ES Morning Update October 7th 2021


The "MA" pattern I spoke of yesterday has been killed with this move up this morning, which I must admit I'm a little surprised to see it bounce this high. Previously this week I was looking for this bounce but when that MA pattern appeared yesterday, and the FP on the SPY, I had second thoughts (as you can read in yesterdays post). But my thinking hasn't changed on another big drop coming, it's just delayed now due to this bounce.

I guess SkyNet needed to clear out the stops on the bears before the nasty C wave down starts. The RSI on the 4hr chart was still pointing up yesterday, and it still is this morning too. Predicting the point at which it will rollover isn't easy and I got this one wrong. So what next... right? We'll, everyone can see the falling light blue trendline I'm sure, which means SkyNet can too. And you have the double top resistance from the 9/27 high just under 4470... so that's two points of interest that traders will look at to short. Now, the question is... what is SkyNet goingto do with this common knowledge?

The common pattern in the past was to either bust through both resistance areas to run the stops on the bears and lure in bulls to go long, or stop shy of the lowest resistance level. Either one could happen here and I don't know which one? That falling light blue trendline is around 4425 this morning and of course the 9/27 high is around 4470. On a wave count analysis I can clearly see 5 tiny waves up from the low yesterday morning around 4273, which means we are in the 5th wave up right now.

From that point of view some kind of pullback is likely today no matter what the plan next is... meaning that if this ends the move up and we start the large C wave down next, or if this subdivides into more waves. For example we could do 5 tiny waves up (a small wave 1?)), the 3 tiny waves down (an ABc small wave 2?), another 5 tiny waves up (a small wave 3?), which then could stop there with just a 3 "small wave" advance or continue with a small wave 4 down and small wave 5 up to finish that pattern.

Too me a 5 wave series of small waves would likely get us up to a new all time high, but a 3 wave series would probably stop around the 4500 area. But I'm leaning to just this a 1 wave series up (5 tiny waves) as I don't see this as anything more then a bounce before the large C down starts. I think the large A down is still the drop from the all time high to the low on 9/20 (4293), then the large B up into the 9/27 high, and we are in the large C down right now.

The medium wave 1 was from 9/27 to 10/1, and we are in a very choppy medium wave 2 up right now. When it ends the medium 3 down starts, inside large wave C down. I still see next week as a blood bath. This subdividing medium wave 2 up is just luring in bulls and shaking out bears in my opinion. Wave 2's and 4's are commonly very tricky and this one is no different. I really can't go with another wave count as nothing in the technicals suggest the low is in and we are off to a new high now.

This weekly chart here shows a very clear "still very bearish" picture to me. I can't get bullish until the RSI is deeper and I see the Stochastic's down into oversold as well as the MACD's closer to the center line where turns commonly happen. In conclusion, I'm very bearish here and think this is the ideal spot to short at. Whether it gets to 4425 or 4470 is unknown, but personally I would count on it. Have a blessed day.