ES Morning Update April 29th 2020


Today is Fed day, which in the past would have wild swings up and down right before the 2:30 pm EST meeting. Yesterday did end up being "Turn around Tuesday" and this morning it has turned around again. These up's and down's are clear signs to me of big change in direction coming soon, and this week is the most likely time period for that to happen.

I don't know what the Fed can say at this meeting that hasn't already been said and done, so I suspect that traders will not be impressed and any move higher will be short lived. But we all know how common it is for SkyNet to "run the stops" on bulls and bears both before the next big move starts. To me, that's exactly what they are doing this week. Most Fed days in the past closed green so odds suggest that will happen today as well.

But what I think is going to happen is that we'll close red tomorrow and back up to green on Friday, which could be some kind of wave A down and B back up before a bigger drop starts for the C wave. If instead we close red today and green tomorrow then Friday could start the next leg down in the market. Bottom line here is that odds suggest a drop is coming next week and that this week sets it up. Not much else to add here. Have a great day.