While the jury is still in determining the market direction from here, I’m leaning bearish at this point.  However, I do see Monday as an UP day, but after that I think the overall week will be down.  For the upside, I don’t have anymore short term prints except the 111.28 spy print that I posted Friday.

Since that was an intraday print, it should be hit within 1-2 days… meaning Monday, (since it failed to hit there on Friday).  That would also be right at the falling channel’s upper trendline (shown on the 60 minute chart).  I don’t have any other upside prints except the longer term print of DIA 118.16 (about 11,800 Dow), which is a long ways away right now.

But on the downside, I have a short term print of 107.12 spy from a week ago, and Anna caught it again on the intraday chart on Thursday, further confirming the accuracy of the print.  The level she seen was 107.35 spy, so I’m pretty sure we will see that level next week some time.

On a longer term, I have the Dow 8300 print from several weeks back.  So when will that play out?  If that weekly chart rolls over next week (which could happen if we close down around the 107 level next week), then we could hit that low within a few weeks.

I don’t for sure yet, as until the weekly chart rolls over (the daily too of course, and I expect that to happen early next week on it), it’s still possible for the market to go up more.  But, I’m 70-80% bearish for next week, and I do expect that 107 FP area to be hit before next Friday.

At that point, I’d need to look at the charts again to see what the weekly chart does.  Again, if it rolls over, the market is toast!  That 8300 Dow will be upon us before the end of August.  And, there’s enough important data coming out next week that could easily cause the sell off to happen.

On Tuesday we have Personal Income and Personal Spending, which will move the market one way or the other.  On Thursday we have Continuing Claims and Initial Claims out, and finally Friday has the Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, and Consumer Credit… all are “market movers”!

There are plenty of reasons to blame the sell off on next week, as I really can’t see all of those reports being positive and causing another move up in the market.  This leads me more and more bearish, as I just don’t think the weekly chart has enough juice left for a breakout move to the upside.  Especially now that the daily has ran out of steam too.

So from a technical point of view, the weekly and daily charts are running on empty for power now.  I’d say they’ve used up 90% of their juice, and could roll over at any time now.  The monthly is still bearish, and only took a “pause” period last month, which still didn’t do any damage to the overall trend down.

And of course from a “news point of view”, next week could scare a lot of bulls from staying long.  We all know that the market is manipulated and 100% controlled (you should know that, if you are a regular reader), which means they could make all the reports look positive, by getting out their erasers and changing the data.

But, they also follow technical patterns too… especially on the larger time frame charts, as they are just too hard to manipulate.  The intraday moves don’t take as much money to control, as turning around the Titanic would (meaning the monthly charts’ down trend)!

Ok, so Monday I’m looking to go up to that 111.28 print by the close.  Then I’m looking for the 60 minute chart too have peaked out, and the daily to get even closed to have a bearish cross on the MACD lines.  Since Tuesday starts out the week with the first of many reports that can move the market, I’d expect that to be the start of move down toward our 107 area FP.

The market moves fast on the way down, so who knows how fast it could hit that target low?  Bad news on Tuesday could cause us to hit that level before the Thursday news, because traders will be selling in fear that the job’s data will be horrible.  The old “buy the rumor, sell the fact”, or in this case… “sell the rumor, MAYBE? buy the fact”.

That’s my crystal ball reading for next week…

Red

But the selling isn’t done completely.  While I think we will close positive tomorrow, after a morning sell off, next week should start out down.  The charts tell me that these last 3 down days were likely the start of a wave 1 move, with the close of tomorrow being the start of a wave 2 back up.

However, I do think we could sell off in the morning first, and then rally the rest of the day… closing positive at the end. The downside target tomorrow isn’t known, but certainly the 1085-1090 area is the first area I’d expect hit.  If that breaks, then a move down to our 107.12 (Anna got 107.35) spy FP would be the next area of support.

If we do go down that far tomorrow morning, then you definitely should expect a move back up throughout the rest of the day to occur.  We have a 69% chance of closing green according to Cobra’s after the bell report.  That makes a lot of sense too me, as the 60 minute chart needs to work off the oversold conditions it now has.

