Weekend Update…
Jul 11th
Monday Update for Tuesday…
Red
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Bullish OPX Week?
Most option expiration weeks are bullish, and I expect this one too be so as well (barring another false flag event, or planned default of some country of course). We are in the light volume season of the summer months now, and the market can easily be control now with a lot less money… aka Free Printed Money given to the PPT.
So, the question is… which way do they want to take the market? I think they want to take it up for awhile, as the media is still very bearish (at it seems that way to me). I’m looking for a small pullback early in the week (Monday and possibly Tuesday too), and then a move higher or sideways the rest of the week.
The daily chart supports a move up this week, but how far is anyone’s guess? Many say it will go to the next Fib. Level of 1085 or so, and others say about 1100. I think we will go to 112.41, either by the end of this week or the next. I think we are in a larger wave 2 up on the weekly chart now, and that would support a higher move up then just the Fib. Levels.
However, it could take 2-4 weeks to get up there… should it not put in a lower low on the histogram bar for the weekly chart to discredit this analysis. The monthly is still bearish, which certainly confirms that we are moving down overall. But, we should have rallies back up within the shorter time frames of course.
I’m not too good a counting elliottwaves, but if the weekly chart did complete a 5 wave down pattern, to form a larger wave 1 down, then we could be in larger wave 2 up now. If so, then several weeks of grinding higher is going to be needed to shake off the bearishness that is still out there.
We already had one week of a rally, and this week up could be enough to satisfy a larger wave 2 up in that week chart, but it could drag out for a third or fourth week. I don’t think it will, but I do think that the 112.41 spy print will be hit before another serious move down will start.
If that target is hit this week, then I can see another larger move down starting the following week. So, while I do believe we will close this week out positive, it might only get to either the 1085 Fib. Level, or the 1100 Level by this coming Friday. That would mean that the following week would be needed to hit the 112.41 spy target (about 1120 spx).
On a shorter time frame, I think we could go down on Monday and early Tuesday, and then up into Friday. The 1060 area would be a very shallow pullback, but with no selling pressure yet, that could be all we get? The 1040 level is more likely, and should be the pullback low. Then up to start the “C” wave up in an ABC move from the 1010 low.
For the bears, I’d wait until that daily chart finishes putting in a lower tower high on the histogram bars before shorting. It wouldn’t surprise me if we only went down to 1060, before ramping up higher into Friday. There were probably some bears that went short on Friday, because we hit the 50% Fib. Level… which also makes me think they might push up with that last gasp (on the 15 and 60 minute charts) to 1085 Monday morning,and then roll over.
If so, then 1060 area is more likely the downside target, and then a move up into Friday. If it rolls over at the open or even gaps down, then I believe 1040 is more likely the downside move for the “B” wave. Personally, I’ll feel much better on the short side once that 112.41 print is hit. For now, the bulls have control. The only thing next week that can move the market, is earnings… and you know how easy that is too make up.
It’s not going to last for long though folks. All this bullishness will be over soon, and the bears will rejoice again. But for next week, the bears should take a vacation… as any move down is best left for day traders, not swing traders.
Good luck to all you bulls and bears out there…
Red
Last Call For The Bears…
Jul 8th
Is it time for the Bears to go back into hibernation?
Yesterday I called for the 1070.50 spx print to be hit, and it did exactly that today. But, will my call for a sell off tomorrow be right? I doubt it, as my luck isn’t that good. I may get a few calls right from time to time, but tomorrow looks quite bullish right now, so calling for a big sell off is probably just wishful dreaming on my part.
The daily chart is pushing the market up hard, from oversold territory. It’s about to cross over the zero level on the histogram bars… quite bullish. It could easily last until opx next Friday… or longer? And, it could just as easily roll back down tomorrow too.
There is no way of knowing how high it will go, with regard to putting in higher histogram bars… which should make a higher price on the overall market too.
The 60 minute chart is overbought, as the daily keeps pushing it back up every time it tries to roll over. The 15 minute chart has already dipped below into oversold territory and is now coming back up now. That’s what caused the run up into the close, as the 15 finally curled up and crossed back above the zero level into positive territory again.
Overall, tomorrow looks very bullish with the daily and 15 minute chart ready to push the market up to the next level. The 60 is overbought though, which could limit the upside, and in fact it could make the day just trade sideways as the charts aren’t all lined up together pointing in the same direction.
Honestly, I don’t see much hope for the bears right now. The light volume will keep the market from selling off hard. I think a big news event is needed to bring the market down now. What could that be? I don’t know? Maybe nothing, as they may want to take it up to 112.41 next week first, before they sell it off.
To sum it up, a slight down or flat day is bullish as that would just be a pullback in a move up higher next week. A gap up and crap could be very bearish though, as that might indicate that the sell off has started. The last hope for the bears tomorrow is a hard sell off… one that would make the bulls bail out, that just went long. But, I just don’t see it in the charts. Sorry about that (I really am, as I’m short the market… so I’m a bear right now).
So the bulls have the ball for now, with 4 downs to go… at the bears’ goal line. The only hope for the bears is a fumble. (Let it rain, snow, and hail down tomorrow on the field… go bears)
Red
Going Down?
Jul 7th
After such a huge rally, who’s left bearish?
Well that would be me of course. Today closed at 106.30 spy, and filled the fake print I posted with 10 cents to spare… What will tomorrow bring? I see two options here: One, a run up to 1070.50 spx, to fill that fake print… or Two, we just open flat or down, and start selling off.
