Posts tagged 60 minute chart
Sell Off, Or Gap Out…
May 26th
That’s the 2 choices I see for tomorrow…
Today played out as expected, from Tuesday’s post. The market ran up to 1090 spx, and hit a brick wall. It gaped up to get out the falling channel on the 15 minute, but couldn’t get out the falling channel on the 60 minute chart. In order for the bulls to get out of that channel, I believe they must gap up above 1080 or so.
The bears will want to hold them in the channel of course. If they are able to, it will likely put in a new low on the spx, and hopefully put in a double bottom, or lower low on the qqqq’s too. Based on the charts, the 60 is looking like it wants to push the market down in the morning, and the 15 is already oversold, and will likely turn back up when the 60 minute does.
The news out tomorrow on the job data could gap it up out of the channel, or cause it to sell off early on. Of course I’m short, and I’m wanting it to tank, but the market doesn’t always do what I want it too do. The morning session will tell us the direction, and the 8:30 am jobs numbers will be the blame either way the market goes.
Red
P.S. This is a link to someone who seems to be well connected on the world events. Some people think he is crazy, and I’m certainly not going to agree with everything he claims… but the part about the Federal Reserve gangsters blowing up the oil rig certain got my attention. (By the way, the good guys in all these posts are the “Black Dragon Society”, and the bad guys are the “Federal Reserve Board Nazi’s”).
So yes, some of those posts might be garbage, but if there is one thing I believe too be true, it’s that certain forces inside our government are real, and are truly evil. They are part of the “New World Order”, which includes about all the recent presidents of the past many decades.
However, I believe their rein of power will end soon. There are good guys fighting to protect us all too. I believe Ron Paul is one of those good guys, as he’s still fighting to get the Fed’s book’s audited. The collapse of the Fed is coming, and those gangsters will slowly be arrested one by one. We are all part of something wonderful that’s happening right now. Change is coming… and for the betterment of all the people of the world. I believe 2012 will bring on a positive change for all of humanity, and an end to the enslavement the Illuminati have keep us in for the last few centuries.
Ok, there’s my “darkside” post. Now call me crazy, if you want too. It doesn’t matter to me. I’m simply put out the news… it’s up too you to believe it, or not?
Bull Trap, Bear Squeeze…
May 25th
Hard reversal on oversold 15 minute chart…
On Monday, at the close, the 15 minute and 60 minute charts aligned up together pointing down. That caused the massive sell off into the close and afterhours session. Tuesday opened up with a gap down to 1040 spx, and struggle to get back higher early on.
But in the afternoon the 15 minute and 60 minute chart aligned up together once again… but this time pointing up. This caused the short squeeze into the close, and higher afterhours numbers. Many bulls went long here and will probably have a chance to get out in the morning tomorrow, as the 60 minute chart is still pointing up.
But, the 15 is now overbought and will roll back down when the 60 is peaked. I expect that to happen in the first few hours of the day. Once it rolls, the 15 minute chart will follow. Then once again all 5 time frames will be pointing down again. I expect the 1040 low to be taken out on this next move down.
Nothing has really changed to make me be bullish on the market. The Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts are still going down, and will push this market down hard when the 60 and 15 re-align back down. The market is still stuck in a downward sloping channel, and it will have to gap up out of it tomorrow to gain more traction to the upside.
If it’s able to gap out of the channel, it will find another wall of resistance from a different downward sloping trendline around 1100 spx, and that’s assuming it’s able to go through the horizontal resistance line at 1090 spx. Since the 60 minute chart is more powerful then the 15 minute, it’s possible that a run for 1090 could happen. But first it must gap out of the channel it’s currently in.
I just don’t see that happening tomorrow. I see a flat open, and some chopping sideways action until the 60 minute chart gets overbought. Then I see another move down coming. I now see the writing on the wall, and for those with a keen eye, they also shall see.
So, I wish all you bulls a bears the best success possible.
Red
P.S. Someone asked me if the fake prints work and how accurate they are. Monday night I caught one, but didn’t think it would play out today, as it was too high from the gap down that occurred. So I went short close to the open, instead of waiting, and getting a much better entry on the rally back up. That’s the emotional part that I’m still working on, as learning to trust what I see in the charts is the hardest part. It clearly showed me that it was oversold, and should rally up some… and of course the print told me the target, but I didn’t listen.
