chance to dance with the pretty girl… will you?

Red

This Bear is just sleeping, but he might as well be dead, as the bulls are killing every last bear out there! Will this poor fellow be next?"

Are all the Bears dead now?  It seems so, as other blogs have given up on the market and are closing up.  Over on Cobra’s blog (who’s isn’t closing, by the way), a commenter mentioned that a blog called “Trading the Odds” is closing up.  He also stated that another blog had closed too, but I’m not sure which one it was?

Then there is my friend Anna, over at Hot Option Babe… who is also very worn out by all the nonsense in the market, and thinking of closing her blog too.  I hope not, and I really don’t think she will.  She just needs to take a break from all the bull shit and go relax on the beach or something.  (Sorry about the cussing, but sometimes you just need to tell it like it is!)

Mole, over at Evil Speculator shut his doors down for a day or so… about a week ago.  But, he’s back up now.  He never really left, just took some time off from posting, is more accurate.  Even Alexander Grant over at AMBG Trading has cut his posts down from almost daily, to once every week or so.  Why post when nothing changes? (Everyone mentioned here can be found in my blogroll… except “Trading the Odds”).

I wonder if it was the same during the 2007 summer rally?  Is that a sign that the “TOP” is in? (Short term TOP of course).  It’s called “Bear Blog Capitulation”!  Look at the the put to call ratio on the chart below.  That’s lower then the reading in the 2007 high!  Every bear that’s still alive is now bullish.  Too many people are on one side now.  This boat has got to sink soon!

It makes you wonder if the government has super computers scanning the Internet, reading the bearish blogs, and predicting sentiment from that data?  Probably…

But regardless of whether they do, or don’t, it doesn’t really matter, as all the bears are dead broke by now.  That’s quite obvious by the extremely light volume.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend, we are now at day 10 of a sideways movement.  But, we did breakout of that range between 1160-1180, so I guess the count isn’t valid anymore?

So, I guess we are going higher again tomorrow, as trying to predict the top is useless at this point.  It will go higher until the government’s target price and date is met.  When?  I still think it will be this week, but I don’t know Jack Shit it seems?  Do you know Jack Shit?  Let me introduce you… (you might have too hit the play button twice?)

Well, there’s your daily humor.  At least I have the good fortune of posting whatever I want, and not just charts like all the other blogs out there.  I’d post another chart if you really want me too… but basically, I’ll sum it up for you like this…

This is the market direction until the Obama Gangster Gang turns it around.

Red

Contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in February, a survey from the National Association of Realtors showed, a rise the group said may be attributed to home buyers taking advantage of a soon-to-expire tax credit.

The Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January.  (Full Story Here… don’t waste your time).

Blah, Blah, Blah… the housing market is improving… let’s dance!

The media can spin anything into a positive… can’t they?  Believe me, the market didn’t rally because of the housing data.  Just another bullish Monday… like the last Monday, and the last Monday, and the last Monday (sorry, the record has a scratch in it… let me move the needle)

The volume was only 97 million shares on the SPY today.  Looking back, it looks too be the lightest day in the last 2 years.  Of course with such light volume, I could’ve pushed the market up with my $6.66 (from selling my dog, kid’s and wife last week… to go short with).

Volume volume volume… without it, the money in your piggy bank is enough to rally the market higher.  They should have just closed the market today, if they weren’t going to do any trading in it.  Maybe tomorrow will be the start of the coming down move?  It’s just a guessing game at this point.

The market will fall when the government wants it to fall… no sooner, no later.  It’s really that simple.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend report, we do see that on just about every previous sideways trading range, the market popped higher just before the sell off began.

I thought that Thursday’s new high was enough of a pop higher before the selling, but now it seems like it still wants to go a little higher?  Was today’s new high enough?  Maybe?  I don’t know?  With the 1191-1193 spx level, and the Dow 11,000… just a hair above, it seems destine to go there.

Trying to think like they do is the hard part.  They are most likely trying to figure out what rest of the traders are thinking, so they can fool them and take their money.  So, what does the rest of us retail traders think?  I think most traders are now looking for the 200 ma above, as the next likely target.