So, where ever we open at tomorrow morning, any selling should be short lived as the 5 and 15 minute charts bottom out and move back up throughout the rest of the day.  Looking at the afterhours prints for clues, I see a 111.28 spy print showing up as a “high” now, but we haven’t been there.  Is that another FP, telling us the closing level tomorrow?  Could be?

That would certainly be a positive close, if we went back up there into the afternoon session tomorrow.  If that’s the case, then I can’t see the 107 area being hit tomorrow morning, but instead the first support area of 1085-1090 spx.  So, for you bears, look for the selling to stop after the first 1-2 hours in the day.

And, since tomorrow is Friday, it could stop within the first hour as the traders leave early for the weekend.  While it would be great to see the 107 area hit tomorrow morning, I’m giving it low odds right now.  Let’s see how fast it moves to the double bottom area first (from today’s low), then we can see if it going to break that support or bounce and move back higher the rest of the day.

A quick move down (with volume) would indicate it is likely to break support, but if it takes its’ sweet time, and doesn’t hit that area until the 10:30-11:00 am time frame, then it will likely hold, and a move back up would be expected.  Hope this makes sense to you guys…

Red

Put simply… possible move down at the open, and a slow grind back up in the afternoon until the close.

Red

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We hit a high of 112.37 SPY today… is that enough?

It’s hard to say yet if today’s high fulfills our 112.41 FP, but tomorrow should be the last attempt higher. Since the 15 minute chart is in negative territory and ready to roll back up tomorrow, there could be one more gap up, or flat open and a quick run up to fulfill the print exactly.

However, many times in the past I’ve noticed that they either fall short a little or pierce through it a little… and then reverse directions. And, since today traded mostly sideways, it formed a bull flag on the lower time frame charts. That would support a possible quick move up tomorrow morning, and then selling off the rest of the day.

Either way, a turn back down in the market should be no more then 2 days away, with it starting as early as tomorrow. Our downside target is the 107.12 spy area (or the 107.35 print Anna caught today), once the selling begins. Since nothing news worthy is out tomorrow, we might have to wait until Thursday to see the selling begin.

So hang in there bears, your dinner should be ready soon.

Red

No reason to another long post, as nothing much changed today.  As I said in the video’s, we are either going up to 112.41 spy or down to 107.12 spy.  It looks like we are going up first.  Once 112.41 is hit, I expect it to pull back from there and head down some into the rest of the week.

We could choppy around that area for awhile, as I’m not expect it to just fall off a cliff… back down to 107.12, as that might takes some time.  It might not happen at all, as I’m not exactly sure on the accuracy of that print?  But regardless of the downside target, the upside one should be hit very soon now… as we are within spitting distance of it.

Red

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The bulls are back in town!

Yes my dear reader, it looks like the low is in for awhile, as the bulls are back, and they mean business.  Last week I got trick by seeing what I wanted to see… the bearish side.  I was bearish again after the previous Fridays’ huge drop on opx week.  Then another small sell off on Wednesday of this week, as Bernanke spooked the market.

It was looking like the bulls were done as they hit the the top trendline of the falling channel since the April highs, and failed again at it.  But on Thursday, the PPT came to the rescue and rallied the market hard on horrible economy data and various earnings reports.

The 1060 level held strong as thousands more lose their jobs and can’t find work.  So instead of gapping down on Thursday morning, we gapped up and never looked back.  Go Bulls, you crack head sons of b’s….  Manipulation at it’s finest!  Clear and simple!  There was absolutely NO reason to go up, and a thousand reason to tank, but the operators do what they do best… steal the little guys money!

It’s funny how the previous week I was bullish, and then fell into my own trap on the big sell off days that happened.  It played out exactly as I stated it would during the previous weeks’ video’s.  But this week I was dead wrong on my bearish view.  I should have given that weekly chart more attention, as it was clearly telling me that the trend is UP now.

I ignored it this weekend, and only focused on the daily, 60 and 15 minute charts… which was a clear mistake, as the weekly keep supporting all those charts, by not allowing them to roll over as I thought they would.  So in the end, even though this Thursday was pure manipulation by the PPT, the weekly chart did support a move up for this week… just not a 300 point, shove it down your throat and make you choke on your shorts kind of move.