Still learning I am…
The Perfect Storm Is Just Ahead…
May 13th
No Post For Friday Gang, as I’m a Happy Bear Now, and looking forward for more fun next week. I’ll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night. Go Enjoy The Weekend
And Friday Could Be The Start Of It…
From a technical point of view, a lot of damage was done today for the bulls. That late day sell off broke the rising bearish wedge on the 15 minute chart, as well as forcing the 60 minute chart to rollover and start pointing down. On the daily chart, the necktie did hold the market back and reject it hard.
Then there is the dollar (UUP), that had a huge buy candle appear in the last 10 minutes of the day, forcing a big move up in the dollar. This tell me it was “insiders” that know something is ready to happen. It was between 3:40 pm and 3:50 pm, and had 1.5 million shares bought up. Compared to the entire day, which only had about 4 million shares traded… that candle is HUGE!
Remember last week when Sundancer mentioned that he got an email from a friend at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange, telling him that a big buyer came in and purchased a ton of VIX Calls. Then what happened next? Thursday crashed, and the VIX soared.
That large buy of the dollar, of 1.5 million shares, tells me that the dollar is getting ready to explode higher. That is very unusual volume for the dollar. Something is brewing, and it’s not going to be good for the market. Let’s think about this from “outside the box” for a moment.
What event could cause a big move up in the dollar? Or maybe I should ask the opposite… what event could cause the Euro to tank, which would cause the dollar to soar higher? Could the rumor that Germany is going abandon the Euro, and go back to their own currency be true?
The article is up on Zero Hedge, and the link was posted yesterday by StockTech (thanks for the link). According to the article, German chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to give a speech to the nation on Friday evening, where she could announce a currency change from the Euro back to the Mark.
I don’t know what is going to happen of course, but I find it odd that she is waiting until the market is closed, on a Friday evening. Believe me, if the news was something that would be bullish for the market, it would have been released during the market hours.
Everything is planned and timed to be released when it benefits them the most. The German crooks are no different then the American crooks. Remember, about 200 families control 70% of the worlds’ wealth, and they are all part of the “good ol’ boy club”… meaning that they get together and plan out future events that will benefit them the most.
The leaders of all the countries are just the puppets that are in the public eye. The real people who control each country is the multi-billionaires behind the scenes. These aren’t some conspiracy theories that I’m making up… these people really DO control the planet, and especially the market.
You know that too be true, if you have been reading my posts long enough too see all these fake prints play out. Maybe not every one of them, but you have to admit that it’s really strange how those intraday prints are hit within a day or two.
Of course, finding out what they plan too do next isn’t always that easy, but we are given many clues. Like the big dollar buy today in the last 10 minutes. And, the fact that Gold is going threw the roof. Let’s not forget that Oil is still getting hammered. These are all big clues, that tell me that we have another sell off coming before another rally into mid-summer can occur.
So, from what I can see… Friday, and next week is looking like some big selling is still coming. Could Friday be “Black Friday”? I don’t know, and I don’t want to call it that… as I might jinks it. So, I’ll just say that I expect a down day tomorrow… how far down, I won’t guess at.
Red
It’s Hard To Kill A Bull…
May 3rd
Well, it seems that small bounce up wasn’t good enough for the bulls, as they rallied back well above 50% of Friday’s sell off. Those bulls are pesky and irritating creatures… to say the least. But, I knew that it was possible that they’d rally it back up, as the charts were showing that the market was oversold on a short term basis.
However, today they ended overbought. So, I do believe we will sell off some tomorrow. I’m not looking for anything major, as I think everyone is waiting on the job’s reports on this Friday. That should be a big market mover. Of course between now and then, any news out of Greece or some other event, could spook the market first… and let the selling begin.
One thing of interest today, on both the 60 minute and the 15 minute charts, was how the market couldn’t get above this downward sloping trendline. It is clearly putting pressure on it, and if the market wants to go above it, then a gap open over top of the trendline, is going to be required.
It’s the same trendline shown in this chart below (found on Cobra’s blog). Problem is, there is also a lower trendline that is supporting the market, and preventing further selling. This is looking like a symmetrical triangle (credit goes to Cobra for spotting it, as I didn’t), which still has another day or 2 of room to trade in, before it reaches the apex, and must jump out.