And, since every trader has heard the old saying “Sell in May, and Go Away”… that leads me to believe that May will be an up month, which is the opposite of what most people are thinking now.  I also think that most blogs out there are now calling for more UP, mostly saying 1200 plus on the SPX.

Are they going to be right, or will the market fool them?  If they are going to be fooled again, I think it’s going to take another “big event” to get the selling started.  What will they stage this time?  When will it be?  Over the coming weekend, or sometime during the current week?  I do feel that they will surprise everyone, and a gap down on some opening day is highly likely.

So for now… we wait patiently for the big surprise to be announced.  Of course if you’re not already short, you probably won’t get a chance to get in.  You know how they pay that game by now.  I know I’ve said it before… but we are very very close now.

The Treasury notes rallied up to 4.0 % today… and that’s not something the market likes.  A reaction is coming soon.  Remember, looking back at the past 5 times this happened, 2 of the starting days were on a Wednesday, and 2 of the days were on a Friday… with only 1 on a Monday.

That leads me to think that Tuesday will be flat, and if the selling is to start this week… then Wednesday is more likely.   Let’s hope the Fed’s announce something unwelcome by the market tomorrow, as I’m really tired of this merry-go-around!

Red

This is not based on the usual Technical Analysis, as most of those charts have failed recently.  I’m simply looking at the odds of a breakout to the upside after trading sideways for so many days.  As you can clearly see, every time the market broke down, except for the November 9th to December 21st area.  But, that area clearly shows a lot of whipsaw action up and down as the bulls and bears fought it out.  These last 8 days don’t look anything like that, as the bulls clearly ruled.  The bears never even tried to have a sell off.  All the other periods look more similar to most recent range.  This leads me to believe another sell off is coming within a few more days.

I think the market will fall quickly to the moving averages around 1120, and then bounce back up.  If they fall again, the 200 dma should be around 1070 by then, and that would be my final target down, before another large rally taking us into the summer months.

Now, does that mean it will sell off on Monday?  Not necessarily… but it could?  I really doubt it though, as the jobs’ number’s were bad, but not bad enough to cause huge selling on Monday.  Remember, most Mondays’ are bullish, and without some global political event happening, I do expect another low volume day on Monday.

I think the event we are looking for is the Fed Meeting.  A surprise raise in the discount rates for the banks is what I expect to be blamed for the sell off.  Of course this could be the one exception, and we could have a break out to the upside.  The odds are that the next move will  down, and playing the odds is about all we can do in this crazy market.

I’m not going to go over all the other TA’s, as they haven’t be accurate lately.  We all know by now that the markets can stay in overbought or oversold conditions for a lot longer then what they appear too be by using the MACD’s,  Stochastic, and various other charts.

Instead, this weekend update is simply about the number of days the market has trading in a range before making a move out of the range.  I could see another couple days of sideways movement before any move down starts (at most).

Looking a little deeper into the past moves downs, we see…

1. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on January 19th, and then the sell off on Wednesday the 20th.
2. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on October 22nd, and then the sell off on Friday the 23rd.
3. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear intraday on September 23rd, and then a sell off the rest of the day (which was a Wednesday, with 1080.15 as the high).
4. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Friday, August 28th, and then the sell off on Monday the 31st.
5. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Thursday, August 13th, and then the sell off on Friday the 14th.

Notice that every time we had a “rally up to squeeze out the last bear”… just before the down move started.  Did we have that “rally up” on Friday?  Possibly, as we did squeak out a new high… which was also done on just about all the previous times too.

Also, notice that most of the sell offs were started later in the week, with 2 on Wednesday and 2 on Friday… and only one on Monday.  So, it could start on Monday… but I expect it to happen later in the week with some news that the market doesn’t like.

What is the news?  Who knows?  I suspect the government will be at the root of the news though… not just bad earnings on a few companies.  So, I’m playing the odds, and that tells me that a sell off is the most likely path next week.

Best of luck to all of us… in this Casino we call the Stock Market!

