ES Morning Update August 12th 2021


Cliff Dive Near

Running on fumes now as the futures try to grind a little higher. All short term charts are either overbought or just on the border line of being overbought. They all have triple negative divergences on their RSI's from prior overbought levels. The momentum here is super weak, it's like the bulls are crawling on their bellies this morning. I'd be shocked if they make it to the 4460-4480 major resistance zone, and I'd be more shocked if we close green today.

This has all the makings of the final high before a correction starts. It could have started yesterday, and that still might be the case by the open this morning... meaning only the ES Futures has eked out a new all time high by a point, not the SPX as it's not open yet. And if we pullback before the open then yesterdays high in that cash index could be all she wrote and mark the top on it, with only the futures delaying things with this last gasp higher.

I can't see this going up anymore as all the charts are stretched out too far now, so a move down is coming... and I still think it will be a correction of 10% or more. These pullbacks of 2-3% have conditioned traders into expecting them, and they buy the lows. This time is going to be different. I'm a big bear now and will stay one for the coming few weeks until I see something change in the technicals, like oversold charts. Dinner for the bears is coming soon, and I've got my plate, knife and fork ready. Have a blessed day.

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