All the other charts are still signaling that the market will pull back, but unless we get some bad news event to cause the selling, we are waiting for Friday to produce it… and that’s only if the jobs data is bad. You know how the government likes to erase some of the digits on the report. It’s just like giving the report card of the students grades, to the student first, and telling him to give it to his parents. Funny how easy it is to turn those “F’s” into “A’s”… So as much as I’d like to tell you that all the charts are pointing down, the chart above could go either way.
We are also now 3 weeks away from this months’ option expiration, and although the market sentiment is still extremely bullish, the amount of puts purchased versus calls, for the month of May, is way too heavy on the put side.
That doesn’t mean we can’t sell off this week, and rally back hard into opx, but the chance of the market crashing into opx is very slim. Those market makers are not going to pay out on all those puts. I’ve seen it too many times, how they sell tons of puts to the retail trader, and then rally the market, making them expire worthless.
Of course after opx is another story, but for now, the bears have really only got this week too get a sell off to happen. The week of opx, and most of the week prior to opx is already reserved for the bulls I’m afraid…
Red
Apple Fails To Rally The Market…
Apr 21st
After Apple blew out earnings estimates on Tuesday evening, you would have expect a big rally on Wednesday. But, it didn’t happen, as this time the Apple was rotten. Apple clearly is the leader in the Nasdaq, and carries more weight then all the other stocks in the tech sector. But even with it’s overnight jump of 15-20 points, the overall market didn’t rally up huge like you would have expected it too.
Most people would have expected a 100-150 point Dow move up, with Apples’ great news. Since Apple carries so much weight in the market, this is clearly not a good sign for the Bulls. Who is left to rally the market now, if Apple couldn’t do it?
I’m really seeing more and more signs that this market is going to fall very soon. I’m not going to stay that the “Top” is in, but the odds are much higher now. Light volume is about all that can save this market from falling. If they can keep the volume light tomorrow and Friday, then they could take out the current high with some fake jobs numbers. That is something that they can easily fake, as earnings on all the various companies is a little tougher to alter.
Looking at the 60 minute chart, it sure looks like it is ready to fall. But light volume rules as the PPT can easily push up the market when there aren’t any sellers to stop them. This Goldman Sachs issue is about the only thing I can think of that could cause some serious selling.
Many people and large institutions are currently trying to get out of Goldman, as they don’t want to take a chance on whatever outcome may happen from their fraud charges. This will put constant downward pressure on any rally attempts that Goldman has. However, I think someone is going to hit the panic button if the rest of the market starts selling off.
I don’t know if it will happen this week or not, but you can just feel the tension in the market, as the tape struggled up some, down some, up less, and down more… all day today. Just like animals can smell fear, I think the traders are now smelling fear. I don’t think it’s going to be too many more days before the panic starts.
They will wait for the jobs tomorrow, and Microsoft’s earnings after the bell Thursday. If that data does show some real improvement in the economy, I think the serious selling will start asap. We could have a Black Friday? I don’t know how good or bad earnings will be for Microsoft, but I can tell you that most people will say that “Vista Sucks”, and Windows 7 is just Vista part 2.
And since Apple is their biggest competitor, who just blew out earnings, what’s the odds Microsoft will blow them out bigger then Apple? Remember, Apple couldn’t rally the market today. How is Microsoft going to rally the market… without any new gadgets like the iPad? Is Windows 7 as big or bigger of a money maker then Apple’s iPad? I don’t think so.
That leaves it up to the Jobs numbers to be outstanding, causing another rally. Everywhere I read, more and more people are stating that they don’t believe the numbers to be accurate as the government lies so much now. Nobody believe anything they say or do now. So, if the numbers are too good… will the market believe it? NO, of course not. And if the numbers are bad? Just another reason to sell off and take some profits.
You put together the NO Win Situation with the release of the Jobs data tomorrow, along with the high odds that Microsoft fails to beat estimates enough to justify a continued rally, and throw in the Goldman Sachs issue… and I’d say the odds are very strong for a sell off to occur.
And since Technical Analysis doesn’t seem to work too accurately by itself anymore, I’m leaning more heavily toward the “overall” feel of the market, and what news events are coming out first… then see if it matches up with the TA’s. Right now, they do match up. The TA’s have been showing overbought now for quite awhile. We have just been waiting for the right news event to trigger it. Will it be the jobs data and Microsoft? I think it’s the bears best shot.
Red
