ES Morning Update November 24th 2021


Big drop in December likely pushed out into early next year

I've labeled the Fibonacci Levels for the coming pullback, and this is all based on the rally up from the 10/4 low of 4278.94... which a common pullback amount would be about 50%, so that 4511.38 level is what I'm focused on.

I've discussed in the past many times that I think we are in an Extra Large Wave 5 up now from the 10/4 low and that it could subdivide many times or end with just one 5 wave series up. Since it's likely that the first 5 wave series up ended at the 4743.83 high the test for the bulls (assuming they want it to subdivide into more 5 and 3 waves series higher) is for this pullback to stop around the 50-61.8% level.

If it does that then I can safely label the first 5 wave series up just Large Wave 1 (LW1) inside Extra Large Wave 5 (ELW5) up... which is what I'm leaning toward now. I was leaning toward a 20% drop or so but I don't see that now because I think this ELW5 up is going to subdivide with 5 Large Waves inside it. That suggests the pullback will be LW2 down, and once it finishes we'll start LW3 up inside ELW5 up. Since LW1 up was 464.89 points and wave 3's are commonly 1.618% of wave 1's we could see 752.19 points up for LW3... which from the expected pullback low to 4511.38 for LW2 down would put the top for LW3 at 5263.57 into the first quarter of 2022.

Next would be a LW4 pullback and then a LW5 up to finish ELW5 up. That could finish it all.. I don't know? But since I really don't think we top until early 2023 for the presidential cycle pattern we could extend up again in another 5 wave series. Who knows for sure? Let's get this year out of the way first.

Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday.

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