Ok gang, it looks like we came close enough to the 107.35 SPY FP from last week to fulfill it.  We hit 107.59 on the opening gap down and rallied hard from that level.  This tells me that the short term bottom is in, and . . . → Read More: Time For A Bear Nap…]]> But next week should make the Bears’ Day!

Ok gang, it looks like we came close enough to the 107.35 SPY FP from last week to fulfill it.  We hit 107.59 on the opening gap down and rallied hard from that level.  This tells me that the short term bottom is in, and we should rally tomorrow and early next week too.

However, this was simply a “tremor” warning us of the “earthquake” coming in the market very soon.  So far, it’s looking like mid to late next week could be the start of wave 3 down of wave 3 down… meaning I think we completed wave 1 down of wave 3 down today at the morning low.

(I’m having problems with the video showing up, with the embed code?  However it’s working by going to the YouTube page at… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_o-e2eMVE0)

So, next week should have us going up with a wave 2 inside wave 3 down.  While I don’t know when we are going to top out, or if we already have, I do know that the next big move down is going to have a lot more then just 1-2 days of selling.  It’s going to be a very steep decline down.

I believe that it’s going to start next week, but again… that weekly chart could easily push back up and delay the move down until the Legatus meeting.  In other words, I’m not sure yet if we are going down to Dow 8300 into the meeting, or if they trick us all and rally this thing up higher in front of the meeting?

I’ve seen them do it before, so don’t get yourself convinced that the move down is coming for sure next week.  It could be extended another week or two.  Let the charts tell you where we are going.  Right now, I think we are going up tomorrow or flat.

Then well see what next week brings us after tomorrow’s close.  Keep your eye’s open for FP’s as they’ve been very accurate here lately.  I’d like to know the upside target for next week, and they might just be nice and tell us.  If you catch, let know and I’ll posted it.

Red

But the selling isn’t done completely.  While I think we will close positive tomorrow, after a morning sell off, next week should start out down.  The charts tell me that these last 3 down days were likely the start of a wave 1 move, with . . . → Read More: Is It Over Yet?]]> Maybe for a day or two I believe…

But the selling isn’t done completely.  While I think we will close positive tomorrow, after a morning sell off, next week should start out down.  The charts tell me that these last 3 down days were likely the start of a wave 1 move, with the close of tomorrow being the start of a wave 2 back up.

However, I do think we could sell off in the morning first, and then rally the rest of the day… closing positive at the end. The downside target tomorrow isn’t known, but certainly the 1085-1090 area is the first area I’d expect hit.  If that breaks, then a move down to our 107.12 (Anna got 107.35) spy FP would be the next area of support.

If we do go down that far tomorrow morning, then you definitely should expect a move back up throughout the rest of the day to occur.  We have a 69% chance of closing green according to Cobra’s after the bell report.  That makes a lot of sense too me, as the 60 minute chart needs to work off the oversold conditions it now has.

So, where ever we open at tomorrow morning, any selling should be short lived as the 5 and 15 minute charts bottom out and move back up throughout the rest of the day.  Looking at the afterhours prints for clues, I see a 111.28 spy print showing up as a “high” now, but we haven’t been there.  Is that another FP, telling us the closing level tomorrow?  Could be?

That would certainly be a positive close, if we went back up there into the afternoon session tomorrow.  If that’s the case, then I can’t see the 107 area being hit tomorrow morning, but instead the first support area of 1085-1090 spx.  So, for you bears, look for the selling to stop after the first 1-2 hours in the day.

And, since tomorrow is Friday, it could stop within the first hour as the traders leave early for the weekend.  While it would be great to see the 107 area hit tomorrow morning, I’m giving it low odds right now.  Let’s see how fast it moves to the double bottom area first (from today’s low), then we can see if it going to break that support or bounce and move back higher the rest of the day.