If we pop to 1070 first, then the day should likely back off down to the closing price of today… about 1060 spx. That would give us a doji for the day, and allow Friday to be a big down day… that could wipe out all of today’s gains?
OK, here’s a third option… we can all take the Blue Pill, and rally on up taking out the Aprils highs and going to the DIA 118.16 print over the next few months. Yes, it’s possibly… but not likely. Every time Cobra posts a chart showing the liquidity, it’s being sucked out faster then the money in your wallet is (by the government of course).
I find option One or Two the most likely, and give very little odds to option Three. So, should it go up to 1070, that would be a ideal shorting spot, before a huge sell off over the next coming few days. I expect next week too be really ugly, as I believe we are now in a wave 3 down on the weekly chart.
While everyone is expecting a rally up to where ever, to make a larger wave 2 up, with the move from 1220 to 1010 being wave 1, I think 1070 is as far as she going. This ship just popped the nose up into air, before a plunge to the bottom happens.
So, for you bears, the best you can hope for is a move to the 1070 level to fill that gap. For you bulls, you want a small down day to consolidate before another move higher. I also have a print of 112.41 spy, which could be the wave 2 target high… after wave 1 down is complete.
If wave 1 down is complete at 1010, then the larger wave 2 up should go to that 112.41 print before starting larger wave 3 down… which should take us to the Wilshire print level of about 725-730 spx. But that’s awhile off yet, so let’s just focus on this week for now.
My forecast is simple: Thursday should go up to 1070 and then reverse back down to close slightly negative or a doji, or it should simply sell off from the open and close lower for the day. Friday should be a large down day, closing this week out negative.
Red
Indecision?
Jul 6th
that’s what we got today…
As for tomorrow, I don’t know where we are going? That’s why they call that the “indecision candle”, or doji. It looks very bearish how it went up to the 1040 level that I expect on Friday (a day early I was), but we should rally at some point soon.
We are very oversold now, and appear to be basing, or consolidating in this lower range. That could be viewed as bullish, or it could be viewed as a bear flag forming… which is bearish.
The 15 minute chart look ready to rally up tomorrow, and the MACD’s are recycling back up from oversold, and the histogram bars look ready to cross the zero line as well. We are also forming a support trendline from the 1010 low, and the higher low at 1015, and now 1018 today.
The 60 minute chart looks ready to go back up and make a second histogram tower above the zero line. If it’s a lower tower, then it would be putting in a negative divergence. The bulls need it to be a higher tower then the top of today’s tower when the market hit 1040.
The daily chart put in a higher low on the histogram bar today. That shows that an uptrend is about to start soon. The only bad thing about that, is that the MACD’s aren’t rolling back up yet. And, ADX line is still rising. The negative DI line did roll over today, and is now pointing down, and the positive DI line curled up today, so that’s bullish.
The RSI turned back up too, and didn’t penetrate the 30 level (if it did, that’s really bearish). But, the charts seem mixed overall. I can see bullish points of view and bearish, so I just don’t know what to think about tomorrow?
The weekly chart is still very bearish, and isn’t showing any signs of going up yet. That means we should expect another down week, although that just doesn’t seem likely too me. Just because I see how oversold it is, and should rally. I’m still expecting a move to 1070 soon… but when does it start?
The news out this week isn’t really much of anything important, so with this light volume, you would think that we are going to start a rally this week. That’s why I don’t think this week will be down, even though the charts tell me it will. I’m obviously just going on my gut feeling that we are going to start that rally tomorrow, and not continue to sell off.
So, I wait for the rally, like all the other bears do. The bulls are long, and the bears are waiting to get short at a higher level. Will it happen? Who knows? Not me, that’s for sure.
Good luck to everyone…
Red
Update: In the afterhours session, I just caught this print of 106.20 spy. It’s likely to be our high tomorrow, should we rally.
Weekend Update…
Jul 4th
I can’t find anything bullish?
I wasn’t sure what to say this weekend, so I’ll keep it short and simple. I looked hard for a reason to see a gap up on Tuesday, but I can’t find one? Yes we are overdue… yes we need one… but I just can’t see it in the charts yet? Last Thursday I did a video explaining that I expected a move to 1040 on Friday… but it didn’t happen?
Friday had everything going for it. It had light volume, a holiday weekend in front of it, and traders leaving early… but it failed to rally? In fact, the brief rally into the close was sold off in one 10 minute bearish engulfing candle. Not good for the bulls at all.
While I still think we will see that 1070.50 spx fake print soon, it might not happen until we put in a lower low first. While we did that last week, it didn’t come with any panic selling, and that’s what concerns me. We need a capitulation day to wipe-out all the bulls, and get every bear back in… short again.
Most bears probably closed up their positions on Friday, expecting a rally next week. After all, who would be brave enough to hold shorts over a 3 day weekend, after selling off for 2 weeks straight now? I’d say those bears are in cash, and I’d guess that there were some bulls that went long into the weekend… but not many.
I think it’s going to catch a lot of people off guard if it goes down instead of up on Tuesday. Anyway, I’ll keep this short, like I said. But one other thing… you should watch this video below about the BP disaster, it confirms what I thought all along… it was another false flag event.
Red
Happy 4th of July everyone!
Update: This is a very interesting video by Karl Denninger, showing how the market in currently (as in July 4th, 2010) being manipulated up and down with fake bids and sells. Watch it… it’s worth your time.
