Posts tagged forecast
Angry Bulls…
Jun 2nd
The bulls wiped out a lot of bears today…
The rally up today was one big short squeeze on no news. However when Obama leaked out that the Friday job’s report is really going to be good, the market rallied. Great timing Obama. I wonder if they have ever released good news when the market is topped? Or how about releasing bad news when the market has bottomed?
No, of course not… they play the game of tricking both bulls and bears, by carefully releasing news at pre-planned time points. Today they wanted to rally the market, and that’s exactly what they did. All the retail buyers went long today, and more will jump on board tomorrow too.
We could now go up to the downward sloping trendline at 1120 spx, into Friday’s wonderful jobs’ data. Wonder how good it’s going to be? I’m excited, as I need a job… especially since my current job is about gone now. I want too sign up to be a census worker too. I know they must be high paying jobs… after all, the last statistic I heard was that it cost $150,000 for every new job created. It’s got too pay well… right?
But who needs a job anyway? I’ll just go long when the wonderful jobs data is released, as I’m sure that will cause a huge rally up to new highs… right? Just paint “I’m a sucker” on my forehead, and I’ll even borrow money from my mortgage and credit cards to invest in this new bull market.
Ok, so enough ranting and raving…
Here’s the chart of the spx on the 60 minute time frame. As you can see, we are still heading up on the MACD’s and the histogram bars are rising into positive territory now. It could continue higher or roll back down. If it continues higher, then you can expect 1120 spx to be the first target, and then possibly 1140 spx. If it rolls back down, the market should fall hard and fast, into a wave 3 of 3.
So at this point, it’s up to them as to what they want to do? Do they want to rally for the rest of the week and into next week, and then take the market down. Or, do they want to take the market down starting tomorrow? Either way, the market is still in a confirmed downtrend, and will likely continue lower for at least this month, if not the next month or two?
Pretty simple then… a gap up and we go higher to 1120 – 1140, or a gap down and we start the next leg down in the bear market.
Red
Bear Funeral…
May 27th
No Post For Friday Gang. I’ll have the weekend post up by late Sunday Night, and I’ll do a video too. Go Enjoy The Weekend.
How many bears got wiped out today?
The market rallied up today on NO news at all. However, all the technicals did point for a possible breakout, but I sure didn’t think it would be so large. That means tomorrow will most likely be just a pause day, with little movement in either direction. I’d lean more toward a small pullback, as we hit the 200ma on the spx and dow. The market rarely pushes through on the first hit of a major trendline.
I believe the target area that the market is trying to go to, is the 1120 spx, and even possibly the 1140 spx. Will it get there? It’s hard to say for sure. There are lots of road blocks along the way, that could stop it dead in it’s tracks. The 1120 area is the gap fill area from May the 20th, and the 1140 area is just under the left shoulder from early January of this year.
So for tomorrow… it’s anyone’s guess. Since it’s a Friday, and we are going into a 3 day holiday weekend, I don’t expect much volume to be traded. That will of course favor the upside. But, that doesn’t mean the market will have enough energy to pierce through all the overhead resistance. That’s why I’m just expecting a flat or “pause” day, with not too much action on the up or downside.
This move up today was probably a “C” wave, or a “3″? I’m not a Elliottwave expert of course, but just about any trader would probably agree with me on this call. So tomorrow is the day to lock in your positions for next week… depending on whether you are bullish, bearish, or just plan on sitting in cash to be safe.
Red
Tomorrow Was Worst, But For Me…
May 21st
Damage was done today, but not to the market…
When I wrote yesterday that today would likely be the big down day, causing capitulation, I really believed it would happen. I let my emotions get the best of me on this one, and did a lot of damage by scaring my dear friend. For that, I am deeply sorry, as I only intended to help. I was wrong to push my opinion on someone else, even though I had the best intentions at heart. I guess the best way to help is to say nothing, and just keep your opinions too yourself.
I fear that I may have lost that friend, because of stupidity. I hope not, and I hope that in time she can forgive me for my actions. I’m not perfect by any means, and I’m certainly not that great at trading. I’m too emotional in my trades. I have learned a lot in the last year about trading, but controlling my emotions will be the hardest thing to master. In time, I’m sure I will, as I’m flexible and willing to adapt.