A quick move down (with volume) would indicate it is likely to break support, but if it takes its’ sweet time, and doesn’t hit that area until the 10:30-11:00 am time frame, then it will likely hold, and a move back up would be expected.  Hope this makes sense to you guys…

Red

No reason to another long post, as nothing much changed today.  As I said in the video’s, we are either going up to 112.41 spy or down to 107.12 spy.  It looks like we are going up first.  Once 112.41 is hit, I expect it to pull back from there and head . . . → Read More: Weekend Update…]]> Monday Update…

No reason to another long post, as nothing much changed today.  As I said in the video’s, we are either going up to 112.41 spy or down to 107.12 spy.  It looks like we are going up first.  Once 112.41 is hit, I expect it to pull back from there and head down some into the rest of the week.

We could choppy around that area for awhile, as I’m not expect it to just fall off a cliff… back down to 107.12, as that might takes some time.  It might not happen at all, as I’m not exactly sure on the accuracy of that print?  But regardless of the downside target, the upside one should be hit very soon now… as we are within spitting distance of it.

Red

—————————————————————————————————————————–

The bulls are back in town!

Yes my dear reader, it looks like the low is in for awhile, as the bulls are back, and they mean business.  Last week I got trick by seeing what I wanted to see… the bearish side.  I was bearish again after the previous Fridays’ huge drop on opx week.  Then another small sell off on Wednesday of this week, as Bernanke spooked the market.

It was looking like the bulls were done as they hit the the top trendline of the falling channel since the April highs, and failed again at it.  But on Thursday, the PPT came to the rescue and rallied the market hard on horrible economy data and various earnings reports.

The 1060 level held strong as thousands more lose their jobs and can’t find work.  So instead of gapping down on Thursday morning, we gapped up and never looked back.  Go Bulls, you crack head sons of b’s….  Manipulation at it’s finest!  Clear and simple!  There was absolutely NO reason to go up, and a thousand reason to tank, but the operators do what they do best… steal the little guys money!

It’s funny how the previous week I was bullish, and then fell into my own trap on the big sell off days that happened.  It played out exactly as I stated it would during the previous weeks’ video’s.  But this week I was dead wrong on my bearish view.  I should have given that weekly chart more attention, as it was clearly telling me that the trend is UP now.

I ignored it this weekend, and only focused on the daily, 60 and 15 minute charts… which was a clear mistake, as the weekly keep supporting all those charts, by not allowing them to roll over as I thought they would.  So in the end, even though this Thursday was pure manipulation by the PPT, the weekly chart did support a move up for this week… just not a 300 point, shove it down your throat and make you choke on your shorts kind of move.

However, we must always remember that the market is designed to fool you and steal your money.  It’s just a big casino created by the crooks, to rob the little guy.  How else can they keep the world in slavery, but to lie, steal, cheat, arrest, murder, belittle, frame, assassinate, embarrass, etc… you get the picture.

But one day we’ll all be gone to that happy place in the sky they call heaven… where we can play funner games like sword fighting with Angels (and Demons too I guess?).  Ahhhh… what fun that will be.  Let’s just hope they have some other type of gambling there… maybe Bingo or something?  LOL

Moving on now…

Next week should be interesting as we still have the FP of 112.41 spy (about 1120 spx) which hasn’t been filled yet.  Then I seen one on Thursday of this week, showing 107.12 spy… meaning that we will probably go up to the 112.41 print first, and then back down to 107.12 to fill the gap made on Thursday morning of this week.

Will it play out like that?  Who knows, but it seems logical for that to happen.  That doesn’t mean we can’t go down to 107.12 first and then squeeze on up to 112.41 by the August opx… which is entirely possible.  We all know how they like to run the market high during opx week, so they don’t have too pay out on all the shorts in the market.

So, if we fall first, then the buy area should be that gap fill area of 107.12, and then the opx high should then be the 112.41 print.  The weekly chart is pushing up hard now, so we could be going up for several months now, as I stated in my video’s from the previous weeks (of course I ignored all that this week… duh).

If that’s the case, then the final high should be the DIA 118.16 print… which could be hit in late September, just after the crooks cash there bribery, robbery, payoff, etc… checks through the Vatican banks (the only banks in the world that don’t report anything to anyone).

This is during the September 9th-20th annual Pilgrimage of the Legatus Group.  During these events, the thugs that rule the world make decisions on where they plan to take the market next.  The last Pilgrimage was held earlier this year February the 4th-6th… which marked the bottom of a sell off.

