ES Morning Update January 10th 2022


Revisiting this chart again with all the "possible" FP's on it we that it went a little higher then when I did the first chart back on December 26th, 2021, but it has finally rolled over and started the move down to the 441.65 "possible" FP level.

My thinking here is that it will hit that area around the 26th of this month where the next FOMC is at and a likely turning point.

After that low I think we rally up into mid-March for the "possible" FP of 496.36, (roughly 4982 SPX) and that should be the top in my opinion. Next would be the decline into June/July for the "possible" FP of 298.21 to put in the low. I'm not really sure if any of the "possible" FP's are real or not but on the SPX the current 50% retrace level from the March 2020 lows is around 3500, which really is more likely from an Elliottwave "typical" pullback for what I think will be an Extra Large Wave 2 down with the entire rally up that 2020 low being the Extra Large Wave 1 up.

I still think this all ends around the typical "presidential cycle" period of 2023/24. But if instead I'm wrong on the move up from the 2020 low being an ELW1 and it's the ending ELW5 from a decade or more bull market then it's possible that we put in the actual bottom into the 2023/24 period.

That would be the 70-80% down in total low (from roughly 5000 SPX) to match another 1837 and 1929 depression cycle low. I do believe this will happen again, but I'm unsure on whether we top into 2023/24 (like 6000+ SPX) or bottom? Either way I'll just play the hand that is given me. For now I think it's a bottom at the end of January and a new high into mid-March. Then about a 50% drop into June/July.

Side Note: It's 42 days from the 11/22/21 FP of 496.36 to the second time it appeared on 1/3/22, and half of that is 21 days, which from 1/3 is 1/24... so that could be a possible date for the low (FP at 441.65) as it's just prior to the FOMC meeting. Maybe some chop into the meeting but still a higher low and then up hard after for 42 days into March 7th to hit that 496.36 FP. Who knows but there could be a hidden code in the FP's? I only decided to cut the 42 days in half because down moves are usually much quicker and shorter in time then up moves... plus it's very close to where I'm guessing the low could be put in at because the FOMC is likely a key event and turn zone.

Short term... meaning today and/or tomorrow, we should bounce some.  The typical move would be around the 50% Fibonacci Level from the current all time high to the low on the SPX/SPY, which on the SPY is 471.29, and that's roughly 4729.21 as of the current ratio between them as the close Friday.

But we might not do more then just 38.2%, which is 469.23 and roughly 4708.54 on the SPX.  So, somewhere between those two levels is where I'd expect the bounce to reach before the next move down starts.  Have a blessed day.

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