ES Morning Update October 27th 2020


The market continues to drift lower it seems. Last night the futures acted like they found a bottom with a slightly higher low and tried to bounce from being down only 20 points or so but this morning I see that support failed and the market is now outside the falling channel.

Again, these moves are hard too figure out. Picking a bottom for them is always tricky, which is why I'm just waiting patiently for that last rally up into mid-late November. If I could catch the bottom of this medium wave 2 down I might try a small long for the medium wave 3 up, but this could be centered around some news event like the election? I just don't know for sure so I'll just continue to watch and wait for now. Any bottom should have the moving averages trying to turn back up or flat out at least, and they are currently still pointing down nicely.

Nothing more to add here as we continue to stair-step down in a medium wave 2, which should be close to a bottom soon. It's not written in stone or any rule but I'll add that it's common to see the end of a move near a breakout or breakdown of a channel. I drew in a green dashed rising channel on the chart to give you an example. You'll notice that from the 9/24 (around 3200) the market went up in a nice rising channel. Then it broke-out on 10/8 and topped on 10/12, so if history repeats this move down should bottom no later then tomorrow or Friday (possibly today as down moves usually are quicker when compared to up moves).

One last thing, keep your eyes on the DOW as the 27,000 level has been good support in the past and if we close above it today then that could end the move down. Have a blessed day.


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