What followed was a bear whipping that lasted 3 months.  They must have turned on the money tree after that meeting, at rallied like the sell off never happened.  Of course that event was planned many months in advance, and the bottom was told to everyone with the FP I got back in January, showing 1047 on the spx, when it really closed around 1140 something that day.

That was my first experience with a FP, and when it hit that 1044.50 intraday low on February the 5th, and had a massive reverse (that didn’t stop until the April high), I got burnt and lost a bunch of money on that move.  I learned then that the market was 100% controlled, and manipulated to take everyones’ money.

Now I pay very close attention to those FP’s, and important meetings by the crooks that run the world.  The Illuminati have a public face, and that’s when they get together in the Bilderberg group and have meetings.  Policy changes are done there, and decisions are made as to where to take the market next.

The private face of the Illuminati is through the Legatus group, where they poses a good church going people, all getting together to celebrate God… it’s all B.S.!  The group is nothing but a place for all the crooks to get together and funnel all the money tell stole through the Vatican, the most corrupt and evil organization on earth.

These are the people that are using “The Book of Dead” to bring forth demons from other dimensions and other times.  Most people (that study that stuff, I don’t… but keep my ears open a little), say that these demons are Reptilian Aliens that are in the lower levels of Vatican City.

Well, I don’t know about that… but I do know that when the Illuminati get together, either through their more pubic face in the Bilderberg Group, or their less know private face in the Legatus group… the market changes direction!  So, should we continue up until the fall event is over, you can look for a nice crash following it.

However, we have that Yahoo FP of Dow 8300 from a week or two ago (which could be but up to trick the masses, as I’ll gotten some feathers ruffled from postings all these FP’s lately… meaning that it’s Fake FP, put up to deceive us).

And currently, the charts don’t support a move down to that area now, as the weekly is pushing up the market pretty hard now.  But, should we take out the 1010 spx low next week, (not likely), or next month, then I’d say we will go to 8300.

The timing of these FP’s are always unknown.  We only know that once we are headed in that direction, and get close to that target, look for a reversal when it’s hit.  So, for next week I believe we will go down and hit the 107.12 print first and then rally back to 112.41 by August opx.

I’m just guessing of course, as forecasting this market is like trying to pick winning lottery tickets sometimes.  But, the weekly chart says we go up for the next few months.  However, the daily is overbought and should roll over next week… which is the reason I think we go down first and back up into opx week… which is traditionally bullish anyway.

Hope that helps give you a longer term view, as the short term is pretty clouded right now.  Some choppy waters lay ahead I believe.

Good luck to all you bears, and bulls too of course (as we all have to be fed straw from our masters from time to time.  After all, it’s better then starving like the bears do).

Red

Hmmm… If so, then they must all be bull jobs and not bear jobs as the market rallied hard today, although the crooked banks still can’t seem to make a profit… even with FREE Money!  Man, if they ever do make a profit, the market will . . . → Read More: Did The Bears Get Fired Today?]]> Didn’t Obama say we’re creating more jobs?

Hmmm… If so, then they must all be bull jobs and not bear jobs as the market rallied hard today, although the crooked banks still can’t seem to make a profit… even with FREE Money!  Man, if they ever do make a profit, the market will be at 12,000 Dow in no time!

LOL… I’m just venting as usual, and laughing at how controlled the market really is.  It has nothing to do with the real world,  but instead trades off the charts only… and only uses the news to have something to blame the rally or sell off on.  I said yesterday that we could rally back up to 1080-1085 area, and we did.

Are we done yet?  I’m not sure, as I don’t know if the print I got of 109.79 spy is real (or Memorex… LOL)?  If it’s a real Casper, then that should be our final high tomorrow before resuming the journey back down.  It’s best explained in video, as we have two possibilities now… one UP and one Down.

The upside targets are 109.79 spy, and 112.41 spy (which I believe the first one will be hit tomorrow, but the higher one might not be hit for awhile.  I’m still bearish right now, and only bullish for another day or so).  The downside target is Dow 8300… when?  If we start falling back down this week, then within 2-4 weeks would be I estimate.

