ES Morning Update April 30th 2021


A tricky move by SkyNet yesterday as the gap up hit my 10-20 points over an even number level, then sold off into midday, but then reversed all back up into the close. Looks like they want to go a little higher before any decent pullback or correction starts. I think it was just a stop run on the bears at the open, then bulls and then back to bears again. Sheesh... make up your mind please. LOL.

Today I'm unsure?  There was a 417.14 FP on the SPY appear after the close yesterday at 4:21 pm and at 6:53 am we hit 417.23... amazing!  Not sure if that's close enough or not but since the market is bouncing now it very well could be.

The odds favor another push higher to run a few more stops on the bears that stayed short into the close yesterday.  I'm sure there's some there, as we didn't take out the morning high on that late day rally.  But today is the end of the month of April and there could be some small selling by big funds for re-balancing.  It happens more around the end of a quarter, but sometimes at the end of the month too.  Not a guarantee of course, but something to keep in mind.

On a different note, I think some traders will think yesterdays early high, and drop, was some kind of A wave down, then B wave up afterwards... leaving the C down next. Problem is, the B wave bounces tend to go higher these days to hit the stops on the shorts before the C down starts.

Therefore I still think we could see 4220-4225 on the ES Futures, possibly in the first half of today (about 4225-4230 SPX) and then a drop into the close to probably start that C wave down.

Unfortunately this is now looking to me like we are going to put in a bottom into next Monday or Tuesday and kill my ideal turn window from putting in a major and final top to this bull run from the March 2020 lows.  So instead, I think we could see 3-4% down over the next 3-4 trading days. Yeah, that's not even a decent correction, let alone the crash I'm still waiting on. But that's all I see for now. It will be another opportunity to ride the bull into the May monthly options expiration as that's what I'll be looking to happen after the pullback.

This pullback should break the 4100 level and go into the low-mid 4000's I think but that's about all. If that holds, the the bulls will still be in control and I'll start looking for 4300-4400 into mid-late May. On my chart of the ES Futures the rising green trendline is pointing to about that 4050 area for next Monday or Tuesday. If we get the rally today that I think is possible I'll look for a small short into next Monday or Tuesday.

Keep in mind that a lot of traders are bearish for the month of May, so to fool the most the pullback should be quick, early and short lived.  Then you can squeeze them all back up again into the rest of the month.  I suspect this is what's going to happen.  Have a great day and wonderful weekend.

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