ES Morning Update August 20th 2021

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I got yesterday wrong as I thought we would go down more the first half of the day and then rally into today. But instead they just rallied right out of the gate at the open and held it up most all of the day. This morning they are rolling over in what appears to be the start of a wave 3 down with yesterdays rally a wave 2 up. If this wave count is correct we could see an all down day happen.

The bears just need to take out yesterdays premarket low and the momentum from hitting sell stops will do the rest. The charts are open to support such a drop as they all bounced back up enough from oversold to go back down again.

Of course the other side of that scenario is that they can also keep going up more to get fully overbought too. I talked about that previously as when the trend is down (which I think it is now) the RSI should be going back and forth from oversold to the neutral area and shouldn't reach fully overbought until it's time for a really big multiday rally... which I don't think we are there yet.

Today is critical for the bears as they have the bull by the horns here with this potential wave 3 setup. All they need to do is take out the low yesterday and the party will get started. We could see 100+ points down easily today if the bears can do that one task. The stars are all aligned for them is what I'm saying. Can they do it? We'll find out by the close I guess. Have a great weekend.

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