Red

This movement reminds me of the countless grind higher, from the February low. Day by day, the market grind-ed higher, without hardly even a blip of a correction down. We live in a world that has clearly changed tremendously since . . . → Read More: Are The Bulls Running Out Of Stairs?]]> I don’t know yet, but there’s an angry bear wait for him below….

This movement reminds me of the countless grind higher, from the February low. Day by day, the market grind-ed higher, without hardly even a blip of a correction down. We live in a world that has clearly changed tremendously since the March 2009 low.

Computer bots (Skynet) now control the market, and they follow strict rules. Upward and downward sloping trendlines are the key to understanding how they move. Overhead horizontal trendlines are easily broken now, as the light volume allows the bot’s to continue pushing up through them, day after day, with NO selling sticking.

These upward and downward sloping trendlines form rising and falling wedges. In a normal market, these rising wedges would break out to the downside, and the falling wedges would breakout to the upside. They would do this at fairly predictable times.

However, with Skynet running the show, the rising wedges don’t break to the downside when they come to the apex of the wedge… they gap up, to make the wedge even steeper! The rising wedge that is currently in play now, since the 1040 low, should have broken down several times by now.

But each time the market falls back and touches the trendline, the bot’s kick in and push it up more.  All at the same time, the “insider’s” (aka… Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc…) are all sitting on their hands, and not selling anything, until a certain level is reached.

Sure, they are selling small amounts into each move higher, but they haven’t started to dump their core holdings yet, as that won’t happen until they get the OK from “The Powers That Be” (TPTB).  When is that?  I have no clue.  We should dump 40 points tomorrow, if there wasn’t any Skynet… but we might be lucky to get 10 points.

Unless of course… it’s time to press the panic button?  But the longer they wait, more angry the bears will be…

Red

P.S.  Don’t forget to take the time and cast your vote on the Polls I have listed on the blog.  Thanks…

A doji means indecision…

Basically, we are . . . → Read More: Nothing Has Changed…]]> No Post For Friday Again Gang.  I’ll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night, and I’ll do a video again as well.  Great Day to be a Bear, and I hope you Bulls survived it and got out OK. Go Enjoy The Weekend.

A doji means indecision…

Basically, we are waiting on the job’s report tomorrow. We could rally higher if they are really, really great numbers. However, I believe the numbers are already factored into the market. I think the resistance we hit above at the 200ma, will hold the market back, and another leg down will start.

But, I’ll present both sides here, as there are as many bulls reading this post as there are bears, but make no mistake about it… I’m still very bearish. On the 15 minute chart we can see that there seems to be no clear reading either way? The move up from 1069 to 1105, and then back to 1100 could be a large bull flag, while the move from 1105 down to about 1092, and back up to 1100 area, could be a small bear flag. It could go either way tomorrow?

The 60 minute chart looks like it’s running out of room in the downward sloping channel, but could go up a little bit more before rolling back down. The histogram bars are overbought now, but could still go higher. The STO’s have turned back up, but are already at a high level above 80, which means they don’t have much room left before they roll back down.

The fact that the volume was very low today, and they didn’t push the market higher then the 1106 area that Mr. TopStep mentioned, tells me that they don’t want to go higher. Believe me, if the big institutions wanted to take out last Thursdays’ high, when we were at 1105 today, they could have done it very easily. This was all retail buyers pushing the market up today. The big boys were just sitting on their hands waiting.

Intentionally holding this market under the high from last Thursday is a key sign that they don’t want to go higher yet. They tagged the 200ma on the DOW daily chart and backed off too. The 20ma is barreling down fast toward the 200ma, and will form a powerful necktie of resistance tomorrow, when I expect it to hit it.

On the bullish side, the daily chart is now above the zero line with the MACD lines now touching and ready to cross over and push the market higher. But, the larger weekly chart is forming a bear flag now, if the market closes out flat this week, then next week should produce a large drop on that time frame. Remember the weekly has now spent the last 2 weeks under the 40ma at 1107.05 spx, this week could be the 3rd time under it. It hasn’t been under the 40ma since the March 2009 lows. If the 20ma crosses over the 40ma… you can kiss the market goodbye, as the Bears will be eating steak for dinner.