On top of hurting a dear friend, I have also lost a value member of this blog, as it seems that the site is getting too much traffic and drawing too much attention. I wish him well, and thank him for all he has taught me and everyone who listened. May he return someday, when the timing is near…
Since this is a Friday, and I rarely do posts on Fridays’ I don’t have any charts or forecasts to go over. I’ll save it all for the Weekend Update report. I will say that Monday should be an up day.
Good luck to all of you good people, and may the trolls crawl back into their hole.
Red
Weekend Update – Armageddon?
May 16th
Post Number 199… Yes,it really is my one hundredth, and ninety ninth post since starting this blog last year. (However, I think I’ll skip the 666 and 999 post… just too be safe – LOL)
I can’t find a single reason to be bullish next week, from any technical point of view. The only thing I can see positive… is that the typical option’s expiration week is usually bullish, but past history doesn’t always play out the same in the future. The charts are still very bearish right now, and I think that will overshadow the past history results for a bullish opx week.
With that being said, I don’t necessarily think that we will crash on Monday. We could rally up a little on Monday, and create a smaller wave 2 up, inside of a larger 3 wave down (some call it a 5th wave?). And then plunge down on Tuesday with a smaller wave 3 inside a larger wave 3, which is what I think will happen.
We are still pointing down on the daily chart, which will continue to put overhead pressure on the 60 minute and 15 minute charts. Looking at the chart below, you will notice that the MACD lines rolled back down, after briefly pointing up on Monday’s rally. The 10 EMA is still below the 50 EMA, and the 20 EMA isn’t too far away from crossing over it too. The histogram bars are still in negative territory too.
The RSI is still below the 50 level, which means that the bears are still in control. Plus, the ADX line is now rising again, with the negative DI line (in Red) hooking back up now. More downside is coming next week… how far is anyone’s guess?
Let’s look at the 60 minute chart now. It’s has both the 10 EMA and the 20 EMA now below the 50 EMA, which again puts the bears in control. The RSI is still well below 50, but did hook back up at the close Friday. This could give the market the smaller wave 2 up on Monday. However, I don’t think it will get back above the 50 level with the daily chart still pointing down.
Look at the MACD on the 60 minute chart too, as it’s still pointing down, and hasn’t hooked back up yet. It did put in a lower histogram bar during that last hour that the market rallied a little on. But again, with the daily chart putting downward pressure on it, I don’t think it will make it back up to the zero level on Monday. Maybe it will put in lower histogram bars, but fail to crossover into positive territory.
Now let’s look at the 15 minute chart and try to forecast what will happen on Monday. First off, the early sell off, and then sideways movement, forms a perfect “bear flag” pattern. Not that they all play out, but if this one does, then an early morning sell off (possible gap down open) could happen. Notice that the MACD has successfully rallied back up above the zero level, and into positive territory. There is no way of knowing how high it will form it’s histogram bars, before rolling back down, but if you match it up with the RSI above… I’d say it’s pretty close too topped.
Looking at the RSI, you will notice it rising back up toward the 50 level. If it can get above it, and push up toward 70, then the histogram bars on the MACD could continue to rise, and the market would too. The ADX line is rolling back down, and so is the negative DI line (in Red). The positive DI line (in Green) is rising, giving strength to the bulls. But remember, this is only the 15 minute chart, at it still has a ton of overhead pressure above, with the 60 minute chart, daily chart, and weekly chart pushing down on top of it.
I think the best scenario a bull could hope for on Monday, is that the 15 minute chart rises back up and forms a smaller wave 2 retracement rally… allowing them to get out of their positions, before it rolls over into smaller wave 3 inside larger wave 3 (or 5?).
Baring that there isn’t any negative news about another country (or state… aka California) going into default, then maybe there will be a smaller wave 2 up on Monday? However, it could have already completed itself on the late day rally (mainly short covering), which in that case… the bear flag pattern will play out, with a possible gap down on Monday.
After this correction is done, I think we will go back up for one final high. The monthly chart looks almost topped now. It should roll over in 1-2 months, and then P3 down would be started. But, for now, we are close to putting in a bottom for this current down turn. I would estimate that next week (or the following week, at the latest) will put in the bottom for this sell off, and the following week will start a big rally back up again.
So for Monday, it’s either going to be a gap down from some negative news, or we rally up a little bit while we continue to form that smaller wave 2 retracement. Either way, Tuesday and Wednesday will look horrible for the bulls, as a wave 3 of a wave 3 down will occur. It’s going to be Bloody…
Red