However, we must always remember that the market is designed to fool you and steal your money.  It’s just a big casino created by the crooks, to rob the little guy.  How else can they keep the world in slavery, but to lie, steal, cheat, arrest, murder, belittle, frame, assassinate, embarrass, etc… you get the picture.

But one day we’ll all be gone to that happy place in the sky they call heaven… where we can play funner games like sword fighting with Angels (and Demons too I guess?).  Ahhhh… what fun that will be.  Let’s just hope they have some other type of gambling there… maybe Bingo or something?  LOL

Moving on now…

Next week should be interesting as we still have the FP of 112.41 spy (about 1120 spx) which hasn’t been filled yet.  Then I seen one on Thursday of this week, showing 107.12 spy… meaning that we will probably go up to the 112.41 print first, and then back down to 107.12 to fill the gap made on Thursday morning of this week.

Will it play out like that?  Who knows, but it seems logical for that to happen.  That doesn’t mean we can’t go down to 107.12 first and then squeeze on up to 112.41 by the August opx… which is entirely possible.  We all know how they like to run the market high during opx week, so they don’t have too pay out on all the shorts in the market.

So, if we fall first, then the buy area should be that gap fill area of 107.12, and then the opx high should then be the 112.41 print.  The weekly chart is pushing up hard now, so we could be going up for several months now, as I stated in my video’s from the previous weeks (of course I ignored all that this week… duh).

If that’s the case, then the final high should be the DIA 118.16 print… which could be hit in late September, just after the crooks cash there bribery, robbery, payoff, etc… checks through the Vatican banks (the only banks in the world that don’t report anything to anyone).

This is during the September 9th-20th annual Pilgrimage of the Legatus Group.  During these events, the thugs that rule the world make decisions on where they plan to take the market next.  The last Pilgrimage was held earlier this year February the 4th-6th… which marked the bottom of a sell off.

What followed was a bear whipping that lasted 3 months.  They must have turned on the money tree after that meeting, at rallied like the sell off never happened.  Of course that event was planned many months in advance, and the bottom was told to everyone with the FP I got back in January, showing 1047 on the spx, when it really closed around 1140 something that day.

That was my first experience with a FP, and when it hit that 1044.50 intraday low on February the 5th, and had a massive reverse (that didn’t stop until the April high), I got burnt and lost a bunch of money on that move.  I learned then that the market was 100% controlled, and manipulated to take everyones’ money.

Now I pay very close attention to those FP’s, and important meetings by the crooks that run the world.  The Illuminati have a public face, and that’s when they get together in the Bilderberg group and have meetings.  Policy changes are done there, and decisions are made as to where to take the market next.

The private face of the Illuminati is through the Legatus group, where they poses a good church going people, all getting together to celebrate God… it’s all B.S.!  The group is nothing but a place for all the crooks to get together and funnel all the money tell stole through the Vatican, the most corrupt and evil organization on earth.

These are the people that are using “The Book of Dead” to bring forth demons from other dimensions and other times.  Most people (that study that stuff, I don’t… but keep my ears open a little), say that these demons are Reptilian Aliens that are in the lower levels of Vatican City.

Well, I don’t know about that… but I do know that when the Illuminati get together, either through their more pubic face in the Bilderberg Group, or their less know private face in the Legatus group… the market changes direction!  So, should we continue up until the fall event is over, you can look for a nice crash following it.

However, we have that Yahoo FP of Dow 8300 from a week or two ago (which could be but up to trick the masses, as I’ll gotten some feathers ruffled from postings all these FP’s lately… meaning that it’s Fake FP, put up to deceive us).

And currently, the charts don’t support a move down to that area now, as the weekly is pushing up the market pretty hard now.  But, should we take out the 1010 spx low next week, (not likely), or next month, then I’d say we will go to 8300.

The timing of these FP’s are always unknown.  We only know that once we are headed in that direction, and get close to that target, look for a reversal when it’s hit.  So, for next week I believe we will go down and hit the 107.12 print first and then rally back to 112.41 by August opx.