Everyone and their brother seems to be waiting for 1120 spx from the falling channel or 1140-1150 for the right shoulder to form. Do you really think they will just let all the bulls cash in their longs at those levels, and allow the bears to get short? I don’t think so. If you listen to what Mr. TopStep said… he stated that the shorts have been basically squeezed out these last 9 days. Without shorts to keep the market up, and without the big institutions buying… who’s going to push it up through all the overhead resistance to make that right shoulder? The retail trader? Please…. you know better then that!

This market is heading down again… if not tomorrow, then next week will be another large down week. Rallying when you are above the 20ma and 40ma on the weekly chart is easy, as they provide the support needed to bounce off from, but rallying when you are under them is another story. This market isn’t done selling yet… I wouldn’t be buying into the bulls’ propaganda if I were any of you reading this.

There is more bad news hiding in the closet right now, it’s beating on the door to get out. Just when every bear has bailed out, and every bull is on the long train… the door will open, and train tracks will be gone as the next bridge is suddenly blown up… courtesy of Clint Eastwood and Sister Sara.

The bears are waiting patiently at the bottom of the bridge now, as the train is speeding up to its’ finally destination. Last stop for the bulls to get off was today, as tomorrow they might have too jump off the train before it reaches the bridge…

Good luck to both bulls and bears tomorrow…

Red

How many bears got wiped out today?

The market rallied up today on NO news at all.  However, all the technicals did point for a possible . . . → Read More: Bear Funeral…]]> No Post For Friday Gang.  I’ll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night, and I’ll do a video too.  Go Enjoy The Weekend.

How many bears got wiped out today?

The market rallied up today on NO news at all.  However, all the technicals did point for a possible breakout, but I sure didn’t think it would be so large.  That means tomorrow will most likely be just a pause day, with little movement in either direction.  I’d lean more toward a small pullback, as we hit the 200ma on the spx and dow.  The market rarely pushes through on the first hit of a major trendline.

I believe the target area that the market is trying to go to, is the 1120 spx, and even possibly the 1140 spx.  Will it get there?  It’s hard to say for sure.  There are lots of road blocks along the way, that could stop it dead in it’s tracks.  The 1120 area is the gap fill area from May the 20th, and the 1140 area is just under the left shoulder from early January of this year.

So for tomorrow… it’s anyone’s guess.  Since it’s a Friday, and we are going into a 3 day holiday weekend, I don’t expect much volume to be traded.  That will of course favor the upside.  But, that doesn’t mean the market will have enough energy to pierce through all the overhead resistance.  That’s why I’m just expecting a flat or “pause” day, with not too much action on the up or downside.

This move up today was probably a “C” wave, or a “3″?  I’m not a Elliottwave expert of course, but just about any trader would probably agree with me on this call.  So tomorrow is the day to lock in your positions for next week… depending on whether you are bullish, bearish, or just plan on sitting in cash to be safe.

Red

The market looked extremely weak all day today, as the 60 minute chart pushed hard to work off some oversold conditions.  Unfortunately, the 15 minute chart didn’t help much as it was already in overbought territory, which meant that the 60 was trying . . . → Read More: Struggling Bulls…]]> The Bulls fell hard at the end of the day…

The market looked extremely weak all day today, as the 60 minute chart pushed hard to work off some oversold conditions.  Unfortunately, the 15 minute chart didn’t help much as it was already in overbought territory, which meant that the 60 was trying to swim upstream against the monthly, weekly, and daily charts that were pushing it back down.

Tomorrow morning we have consumer confidence data and FHFA housing price index out at 10 am.  Not much else to move the market, as there isn’t any earnings announcement on any company that can move the market.  Too me, it’s a little frustrating as I could have gotten back in short at the high this morning, but I was expecting Tuesday to put in the high for the week.