Red

As you all know by now, the government likes to sell the dollar to pump up the market.  And it’s no mistake that the dollar has been pounded hard lately.  However, there is huge support coming in just a hair under todays’ close.  Look at that lower rising trend line (in blue) that starts from back in December of last year.

If it breaks, then the market is off to the moon, but if it holds… and bounces off of it, then the market will fall.  There is still a little bit of downside left, before it actually touches it… but not much.  I’d give it one to two more days at most.  That means that Monday could still be an up day, if the job’s numbers’ are viewed as positive tomorrow?

Of course I’d expect the numbers to already be “baked into the cake”… so to speak.  Meaning that regardless of what they actually are, the market has already picked the next move.  If todays’ new high wasn’t yet enough to squeeze out the last bear, then a quick pop on Monday could still happen… before the much anticipated sell off occurs.

Not that the sell off is guaranteed, but it’s the likely next move… before any summer rally to 1200 plus occurs.  So now we wait for the jobs numbers tomorrow, and then to see how the market views them next Monday.  Regardless of the number’s, the media will have 3 day’s to turn them into something positive.  I think the best we can hope for… is a flat close on Monday.  That would be a huge relief for the bears, as every Monday since I don’t know when… since I was born?  … has been bullish.

I’d had about enough of the Bullish BS… how about you?

Red

The Bulls have certainly been having their fun these last few weeks.  They tease the bear by acting like they are going to let him have a little fun.  This morning was no different as the bulls teased the bear by selling off on the Bad ADP job’s numbers, only to rally back most of the loss throughout the rest of the day.

Tomorrow should be no different as the light volume should keep the market up.  But I suspect that by next week, the bear will rise again!  The bull won’t know what hit him, as the bear is sneaky and will attack from behind.  Payback will be brutal and swift as bear seeks his revenge.

The government is already preparing us for bad job’s numbers on Friday, by releasing the bad ADP numbers earlier today.  They are lowering the expectations by the market… which could lead everyone to believe that the numbers are really bad, or they could “pull another dead rabbit out of a hat” and beat the estimates largely?  I don’t know which will happen, but a good number (from the part time new hiring of census workers) could also panic the market, as fears of rising interests rates from a growing economy come back into play.

Of course if the numbers are bad, then there is no fear that the government will raise rates, but if they’re too bad… then the market may lose faith in the recovering economy and still sell off?  After all, the supposedly bullish rise in the market was based on a recovering economy (all though we all know that it was based on the PPT buying up the market with printed dollars from the Stimulus plan).

So, my feeling is that the market will sell off next week regardless of what the numbers are.  That’s probably why the government didn’t push up the release to Thursday, or delay them until next Monday.  They know that’s it’s really a “NO Win Situation”, and they are hoping that people will calm down over the 3 day weekend.

I think that it’s a perfect time to also release some other bad political news, or global event to blame the coming sell off on.  Blame it on Greece or some other country… but not the bad or good jobs numbers.  Yes, I guess we could rally higher or trade sideways for another week… but I seriously doubt it.  We are now at 7 days in a row of sideways trading between about 1160 and 1180.

We did that back in the first week of January too… and you see what came next.  It was also about 7 days before a fall to the down side.  Looking back on the daily chart, I see that many times the market would trade sideways, in a tight range, for a week or more before falling hard.  Of course we could have the usual bullish Monday again, but I think we are overdue for a sell off on Monday.

I don’t know if it happens or not, but it certainly would surprise a lot of bulls… and bears.  Ask yourself how many bears will go short over the 3 day weekend?  Not many I would guess?  They are so used too the bullish Monday’s (plus time decay on options) that they will wait until next week before getting short.

It’s hard to say for sure what they are thinking, but I’m sure it’s aim is to steal the money from the new retail bulls, and not to allow the bears to profit from the sell off.  I’d say that they want to steal the bears’ money too, but all the bears are now broke, as they stole that money many weeks ago.

