ES Morning Update May 16th 2022


Nice up day on Friday, which I think continues for another day or so. Today might be a sideways consolidation day, or it could go up strong again, but more upside is still likely before we rollover again. On this chart you can clearly see the falling channel via the white dashed trendlines.

It's hit it twice on the upside, and while it might be an obvious short on the third hit I tend to think that's a little too obvious... meaning I think it will break-through it this time around. I'm actually looking for 4200-4300 before topping out and turning back down hard again.

This is the monthly options expiration week so odds favor a move up in the market, at least until the May VIX contract this Wednesday at 8am EST, and possibly all the way into Friday where all the other indexes expire. The point here is that this week is likely to crush the value all options, especially the puts on the indexes. It's called an IV crush where volatility drops, which is the VIX of course.

But the downside isn't over with, at least I don't think it is. We need to see some capitulation move happen and a big spike in the VIX, which I don't think we'll see this week due to the monthly OPEX happening. We'll take it one day at a time of course as anything can happen, it's just that the odds favor next week. For today, again I don't know. It could be a consolidation day or a strong move higher. Have a blessed day.

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