ES Morning Update December 28th 2020


I hope everyone had a great Christmas holiday. This morning we see the futures up some, which I guess is from the stimulus bill being discussed again today. Many are counting on it I'm sure, and hoping that it will pass. Of course with the bill being stuffed full with other garbage that has nothing to do with helping the American people, and just laundering money back to the corrupt Democrats through phony programs I don't blame Trump for voting it.

Why on earth would you need 5000+ pages in this bill? It should only be about the stimulus for the people, which should be more then a few hundred pages at most I'd think. But they want to fund some of stupidest things I've ever hear of... which I'm positive is just to organizations that they control and can steal the money.

Anyway, I'll leave it at that as the more I talk about it the more angry I get. Back to the market. I'm still looking for an important top on one of the next turn dates, which are this Thursday the 31st or next January the 6th. I high needs to be put in on one of those dates for me to get super bearish again looking for a Flash Crash. I thought last week we'd see that final squeeze up to the 3780's area on the SPX but it never came. If it had then I think we would have seen a Black Monday today.

So this week is of course another shorten one with a full day this Thursday, New Years Eve (unlike Christmas Eve that closed early) and Friday closed all day. Technically we don't have to hit that 3780's zone but we do need to see another new all time high on one of the turn dates. If we get a low for example this Thursday instead then we should just turn back up into the 6th next month. I say that it's common to see any overnight low in the futures revisited at some point soon in the cash market.

That spike down to 3596 last Monday the 21st could be the target low this Thursday if they plan on making the higher high on the 6th versus the 31st. They certainly don't have to do that as after the final blow off top is hit the drop that will follow will take out that futures low and keep going so it's really not important right now. It would be more important to revisit that low if we were just coming off an important low like the March one for example. Like on that pullback on April 3rd if there would have been some overnight night low in the futures around that period it would have needed to been hit before starting the huge rally up afterwards.

Moving on... as everyone knows I'm sure there's a FP on the SPY at 378.46, which is right around my 3780 SPX area that I was looking for as a blown off top prior to the FP showing up. It's still on the table and likely to be hit, but I always like to keep my eyes open for a fake out move in the opposite direction first before last move up to the FP is started. This is again why I'm pointing out that there could another shake out move south this week and then the move up into the 6th of January.

This stimulus bill is hanging over the head of the market and can certainly cause a knee jerk reaction move whenever something negative is said. Nothing else to say here. This week is normally a bullish one so lets root for that blow off squeeze into this Thursday so the south bound train can get started next. Have a blessed day.

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