Weekend Update…
Jul 17th
MONDAY UPDATE:
Not much changed today, as we had a slightly positive day as I expected. The high was around 1075, which isn’t quite as high as I’d like to have seen. I’d like to see a back test of the falling trendline (1080-1085) from the April high before another move down starts.
In this 60 minute chart you can see that the MACD is trying to curl back up, and the histogram bars have now moved up from oversold territory to the zero line. I’d like to see it go up and make a smaller histogram tower then the previous one, putting in a negative divergence on the chart.
That could push up the market to the 1080-1085 level that I’m looking for, before more selling happens. We might not get it if Goldman Sachs doesn’t do a good enough job of lying about their earnings? The high could already be in for the week? Hard too say… but the charts tell me we need to push up a little more tomorrow first.
We’ll see I guess…
Red
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The Sh*nola About To Hit The Fan!
Sorry for the bluntness… but sometimes you need too make a point stand out. Next week is looking like a slaughter house for the bulls, as a big move down is likely coming. While anything is possible, the odds of next week rallying hard like this past week… are slim and none.
Last week I really was expecting it to close out positive, as it appeared that they wanted to take the market up to the 112.41 spy FP from a week back or so. But, the large sell off on Friday changed everything. Had they really wanted to take the market up for awhile, they would have closed Friday flat to slightly down.
This now tells me that the big boys are short again, and plan on taking her down below the 1010 bottom. This next move down is likely to be some kind of wave 3 of 3 of 3… in Elliottwave terms. Again, I’m no expert in EW, but anyone can count it after the fact… and that’s exactly what I see coming next week.
Monday has a 66% chance of being an UP day, according to Cobra’s statistics (see his blog for more detail. It’s listed in my blogroll). Plus, the 60 and 15 minute charts are pretty oversold now, and need to reset themselves. This will likely take all day Monday and possibly early Tuesday too?
Since the first major earnings announcement (from any company that can move the market) is from Goldman Sachs at 8:30am on Tuesday and then Apple after the market closes, you shouldn’t expect an major selling on Monday. If Goldman reports like CitiGroup and Bank of America did on Friday… it’s going to get ugly!
Then you have Baidu on Wednesday after the bell, and Amazon and Microsoft on Thursday… also after the bell. These are the major movers for next week.
Of course I don’t know what they will say, but Apple has reception problems on the antenna of their new iPhone… which tells me they aren’t going to rally the market. Goldman is likely to report similar to the other banks… meaning they meet estimates, but have a negative future outlook. I don’t know about Baidu or Microsoft, but the charts of both companies look exactly like the rest of the market… ready to roll over and tank!
At this point, I really can’t see anything but a huge sell off coming. I’m trying too be neutral here, and look for both bullish and bearish points of views, but this looks very bearish too me next week. I was bullish all this past week, and did fairly well on my calls. I was wrong on Friday closing between 108 and 109 spy, but I did call for the day to be a down day.
No one can get them all right, and I’m not one to overlook my bad calls… believe me, I’ve made many. I’m getting a lot better at reading the charts, and they tell me that disaster is coming! Throw in a 106.66 closing price on the SPY and a 109.99 high and you’ll have a devil of a time convincing me that we are going back up next week.
Good luck to those brave bulls that went long over the weekend. You have a 66% chance of an UP day Monday, but I wouldn’t push my luck after that… as there’s nothing bullish in the charts for next week.
(Major FP in 2nd Video)
Red
P.S. This oil disaster isn’t getting better…
Watch this video too…
Bears Get Tricked Again…
Jul 15th
Man! I almost had that fish…
PLEASE DON’T FORGET TO VOTE ON THE NEW POLL DOWN THE PAGE IF YOU HAVEN’T ALREADY…
Down we go in the morning to fill the gap, then rally back to close positive. The bears that went short at the low today just got squeezed hard as the market rallied back into to close. While we came just a hair shy of the FP of 110.67 spy, I believe we will hit it tomorrow… probably on a gap open. Then possibly sell off a little the rest of the day, closing tomorrow slightly negative.
I think tomorrow will close below 110 spy, and above 109 spy (probably closer to 109). Basically, I’m looking for a “gap up and crap” day tomorrow. They need out of this falling channel, and Friday is the perfect day to gap up above the channel resistance trendline.
