ES Morning Update January 19th 2022


Yesterday there was a "possible" Fake Print on the SPY and the QQQ for basically the closing level as of last Friday. And while these are more commonly just some late fill and not real Fake Prints they still seem to be a magnet for the market to go back to within a few days. Therefore I've drawn it in as the bounce high for today (possibly tomorrow?) and labeled it Extra Tiny Wave 2 up.

Again, I wouldn't hold my breath on it being hit but if we start to rally steady today then I would wait for the close to see if it actually can go up that much. This market is full of wild swings both directions so I'm not ruling anything out right now. As for the ABC up for Small Wave 2... it's very likely dead now.

So I've label the 4739.50 high on 1/12 as the end of that Small Wave 2 up. From there we started Small Wave 3 down and we are currently subdividing into many smaller waves inside it right now. I think we ended the first Tiny Wave 1 down at the low last Friday and that strong bounce into the close and into early Monday was the Tiny Wave 2 up.

This leaves us in Tiny Wave 3 down right now, inside Small Wave 3 down, inside Medium Wave C down. Today should be up for Extra Tiny Wave 2 with a possibly 4650 area as a target high since that's around the FP's on the SPY and QQQ... but again, they could just be late fills, so don't hold me to it reaching that high. After the bounce today the next move down should be ET3, inside T3, inside S3... and that one should be even more in points then yesterday. If I had to guess I'd say 150 points compared to the 90 or so we just had.

Since Friday is OPEX that's where I'd expect to see T4 play out. Then next week we finish it all up with a downside target of possibly 441.65 on the SPY, which the last time I checked the ratio was around 4433 SPX. This could all be over with by the FOMC meeting next Wednesday and/or the end of this month on Monday the 31st.

For anyone that had trouble with the password yesterday I removed it so you can see the entire post now. I only put it on so the tw-it-ter bots couldn't read it and ban me again.  Have a blessed day.

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