I’m just guessing of course, as forecasting this market is like trying to pick winning lottery tickets sometimes.  But, the weekly chart says we go up for the next few months.  However, the daily is overbought and should roll over next week… which is the reason I think we go down first and back up into opx week… which is traditionally bullish anyway.

Hope that helps give you a longer term view, as the short term is pretty clouded right now.  Some choppy waters lay ahead I believe.

Good luck to all you bears, and bulls too of course (as we all have to be fed straw from our masters from time to time.  After all, it’s better then starving like the bears do).

Red

Rally, Rally, Rally… Go Bulls!  Of course you know I’m joking now, as I’m a bear by nature.  And today certainly put a hurting on the bears.  It took me totally by surprise, as the charts looked very bearish yesterday.  That goes to show you that just as soon as you think you’ve figured it out… they change the game plan.

I honestly have no clue about tomorrow, but I’d expect a “pause” day, as that’s what usually follows a big move up (or down).  Since we have now clearly broken outside the falling channel from the April high, I’d say we are going up next week too.

We still have a 112.41 spy print too be filled, and if this rally is going to continue, we’ll be there in no time flat.  Just layoff some more people, cut back on earnings forecasts, talk bad about the economy… and we’ll rally to the sky.  LOL.  But serious, is this the most screwed up market you have ever seen?  Nothing about today was bullish… absolutely NOTHING!

It was 100% manipulated to squeeze out the shorts… and boy did it ever work!  And shorts left now are broke, and homeless.  I hope all you bear survived it!

Ok, on to tomorrow…

The gap up and sideway trading is a major bull flag.  So, if it plays out, we should open and go higher tomorrow too.  Personally though, I think we will pull back a little, to retest the falling trendline around 1080 area now.  Then a bounce from there to start the next move up should occur.

This all assumes that “they” want to rally the market up higher, and aren’t just tricking the bulls right now.  The charts could be read either way, so I can see lot’s of bullishness in them and still find some bearishness too.  Basically, if the market doesn’t confirm tomorrow, and sells off further then the 1080 backtest area (putting in back inside the channel), then we are still in “whipsaw” alley.

However, it’s looking more and more like a new up trend should start now.  With all the bearish news out there, and we still rally on it… that has too tell you that we’re not likely going back down anytime soon.

But, they did leave a gap around that 1070 level that will need too be filled… eventually!  Not that it’s any comfort for the short term bears, but if you hold long enough we will revisit that gap and fill it.

Well, that’s about all the bad news I can stand for today (at least for the bears), so I’ll close in saying that I really don’t know what tomorrow will bring…

Red

You gotta love it!  Just as soon as Ben Bernankes’ FOMC minutes are released, the market tanks.  Of course from a technical point of view, it was ready to sell off anyway… but someone has to be blamed, right?  LOL.  Well, tomorrow should also be a down day too, as the 60 minute chart has now rolled over and is ready to cross the zero level.

The daily chart put in a lower histogram tower, and the MACD lines are getting closer to crossing back down again.  The weekly is now sitting with a topping tail on its’ candle, but of course the week hasn’t ended yet… so that could all change.

The 15 minute chart is oversold and pointing slightly back up, but the 5 minute is over bought… meaning that any move back up will be short lived, as both charts re-align themselves to point back down at the same time.  With the 60 minute chart putting downward pressure, I can’t really see the 15 minute chart pushing the market back up very far.

The sideways action for the last couple of hours put in a bear flag on the 5 and 15 minute charts.  While it’s possible that we go up a little, allowing the 15 to work off its’ oversold condition, we could just as easily continue to fall lower while it does it.

Overall, we are still in the falling channel, and until we get outside it… I’m bearish.  I was short term bullish last week, but today turned me to short term bearish.  I’m not sure how far we will sell off too, but we should see some more downside for at least tomorrow morning.

Red

Hmmm… If so, then they must all be bull jobs and not bear jobs as the market rallied hard today, although the crooked banks still can’t seem to make a profit… even with FREE Money!  Man, if they ever do make a profit, the market will be at 12,000 Dow in no time!

