This Bear is just sleeping, but he might as well be dead, as the bulls are killing every last bear out there! Will this poor fellow be next?"

Are all the Bears dead now?  It seems so, as other blogs have given up on the market and are closing up.  Over on Cobra’s blog (who’s isn’t closing, by the way), a commenter mentioned that a blog called “Trading the Odds” is closing up.  He also stated that another blog had closed too, but I’m not sure which one it was?

Then there is my friend Anna, over at Hot Option Babe… who is also very worn out by all the nonsense in the market, and thinking of closing her blog too.  I hope not, and I really don’t think she will.  She just needs to take a break from all the bull shit and go relax on the beach or something.  (Sorry about the cussing, but sometimes you just need to tell it like it is!)

Mole, over at Evil Speculator shut his doors down for a day or so… about a week ago.  But, he’s back up now.  He never really left, just took some time off from posting, is more accurate.  Even Alexander Grant over at AMBG Trading has cut his posts down from almost daily, to once every week or so.  Why post when nothing changes? (Everyone mentioned here can be found in my blogroll… except “Trading the Odds”).

I wonder if it was the same during the 2007 summer rally?  Is that a sign that the “TOP” is in? (Short term TOP of course).  It’s called “Bear Blog Capitulation”!  Look at the the put to call ratio on the chart below.  That’s lower then the reading in the 2007 high!  Every bear that’s still alive is now bullish.  Too many people are on one side now.  This boat has got to sink soon!

It makes you wonder if the government has super computers scanning the Internet, reading the bearish blogs, and predicting sentiment from that data?  Probably…

But regardless of whether they do, or don’t, it doesn’t really matter, as all the bears are dead broke by now.  That’s quite obvious by the extremely light volume.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend, we are now at day 10 of a sideways movement.  But, we did breakout of that range between 1160-1180, so I guess the count isn’t valid anymore?

So, I guess we are going higher again tomorrow, as trying to predict the top is useless at this point.  It will go higher until the government’s target price and date is met.  When?  I still think it will be this week, but I don’t know Jack Shit it seems?  Do you know Jack Shit?  Let me introduce you… (you might have too hit the play button twice?)

Well, there’s your daily humor.  At least I have the good fortune of posting whatever I want, and not just charts like all the other blogs out there.  I’d post another chart if you really want me too… but basically, I’ll sum it up for you like this…

This is the market direction until the Obama Gangster Gang turns it around.

Red

Contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in February, a survey from the National Association of Realtors showed, a rise the group said may be attributed to home buyers taking advantage of a soon-to-expire tax credit.

The Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January.  (Full Story Here… don’t waste your time).

Blah, Blah, Blah… the housing market is improving… let’s dance!

The media can spin anything into a positive… can’t they?  Believe me, the market didn’t rally because of the housing data.  Just another bullish Monday… like the last Monday, and the last Monday, and the last Monday (sorry, the record has a scratch in it… let me move the needle)

The volume was only 97 million shares on the SPY today.  Looking back, it looks too be the lightest day in the last 2 years.  Of course with such light volume, I could’ve pushed the market up with my $6.66 (from selling my dog, kid’s and wife last week… to go short with).

Volume volume volume… without it, the money in your piggy bank is enough to rally the market higher.  They should have just closed the market today, if they weren’t going to do any trading in it.  Maybe tomorrow will be the start of the coming down move?  It’s just a guessing game at this point.

The market will fall when the government wants it to fall… no sooner, no later.  It’s really that simple.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend report, we do see that on just about every previous sideways trading range, the market popped higher just before the sell off began.

I thought that Thursday’s new high was enough of a pop higher before the selling, but now it seems like it still wants to go a little higher?  Was today’s new high enough?  Maybe?  I don’t know?  With the 1191-1193 spx level, and the Dow 11,000… just a hair above, it seems destine to go there.

Trying to think like they do is the hard part.  They are most likely trying to figure out what rest of the traders are thinking, so they can fool them and take their money.  So, what does the rest of us retail traders think?  I think most traders are now looking for the 200 ma above, as the next likely target.

And, since every trader has heard the old saying “Sell in May, and Go Away”… that leads me to believe that May will be an up month, which is the opposite of what most people are thinking now.  I also think that most blogs out there are now calling for more UP, mostly saying 1200 plus on the SPX.

Are they going to be right, or will the market fool them?  If they are going to be fooled again, I think it’s going to take another “big event” to get the selling started.  What will they stage this time?  When will it be?  Over the coming weekend, or sometime during the current week?  I do feel that they will surprise everyone, and a gap down on some opening day is highly likely.

So for now… we wait patiently for the big surprise to be announced.  Of course if you’re not already short, you probably won’t get a chance to get in.  You know how they pay that game by now.  I know I’ve said it before… but we are very very close now.