It still might happen, but a gap up needs to occur in the morning.  The downward sloping trendline has held the market tight in a falling channel for several days now.  If the market can gap open tomorrow, and run higher, the next major trendline of resistance (from another falling channel) is around 1100 spx.  What a wonderful place to go short… if the market would be so kind.

We could continue falling, without stopping until we hit 988 spx area, which is the 20 MA on the Monthly chart.  I do believe that will stop the falling, but I won’t be going long there.  I will exit most of the shorts I will hopefully purchase tomorrow, but I’d rather stay in cash and not get killed by the falling VIX on the ride back up.

So for tomorrow, it’s pretty simple… a gap up should produce a nice run up to at most 1100 spx.  A flat or down open will keep the market inside the falling channel and the selling will continue.

Best of luck to everyone…

Red

P.S. As was surfing around a little bit, I went over to “Follow the Money” (link on Red Pill sites on my blogroll), and started watching a video about a earthquake watch until the 27th, and it started to bore me as it was getting too technical. But at the very end his stated the possible places for the earthquake… the lower tip of South America……………….. and Baja, CA!

You want an excuse to blame the coming crash on… how about an earthquake? God have mercy on those people if it does happen. I pray it doesn’t, but with or without the earthquake… the technicals say the market it about to puke!

It seems there’s never a dull moment in the markets, as you watched today’s tape destroy the bears’ dreams.  I’m glad I wasn’t around for the bear beaten’ today, but instead I had to actually go work.  Yes, I do . . . → Read More: Evicted Bears…]]> Are there any more bears left, or did they all get evicted today?

It seems there’s never a dull moment in the markets, as you watched today’s tape destroy the bears’ dreams.  I’m glad I wasn’t around for the bear beaten’ today, but instead I had to actually go work.  Yes, I do work… from time to time.  Today started off too be a great day… until my car broke down, an hour from home.

Arrrrggggh!  So, I waited an hour for a tow truck, and then another hour to get back home.  Not a good day for me.  When I finally get back to the computer, I see the market squeeze more bears out, and everyone freaking out (myself including… well, just a little bit).

But gang, we all knew that the market could go up to around 1180 spx (and still can), then backtest the broken support line… we just didn’t believe it could really do it!  That is what shocked all the bears, as the 1,000 point drop was so bearish for the market, that everyone was only looking for a small bounce back up, and then another crash.

I include myself in that category, as I really thought the market was done yesterday.  But, we should all know by now, that it’s extremely hard to kill a bull.  If you look at this move back up using Fibonacci percentages, then we are now at about the 61.8% level, with the possibility of the move continuing to the 78.6% level around 1180 spx.  So, in the grand scheme of things, this is a typical move back up.

Let’s also look at it from an Elliottwave point of view.  The first 2 day sell off, from the 1220 high, to the 1180 low… would be wave 1 down.  Then the next 2 days up were wave 2, and the move down to the 105.00 spy low… was wave 3 down.  Now we are on wave 4 up, with wave 5 down coming next.

Will it happen tomorrow?  I don’t know?  We could have another up day, to tag the 1180 broken support level first.  The sideways chop fest that we have had for the last 3 days could be a bull flag, (an ugly one… but possible?) which could give the market one more lunge higher tomorrow.

I’m still short… painfully short, but you must endure a lot of pain in the options world of trading.  Nothing is ever as easy as you plan it too be.  They are always out to surprise you, and take your money.

So, if Ms. Market is listening to me right now… I’m Super Duper Bullish right now!  Go Bulls!  ROFLMAO now!

Red

P.S. Hang in there bears… we ain’t dead yet!

That’s the story for the market today.  The gap down in the morning was more fear about the Greece issue, but the market shook it off and pushed on . . . → Read More: Rejected At The 50…]]> Slammed down in the morning, rallied back at noon, but rejected at the 50, and pushed back to even in the last quarter…

That’s the story for the market today.  The gap down in the morning was more fear about the Greece issue, but the market shook it off and pushed on up higher… only to hit overhead resistance at the 50 day moving average, and get sold back off into the close.