LOL… I’m just venting as usual, and laughing at how controlled the market really is.  It has nothing to do with the real world,  but instead trades off the charts only… and only uses the news to have something to blame the rally or sell off on.  I said yesterday that we could rally back up to 1080-1085 area, and we did.

Are we done yet?  I’m not sure, as I don’t know if the print I got of 109.79 spy is real (or Memorex… LOL)?  If it’s a real Casper, then that should be our final high tomorrow before resuming the journey back down.  It’s best explained in video, as we have two possibilities now… one UP and one Down.

The upside targets are 109.79 spy, and 112.41 spy (which I believe the first one will be hit tomorrow, but the higher one might not be hit for awhile.  I’m still bearish right now, and only bullish for another day or so).  The downside target is Dow 8300… when?  If we start falling back down this week, then within 2-4 weeks would be I estimate.

Red

Not much changed today, as we had a slightly positive day as I expected.  The high was around 1075, which isn’t quite as high as I’d like to have seen.  I’d like to see a back test of the falling trendline (1080-1085) from the April high before another move down starts.

In this 60 minute chart you can see that the MACD is trying to curl back up, and the histogram bars have now moved up from oversold territory to the zero line.  I’d like to see it go up and make a smaller histogram tower then the previous one, putting in a negative divergence on the chart.

That could push up the market to the 1080-1085 level that I’m looking for, before more selling happens.  We might not get it if Goldman Sachs doesn’t do a good enough job of lying about their earnings?  The high could already be in for the week?  Hard too say… but the charts tell me we need to push up a little more tomorrow first.

We’ll see I guess…

Red

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The Sh*nola About To Hit The Fan!

Sorry for the bluntness… but sometimes you need too make a point stand out.  Next week is looking like a slaughter house for the bulls, as a big move down is likely coming.  While anything is possible, the odds of next week rallying hard like this past week… are slim and none.

Last week I really was expecting it to close out positive, as it appeared that they wanted to take the market up to the 112.41 spy FP from a week back or so.  But, the large sell off on Friday changed everything.  Had they really wanted to take the market up for awhile, they would have closed Friday flat to slightly down.

This now tells me that the big boys are short again, and plan on taking her down below the 1010 bottom.  This next move down is likely to be some kind of wave 3 of 3 of 3… in Elliottwave terms.  Again, I’m no expert in EW, but anyone can count it after the fact… and that’s exactly what I see coming next week.

Monday has a 66% chance of being an UP day, according to Cobra’s statistics (see his blog for more detail.  It’s listed in my blogroll).  Plus, the 60 and 15 minute charts are pretty oversold now, and need to reset themselves.  This will likely take all day Monday and possibly early Tuesday too?

Since the first major earnings announcement (from any company that can move the market) is from Goldman Sachs at 8:30am on Tuesday and then Apple after the market closes, you shouldn’t expect an major selling on Monday.  If Goldman reports like CitiGroup and Bank of America did on Friday… it’s going to get ugly!

Then you have Baidu on Wednesday after the bell, and Amazon and Microsoft on Thursday… also after the bell.  These are the major movers for next week.

Of course I don’t know what they will say, but Apple has reception problems on the antenna of their new iPhone… which tells me they aren’t going to rally the market.  Goldman is likely to report similar to the other banks… meaning they meet estimates, but have a negative future outlook.  I don’t know about Baidu or Microsoft, but the charts of both companies look exactly like the rest of the market… ready to roll over and tank!

At this point, I really can’t see anything but a huge sell off coming.  I’m trying too be neutral here, and look for both bullish and bearish points of views, but this looks very bearish too me next week.  I was bullish all this past week, and did fairly well on my calls.  I was wrong on Friday closing between 108 and 109 spy, but I did call for the day to be a down day.

No one can get them all right, and I’m not one to overlook my bad calls… believe me, I’ve made many.  I’m getting a lot better at reading the charts, and they tell me that disaster is coming!  Throw in a 106.66 closing price on the SPY and a 109.99 high and you’ll have a devil of a time convincing me that we are going back up next week.