Just basing my decision on the number of days sideways, compared to previous moves in the past, I’d say we are within a couple of days of a big move… which have the odds favoring the downside.  I’m probably going to get short tomorrow if the market rallies.  If it sells off, then I’ll probably wait until Monday for the bounce back up.  However, I do expect the market to float higher on light volume tomorrow.  Not much of course, but higher none the less…

Red

This market is now so ugly it needs “double bagged”!  But, at this point I still have too believe that we will see 11,000 DOW this week, as the bears are now dead and bulls have little resistance to stop them.  This pushes the coming fall out to next week… or the following week, or the following month, or the following year, or after I’m dead and buried.  Maybe it will correct in my next life?  I’m hope I’m reincarnated in the bankster family… as then I’ll know where the market is going.

Writing about this market lately has been extremely challenging as nothing is happening.  Maybe the ADP jobs number will give us some excitement tomorrow?  But, after that… it’s back to being boring for the rest of the day.  Thursday should be just as boring as most traders will leave early for the 3 day holiday weekend.

However, the market is looking really tired now, as each day is having pops and intraday drops… indicating that retail traders are buying the news, and the big institutions are selling on those pops.  I have no doubt that we are still within spitting distance of a big dump in the market, but it seems that it can drink a few more beers before it pukes its’ guts out.

And believe me… this market is seriously drunk now.  It needs too throw up before I do!  Reading the comments from yesterdays’ post had me agreeing that someone needs to puke now… and I rather it be the market then my fellow traders.  So hang in there gang… just a few more spins on the merry go round before the fat pig loses it.

Red

As every minute tick’s by, another grain of sand falls inside the hour glass we call the Stock Market.  Eventually, the sand will all be gone and so will the rally.  But when you ask?  The only people that can answer that question are the insider’s in Goldman Sachs and the Government… which are basically the same entity now anyway.

I’d love too tell my fellow bears that the market is going down hard this week, but it’s not likely to happen.  That jobs report on Friday is probably horrible… which is why they didn’t move it up to Thursday, or out to Monday.  They want to give the Obama Gangster Gang (OGG from now on… kinda cool, isn’t it?) the long 3 day weekend to lie, steal, cheat, manipulate, fabricate, and spin the bad news into something positive, so the market won’t tank on Monday.

With that said, I still think we will see some selling next week.  Don’t know how much, as we might only get to 1150, and reverse back up?  Hard to say on that one.  It’s again… all about volume.  Big volume equals big institutions selling… and that means we are going down further as small moves down aren’t enough profit for them.  They need 5-10% corrections to make it worth their time on swing trades.

Of course they still have Hal (their top secret computer trading program) that manipulates the market up and down daily to steal money from the day traders, by front running the market.  Yes, it’s illegal… but who cares?  They are doing “God’s” work, and seeing what trade orders that are coming down the pipeline, just split seconds before they are executed (allowing Goldman to place their orders ahead of them, at a lower price), is perfectly OK in their eye’s.

What’s the big deal anyway?  Stealing a few billion dollars a year from dumb Americans who are too busy watching American Idol and Jerry Springer, isn’t really a crime… now is it?  Besides, they won’t miss it… just keep them high on legal drugs that the doctor prescribes for every little ache and pain they get from such a tough life of sitting in that uncomfortably arm chair… pressing buttons on the remote control, causing their fingers to go numb as they get brainwashed from the bought and paid for media telling them that it’s safe now to go spend again.

Yes, my dear readers, it’s now safe to go back into the market and spend your last dime on some new electronic toy like the Apple iPhone, iPad, iPod, and iUnbelievably that the public is so iStupid!  Needless to say… the market is likely to trade sideways to higher all week, and will probably hit 11,000 on the Dow.

Next week will have a lot of earnings coming out, and could be the bad news we are looking for?  But, you must understand that the OGG isn’t the only one that can lie and fabricate numbers… so can the CEO’s of those companies announcing earnings.

A correction down to that fake print area around 1075 spx is coming… but when?   Thinking outside the box, and trying to think like the OGG, would have me tanking the market in the summertime, and rallying into the fall/winter season.  This is the opposite of what most people are expecting.  I think we can all agree that if everyone is expecting something to happen… it won’t.