Once outside of it, they can fall back down and retest the trendline (at a lower point as the day goes on), which will allow them to close below 110 and still stay outside the channel. That will allow for next Monday or Tuesday to go up too.
While I think next week could end up DOWN, I do expect them to at least rally up a little further before this rally takes a nice correction. The move down today could have been the “B” wave down, in an ABC move up? That means we should go up to the 112.41 FP next week to complete the “C” wave.
I’m just guessing at the Elliottwave counts, because I don’t really know it too well… but it seems logical. I know the “C” wave is supposed too be longer then the “A” wave, and a move to 112.41 wouldn’t be very much further. Meaning, if it quit there, and turned back down for a nice down leg, that “C” wave wouldn’t be as long as the “A” wave, but again… I’m not an expert in EW stuff.
But back tomorrow, I’m expecting a slightly down day, around the 109 spy for the close.
Red
No Recession Anymore…
Jul 13th
Update for exciting Thursday…
Red
P.S. Please answer NEW POLL… Thanks
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The correction is over now…
Yeah right… and I’ve got some ocean front property for sale in Kansas too! Once again, the run up into opx week has started off with a bang. Will it continue until Friday? Probably not much high, but not much lower either I’m afraid. This light volume period that we are in now, will allow them to easily gap up over resistance levels by running it up in the pre-market session first just like they did today.
So while there still might be a pullback, I think the 1040 level is off the table now. Maybe we dip to 1060 for the “B” wave down, but it may not happen until after opx is over. We could chop sideway until then, and sell off a little bit this week and a little bit more early next week.
However, the big concern is whether or not that week chart continues to roll back up, putting in higher lows on the histogram bars. That could mean that we aren’t going to go down below the 1010 low for awhile.
If so, then we could just sell off next week, and rally the next few weeks after that (and maybe go for the DIA 118.16 print?). Now I don’t know if that’s going to happen or not, but the weekly is looking like it wants to roll back up. So, just keep your eye on that chart, for it would likely put a limit on the downside for now… at least until it turns back down again.
Moving on to tomorrow…
The daily chart is still moving up, but the ADX line is falling now. It’s losing strength… finally! The negative and positive DI line are converging together now, which means it should be choppy in the market for the next few days. No major moves up or down should be expected during this criss-cross period.
The 60 minute chart is losing steam too, after putting in a much smaller histogram tower then the previous one. With the larger amount of open interest on the 107 spy put (289,000), I’d say that we will not go below 107 before this Friday. And, since the call side has 110,000 contracts at the 110 level, I’d also say we close below that level on Friday too.
Split the difference and you are looking at 108-109 spy level on Friday. Which really makes more sense if they plan on dropping back a little early next week to maybe 1060 spx… (1040 would be a gift to the bears, and could halt the up move?), before a move up to 112.41 next week. I’m not ruling out the possibility that we hit 112.41 spy by this Friday, but the odds are decreasing because the daily chart is losing steam.
So, my best guess for tomorrow is a slightly down day (not likely lower then 1080 area) or flat. But I don’t expect too much more on the upside without a “pause” day or slight pullback at this point.
Good Luck to everyone…
Red
Weekend Update…
Jul 11th
Monday Update for Tuesday…
Red
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Bullish OPX Week?
Most option expiration weeks are bullish, and I expect this one too be so as well (barring another false flag event, or planned default of some country of course). We are in the light volume season of the summer months now, and the market can easily be control now with a lot less money… aka Free Printed Money given to the PPT.
So, the question is… which way do they want to take the market? I think they want to take it up for awhile, as the media is still very bearish (at it seems that way to me). I’m looking for a small pullback early in the week (Monday and possibly Tuesday too), and then a move higher or sideways the rest of the week.
The daily chart supports a move up this week, but how far is anyone’s guess? Many say it will go to the next Fib. Level of 1085 or so, and others say about 1100. I think we will go to 112.41, either by the end of this week or the next. I think we are in a larger wave 2 up on the weekly chart now, and that would support a higher move up then just the Fib. Levels.