The Treasury notes rallied up to 4.0 % today… and that’s not something the market likes.  A reaction is coming soon.  Remember, looking back at the past 5 times this happened, 2 of the starting days were on a Wednesday, and 2 of the days were on a Friday… with only 1 on a Monday.

That leads me to think that Tuesday will be flat, and if the selling is to start this week… then Wednesday is more likely.   Let’s hope the Fed’s announce something unwelcome by the market tomorrow, as I’m really tired of this merry-go-around!

Red

All signs point to a correction to start next week… but will the government allow it?  Just looking at the chart below (found on Cobra’s blog), and counting the days that we have been in a sideways channel, you will notice that the number of days are about the same as all the previous sell offs.

This is not based on the usual Technical Analysis, as most of those charts have failed recently.  I’m simply looking at the odds of a breakout to the upside after trading sideways for so many days.  As you can clearly see, every time the market broke down, except for the November 9th to December 21st area.  But, that area clearly shows a lot of whipsaw action up and down as the bulls and bears fought it out.  These last 8 days don’t look anything like that, as the bulls clearly ruled.  The bears never even tried to have a sell off.  All the other periods look more similar to most recent range.  This leads me to believe another sell off is coming within a few more days.

I think the market will fall quickly to the moving averages around 1120, and then bounce back up.  If they fall again, the 200 dma should be around 1070 by then, and that would be my final target down, before another large rally taking us into the summer months.

Now, does that mean it will sell off on Monday?  Not necessarily… but it could?  I really doubt it though, as the jobs’ number’s were bad, but not bad enough to cause huge selling on Monday.  Remember, most Mondays’ are bullish, and without some global political event happening, I do expect another low volume day on Monday.

I think the event we are looking for is the Fed Meeting.  A surprise raise in the discount rates for the banks is what I expect to be blamed for the sell off.  Of course this could be the one exception, and we could have a break out to the upside.  The odds are that the next move will  down, and playing the odds is about all we can do in this crazy market.

I’m not going to go over all the other TA’s, as they haven’t be accurate lately.  We all know by now that the markets can stay in overbought or oversold conditions for a lot longer then what they appear too be by using the MACD’s,  Stochastic, and various other charts.

Instead, this weekend update is simply about the number of days the market has trading in a range before making a move out of the range.  I could see another couple days of sideways movement before any move down starts (at most).

Looking a little deeper into the past moves downs, we see…

1. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on January 19th, and then the sell off on Wednesday the 20th.
2. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on October 22nd, and then the sell off on Friday the 23rd.
3. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear intraday on September 23rd, and then a sell off the rest of the day (which was a Wednesday, with 1080.15 as the high).
4. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Friday, August 28th, and then the sell off on Monday the 31st.
5. A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Thursday, August 13th, and then the sell off on Friday the 14th.

Notice that every time we had a “rally up to squeeze out the last bear”… just before the down move started.  Did we have that “rally up” on Friday?  Possibly, as we did squeak out a new high… which was also done on just about all the previous times too.

Also, notice that most of the sell offs were started later in the week, with 2 on Wednesday and 2 on Friday… and only one on Monday.  So, it could start on Monday… but I expect it to happen later in the week with some news that the market doesn’t like.

What is the news?  Who knows?  I suspect the government will be at the root of the news though… not just bad earnings on a few companies.  So, I’m playing the odds, and that tells me that a sell off is the most likely path next week.

Best of luck to all of us… in this Casino we call the Stock Market!

Red

As you all know by now, the government likes to sell the dollar to pump up the market.  And it’s no mistake that the dollar has been pounded hard lately.  However, there is huge support coming in just a hair under todays’ close.  Look at that lower rising trend line (in blue) that starts from back in December of last year.

If it breaks, then the market is off to the moon, but if it holds… and bounces off of it, then the market will fall.  There is still a little bit of downside left, before it actually touches it… but not much.  I’d give it one to two more days at most.  That means that Monday could still be an up day, if the job’s numbers’ are viewed as positive tomorrow?

Of course I’d expect the numbers to already be “baked into the cake”… so to speak.  Meaning that regardless of what they actually are, the market has already picked the next move.  If todays’ new high wasn’t yet enough to squeeze out the last bear, then a quick pop on Monday could still happen… before the much anticipated sell off occurs.

Not that the sell off is guaranteed, but it’s the likely next move… before any summer rally to 1200 plus occurs.  So now we wait for the jobs numbers tomorrow, and then to see how the market views them next Monday.  Regardless of the number’s, the media will have 3 day’s to turn them into something positive.  I think the best we can hope for… is a flat close on Monday.  That would be a huge relief for the bears, as every Monday since I don’t know when… since I was born?  … has been bullish.

I’d had about enough of the Bullish BS… how about you?

Red