This is not a good sign for the bulls.  It shows me that they don’t have enough strength to rally higher yet.  Once again, they need to pull back and regroup before making another attempt to rally higher.  This overhead resistance at the 50 dma is soon to be double resistance, as the 20 dma moves down into it, forming a “necktie”.

A necktie is simply two points (trendlines converging, or moving averages) of resistance or support that meet together at a certain point in time.  They will provide great support, or huge resistance.  In this case, they are overhead now, and will serve as huge resistance.

Whenever the market can’t get through resistance or support, it either gaps over it, (by gapping up or down before the open), or it must pullback and rest before another attempt is made.  This leads me to believe that tomorrow,or the next day, the market will pullback and then make another attempt to go through it at a later date.

That doesn’t mean tomorrow will be the be sell off day, only that a sell off is coming very soon… if the market can’t break through the resistance overhead.  It might try to rally again tomorrow, and be rejected again.  Every time the market makes an attempt to pierce the overhead resistance, and fails… it gets weaker and weaker.

At some point, it will run out of energy and collapse back down.  Whether or not that’s tomorrow or not, is anyone’s guess?  I know it’s coming, and I expect it to arrive this week, but I can’t tell you exact date.  Since there isn’t any major news or earnings this week, it could be any day this week.

Since Thursday has been bearish lately, and Friday is the last day going into an “unknown weekend”, I’d give those two days the most likely days for a fall to happen.  Other then the charts telling me that we will sell off within a few days, there are other clues too.

Gold rallied hard today, even though the dollar stayed flat, and didn’t sell off, as the market rose.  Usually, the dollar is selling off, while the market, gold, and oil all go up.  Oil went down today, but the market rallied up.  What is that saying to you?

It says too me that the dollar won’t sell off hard because of the Greece fears… which is based on the Euro.  The Euro is still weak, and is likely to stay that way until the Greece fears go away.  That’s not likely to happen overnight, regardless of the market’s 400 point Dow rally on Monday.  That was just the reason behind it, but the market was very oversold, and was ready for a bounce any way.

As you can see by today’s action, the euphoria of the Trillion Dollar Bailout wore off quickly by the close today.  So, the dollar isn’t ready to sell off yet, and is staying strong.  OK, what about gold?  Why did it rally when the dollar didn’t sell off?  Simple… FEAR!  That’s why I don’t trade the GLD, as it’s supposed to trade opposite of the dollar, but it didn’t this time because people will run too gold whenever fear is in the marketplace, regardless of what the dollar does.

How about Oil?  Usually oil is rallying with the market, and while the dollar sells off.  But, the dollar was flat today, and didn’t sell off.  What happens to oil when the dollar takes another move higher?  If oil trades the opposite of the dollar, the it will fall hard if the dollar takes another leg up.

Putting all these pieces together, and you have lots of reasons for the market to fall down again hard.  I would love to see another touch of the 50 dma before the sell off, as that makes for a larger drop.  The market wants to hit the 50 dma at least a couple of times, before giving up and retreating lower.  If it falls tomorrow, it won’t go downs as far, as it will want one more attempt at touching the 50 dma line.

Think of it like a football player hitting a blocker that he can’t get through.  He will likely try several times to push past the blocker, before he falls back and thinks of another strategy.  The market is no different.  Many attempts will be made while “at the line of defense”, and finally a retreat back or a push through will occur.

If we start to fall tomorrow, I do expect the gap at 111 spy to be filled before another attempt at the 50 dma is made again.  It might happen in one day or several days?  Regardless, I do still see another leg down, to retest the 105.00 low at least.

After that, then I could see another rally to a possibly higher high in the market.  I don’t know if it will happen on June the 25th, as I forecasted in weekend video.  I’d be shocked if the forecast is accurate, but for now it’s still possible to follow that path of a new high by late June.

So, for tomorrow… I’m bearish, but not sure if the fall comes on Wednesday, or waits until Thursday and Friday?  Either day, I’m comfortable be short right now.

Red

P.S. I’ll be gone all day on Wednesday gang, and won’t be able to reply to any posts (no computer access).  So, I leave you in good hands with the lovely Monica, and wise Sundancer.  (Try not to kill all the bulls while I’m gone Monica).