ES Morning Update May 20th 2020


Yesterday we pulled back some and I noted in the chatroom that I think it's a small wave 4 down of some degree with a small 5 up today expected. It's debatable on how many subwaves this 5th wave up from the 5/14 low will do, as while todays move up clearly shows 5 small waves inside it, that doesn't mean for certain that once this small 5 up ends the bigger 5 also completes. It it ends around the FP area on the SPY (around 3060 SPX) then yeah, there's pretty good odds that it ended.

What worries me though is Peter Eliades software calling for a double top, which would require this bigger wave 5 up to subdivide more for that to be hit. It would mean that when this small 5 up ends it just completed a medium 1 up inside a bigger 5 up. Then we'd have an ABC down for medium 2, followed by medium 3 up (5 small waves inside it), a medium 4 down (ABC) and finally a medium 5 up (again, 5 small waves inside it)... which would then end the bigger wave 5 up at the double top zone of 3400 to match Peters projection.

It's a very tricky spot here as while I do know that the FP's are targets to be hit I never know the "when" part, nor if they produce a big "turn" (like a drop to 2400 SPX) or just a small turn (like a medium wave 2 down... 2800-2900?). Tough call here. I'm still waiting to see if the FP on the SPY is hit in the next few days first. Then I'll decide on how much to short and try to guess the wave count. I only know that we have 5 (6) downside FP's that will be hit at some point in the future.

I'm still thinking that next week is when it all starts but again, I can't ignore Peters upside projections. So while it will still be a good short at the end of the small 5 wave up (hopefully at the FP on the SPY), as it will either end the bigger 5 up (which ends all 5 waves up from the March 23rd low) or it will end a medium wave 1 up from the 5/14 low of 2766 SPX and give us a nice ABC down for medium 2.

Both are good shorts to take in my opinion. For now though I'm just waiting and watching. With Memorial Day coming up this weekend I tend to think they will hold the market up the rest of this week. And if they hit the 3060 SPX upside target on Friday I'll likely be a bear over the weekend. History tells me that many times in past "they" do big "turns" around holidays, so it's a perfect time to screw the sheep (again). I just hope it isn't with some False Flag that kills people. May God protect us all.

P.S.  This guys video is kinda odd as it supports what I covered on my Special Update that a surprise Flash Crash might be coming.

P.S.S.  Late in the day yesterday near the last hour or so I did notice a big sell order come in, which dropped the market from green to red pretty quickly.  Is that some insider trying to get out before the big drop?