Good luck to those brave bulls that went long over the weekend.  You have a 66% chance of an UP day Monday, but I wouldn’t push my luck after that… as there’s nothing bullish in the charts for next week.

(Major FP in 2nd Video)

Red

P.S. This oil disaster isn’t getting better…

Watch this video too…

PLEASE DON’T FORGET TO VOTE ON THE NEW POLL DOWN THE PAGE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY… 

Down we go in the morning to fill the gap, then rally back to close positive.  The bears that went short at the low today just got squeezed hard as the market rallied back into to close.  While we came just a hair shy of the FP of 110.67 spy, I believe we will hit it tomorrow… probably on a gap open.  Then possibly sell off a little the rest of the day, closing tomorrow slightly negative.

I think tomorrow will close below 110 spy, and above 109 spy (probably closer to 109).  Basically, I’m looking for a “gap up and crap” day tomorrow.  They need out of this falling channel, and Friday is the perfect day to gap up above the channel resistance trendline.

Once outside of it, they can fall back down and retest the trendline (at a lower point as the day goes on), which will allow them to close below 110 and still stay outside the channel.  That will allow for next Monday or Tuesday to go up too.

While I think next week could end up DOWN, I do expect them to at least rally up a little further before this rally takes a nice correction.  The move down today could have been the “B” wave down, in an ABC move up?  That means we should go up to the 112.41 FP next week to complete the “C” wave.

I’m just guessing at the Elliottwave counts, because I don’t really know it too well… but it seems logical.  I know the “C” wave is supposed too be longer then the “A” wave, and a move to 112.41 wouldn’t be very much further.  Meaning, if it quit there, and turned back down for a nice down leg, that “C” wave wouldn’t be as long as the “A” wave, but again… I’m not an expert in EW stuff.

But back tomorrow, I’m expecting a slightly down day, around the 109 spy for the close.

Red

Red

P.S.  Please answer NEW POLL… Thanks

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The correction is over now…

Yeah right… and I’ve got some ocean front property for sale in Kansas too!  Once again, the run up into opx week has started off with a bang.  Will it continue until Friday?  Probably not much high, but not much lower either I’m afraid.  This light volume period that we are in now, will allow them to easily gap up over resistance levels by running it up in the pre-market session first just like they did today.

So while there still might be a pullback, I think the 1040 level is off the table now.  Maybe we dip to 1060 for the “B” wave down, but it may not happen until after opx is over.  We could chop sideway until then, and sell off a little bit this week and a little bit more early next week.

However, the big concern is whether or not that week chart continues to roll back up, putting in higher lows on the histogram bars.  That could mean that we aren’t going to go down below the 1010 low for awhile.

If so, then we could just sell off next week, and rally the next few weeks after that (and maybe go for the DIA 118.16 print?).  Now I don’t know if that’s going to happen or not, but the weekly is looking like it wants to roll back up.  So, just keep your eye on that chart, for it would likely put a limit on the downside for now… at least until it turns back down again.

Moving on to tomorrow…

The daily chart is still moving up, but the ADX line is falling now.  It’s losing strength… finally!  The negative and positive DI line are converging together now, which means it should be choppy in the market for the next few days.  No major moves up or down should be expected during this criss-cross period.

The 60 minute chart is losing steam too, after putting in a much smaller histogram tower then the previous one.  With the larger amount of open interest on the 107 spy put (289,000), I’d say that we will not go below 107 before this Friday.  And, since the call side has 110,000 contracts at the 110 level, I’d also say we close below that level on Friday too.

Split the difference and you are looking at 108-109 spy level on Friday.  Which really makes more sense if they plan on dropping back a little early next week to maybe 1060 spx… (1040 would be a gift to the bears, and could halt the up move?), before a move up to 112.41 next week.  I’m not ruling out the possibility that we hit 112.41 spy by this Friday, but the odds are decreasing because the daily chart is losing steam.

So, my best guess for tomorrow is a slightly down day (not likely lower then 1080 area) or flat.  But I don’t expect too much more on the upside without a “pause” day or slight pullback at this point.

Good Luck to everyone…

Red