So, what if we sold off in April and rallied back in May and June to put in a double top, or maybe a lower high?  Then sell off early throughout July and August… pass Stimulus package TWO in September, and rally the rest of the year.  Just trying to think like the OGG…

What would Jesus do? What would the OGG do?

Red

What can be said that hasn’t already been said?  The market is insanely overbought now, and way too many indicators are rolling over now and pointing down.  The MACD Histogram’s on the daily charts are pointing down, and have crossed over the zero line on many different indexes.  The MACD averages are rolling over and touching, or have already crossed over it.

So yes… we should correct down next week, but will we?  Friday is a holiday next week and the market is closed.  That means only 4 trading days… and yet the government is still going to release the jobs report on Friday.  Why didn’t they move it up to Thursday?  Does that mean that the number is horrible?  Probably so…

Regardless, unless the big institutions start the selling, any retail selling will be bought up on light volume.  That doesn’t mean I don’t think we won’t sell off some next week.  I could easily see the 1150 spx support level being tagged sometime next week.

However, breaking that support level and heading on down to the support area around 1115 spx, is probably not going to happen next week… UNLESS, some big political news happens to scary the market!  That’s really what we bears are hoping for, isn’t it?  It’s sad that they won’t let the market trade up and down fairly, so both bulls and bears could profit.  If that happened, then we wouldn’t look forward to some war to break out, country to go bankrupt, or terrorist attack to happen.

Instead, they manipulate the market to such extremes that the only way it will fall is on some horrible news like that.  I really don’t want to profit from something so negative, that could have people dying, just for the market to sell off.  Why can’t they let it happen naturally, from bad earnings, jobs reports, etc… so that the market could actually be valued fairly is beyond my understanding.

Yes, I know they want to steal everyone’s money, and make all the profit they can.  However, it could still be done without creating chaos, and putting innocent people on the streets by bankrupting the company they work at, just to eliminate the competition like Goldman did to Lehman brothers.

The point I guess I’m getting too, is that I don’t see a big sell off without some really bad news (possible war event,  another country bankruptcy announcement, terrorist attack, swine flu, Greece defaults, you name it?).  The first level down is of course the 1150 area, then 1115 area, and finally the 1075 area… where I caught a 107.38 spy fake print and Sundancer caught a 107.82 spy fake print.

Ultimately, I think we are headed there… probably within the next month.  But, the government is smarter (more evil and corrupt is more accurate of a word), then I am… which means they could manipulate this market sideways in a choppy fashion throughout the next 6 months or so, and finally crash it in the fall.

A move down to 1115 might be all we bears get from them, as the weekly chart is still pointing up.  It needs to rollover soon, if we are to state that 1180 is the high.  If we manage to take out the 104 (spy) level, then I think the weekly chart will roll over and the market is done!

That stupid fake print tells me that we won’t take it out, but instead rally back from that level and either put in a new high in the summer months or trade sideways in a range until this fall.  It’s a really tough market to forecast, as it doesn’t follow any patterns that can be tracked accurately.  Of course that’s the way they want it… as we’d all be rich if it were easy to forecast.

So, let’s not get our hopes up until volume comes back into the market.  That’s unlikely to happen next week, as most traders will be waiting for the job’s report on Friday.  Again, I do suspect that we will hit 1150 next week, as many traders will take some profit ahead of the report.  Plus, the end of the month and quarter window dressing is now over, and the big institutions can dump the shares they just bought, (so they could report to their clients that they owned them… as their clients will assume they have owned those companies for the entire 3 month quarter, but we know they only owned them for a few days).  That’s window dressing my friends… clean up your house before the relatives come over for one day, and trash it the rest of the year!

Anyway, let’s hope for something bad for the market too be announced… but not bad for people of course.  I don’t want innocent people too be hurt or die for the bears to profit a little… but I wouldn’t shed any tears for the thugs in Washington DC, or banksters!

http://www.taxfree15.com

Red