ES Morning Update October 28th 2021

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The market finally started to pullback some yesterday near the close. It should be the start of the wave 4 down, which is a medium wave inside a large wave 1 up, inside Extra Large Wave 5 up. It would be unusual for this ELW5 up to end with just one 5 wave series, so I'm going to assume it will subdivide into 5 waves up (for large wave 1), 3 waves down (for large wave 2), 5 waves up again (for large wave 3... which I think start in early December), another 3 waves down (probably mid-late January) and final the last 5 wave series up into February of 2022.

That's where I think we top out at for the entire 5 Wave (Extra Large) series ends. For the short term though if we topped at 4590 for the medium wave 3 up two days ago then we'll likely only have a shallow drop for this medium wave 4, and that should end quickly... like possibly today?

I say that because everyone that missed this big rally will buy the dip, which will keep from pulling back very far.  The medium wave 2 down was different as we had just come up from the low and everyone was shorting it.  So it went deeper... probably 61.8% or so?  Then once the market broke-through that falling dashed orange trendline the medium wave 3 up kept going and going and going.

Bears shorted it all the way up the double top and then finally got taken out with the new all time high at 4590, and they have now become bulls.  They won't short it now but buy the pullback, and that will limit the move.  Therefore this medium wave 4 down could easily end today and any move back up from it will be the medium wave 5 up... but it will be loaded with tons on new bulls that missed the entire medium wave 3 rally.

That will of course limit the upside for the medium wave 5 up... and that further opens the door for it to complete into the close today with a double top, or even a slightly lower high (called a "truncated wave).  If this plays out like this today, meaning down in the morning and back up in the close, then the large wave 1 up can end today, which means Friday can start the large wave 2 down.  It could easily be 50%, 61.8% or even 78.6%... which could all be over by Sunday night in the futures or Monday morning I think.

This will line up nicely with some chop in front of the FOMC on Wednesday to carve out some kind of degree wave 1 up and wave 2 down. After the FOMC they rip the market up as all the bears will view the Taper news as negative and short it (or maybe they don't Taper... who knows?).

Those trapped bears equals a big squeeze (again) as I don't think we have many bears left currently. But they will return if we drop deep enough over the next few days. Nothing has changed basically from what I said yesterday. Odds still favor the ELW5 up subdividing with 5 large waves inside it. we are currently in just the first large wave up, and inside it is likely 5 medium waves up. I think the medium wave 3 has topped at 4590 and we are starting the medium 4 down now.  Let's see how fast this plays out...

Have a blessed day.

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