However, it could take 2-4 weeks to get up there… should it not put in a lower low on the histogram bar for the weekly chart to discredit this analysis. The monthly is still bearish, which certainly confirms that we are moving down overall. But, we should have rallies back up within the shorter time frames of course.
I’m not too good a counting elliottwaves, but if the weekly chart did complete a 5 wave down pattern, to form a larger wave 1 down, then we could be in larger wave 2 up now. If so, then several weeks of grinding higher is going to be needed to shake off the bearishness that is still out there.
We already had one week of a rally, and this week up could be enough to satisfy a larger wave 2 up in that week chart, but it could drag out for a third or fourth week. I don’t think it will, but I do think that the 112.41 spy print will be hit before another serious move down will start.
If that target is hit this week, then I can see another larger move down starting the following week. So, while I do believe we will close this week out positive, it might only get to either the 1085 Fib. Level, or the 1100 Level by this coming Friday. That would mean that the following week would be needed to hit the 112.41 spy target (about 1120 spx).
On a shorter time frame, I think we could go down on Monday and early Tuesday, and then up into Friday. The 1060 area would be a very shallow pullback, but with no selling pressure yet, that could be all we get? The 1040 level is more likely, and should be the pullback low. Then up to start the “C” wave up in an ABC move from the 1010 low.
For the bears, I’d wait until that daily chart finishes putting in a lower tower high on the histogram bars before shorting. It wouldn’t surprise me if we only went down to 1060, before ramping up higher into Friday. There were probably some bears that went short on Friday, because we hit the 50% Fib. Level… which also makes me think they might push up with that last gasp (on the 15 and 60 minute charts) to 1085 Monday morning,and then roll over.
If so, then 1060 area is more likely the downside target, and then a move up into Friday. If it rolls over at the open or even gaps down, then I believe 1040 is more likely the downside move for the “B” wave. Personally, I’ll feel much better on the short side once that 112.41 print is hit. For now, the bulls have control. The only thing next week that can move the market, is earnings… and you know how easy that is too make up.
It’s not going to last for long though folks. All this bullishness will be over soon, and the bears will rejoice again. But for next week, the bears should take a vacation… as any move down is best left for day traders, not swing traders.
Good luck to all you bulls and bears out there…
Red
Last Call For The Bears…
Jul 8th
Is it time for the Bears to go back into hibernation?
Yesterday I called for the 1070.50 spx print to be hit, and it did exactly that today. But, will my call for a sell off tomorrow be right? I doubt it, as my luck isn’t that good. I may get a few calls right from time to time, but tomorrow looks quite bullish right now, so calling for a big sell off is probably just wishful dreaming on my part.
The daily chart is pushing the market up hard, from oversold territory. It’s about to cross over the zero level on the histogram bars… quite bullish. It could easily last until opx next Friday… or longer? And, it could just as easily roll back down tomorrow too.
There is no way of knowing how high it will go, with regard to putting in higher histogram bars… which should make a higher price on the overall market too.
The 60 minute chart is overbought, as the daily keeps pushing it back up every time it tries to roll over. The 15 minute chart has already dipped below into oversold territory and is now coming back up now. That’s what caused the run up into the close, as the 15 finally curled up and crossed back above the zero level into positive territory again.
Overall, tomorrow looks very bullish with the daily and 15 minute chart ready to push the market up to the next level. The 60 is overbought though, which could limit the upside, and in fact it could make the day just trade sideways as the charts aren’t all lined up together pointing in the same direction.
Honestly, I don’t see much hope for the bears right now. The light volume will keep the market from selling off hard. I think a big news event is needed to bring the market down now. What could that be? I don’t know? Maybe nothing, as they may want to take it up to 112.41 next week first, before they sell it off.
To sum it up, a slight down or flat day is bullish as that would just be a pullback in a move up higher next week. A gap up and crap could be very bearish though, as that might indicate that the sell off has started. The last hope for the bears tomorrow is a hard sell off… one that would make the bulls bail out, that just went long. But, I just don’t see it in the charts. Sorry about that (I really am, as I’m short the market… so I’m a bear right now).
So the bulls have the ball for now, with 4 downs to go… at the bears’ goal line. The only hope for the bears is a fumble. (Let it rain, snow, and hail down tomorrow on the field… go bears)
Red
