ES Morning Update August 25th 2021


Flat day yesterday and today looks to be starting off the same way. This the bulls resetting the 1hr and 2hr RSI's as they both now are working their way down toward oversold. Once that happens the bulls will likely make another push higher, which will turn them back up of course and then the 4hr RSI will join in as well.

Predicting the "when" part isn't easy but if I had to guess I'd say tomorrow we'll see that breakaway. It should be the upside based on these charts and the bull flag pattern, but if it fails the same strong move will happen on the downside. I think it will be another up move though as we all know the market is more rigged for the bulls and against the bears, so when bull flags appear and short term charts get oversold they usually pop the market higher next.

When bear flags appear with overbought charts they only work half the time I think. Not that I've tracked it, but I just know how hard it has been to get the market to give the bears anymore then a 3% pullback. Anyway, it is what it is, and can't be changed. We just have to go with what makes money the most and that's being a bull. The key today for the bulls is to not give up much ground on the downside to kill the bull flag pattern. Right now it's a perfect sideways one, but they could drift slow (not any spike down fast move) down today int the 4460's and still be fine with the pattern.

Basically a retest of the prior all time high and a little lower. That rising purple trendline around 4450 is the "line in the sand" I think as below that and the bull flag pattern is dead, and so would be the large breakout to the upside. We could see a drop down into the low 4300's if this support is lost, so keep that in mind. Personally I think we breakout to the upside after another sideways day as again, the rulers of the market favor the bulls. Have a great day.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.