ES Morning Update August 26th 2022

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Nice push higher by the bulls yesterday. It was pretty much what I was looking for, but running a little faster then expected. Meaning I was looking for the early strength and afternoon weakness, but I thought it would carry into the close.

It didn't as it only lasted a few hours and then the bulls push up again into the close, which is fine with me as it doesn't change the bigger picture. This morning we are seeing weakness and the RSI on this 6hr chart is about midway between overbought and oversold, so it could be a mixed day with no clear direction.

Overall though I'm still bullish here as you know from all my other posts. The speed of this move up does have me re-thinking when a top could happen. I'll now have to estimate a little sooner is possible, like from next Friday September 2nd up to the 6th.

That's not what the Seasonality Chart says is normal but if you look at it closely you can see the "turns" have been a little early for the last several months at least. The period where it was off was from late February to early March as it kept going down into early March instead of bottoming in late February.

Once it turned back up though, and made that April high, it did get back on track. Calling the end of this 5th wave up will not be easy, and it's not suppose too be. Clearly SkyNet wants to trap as many bulls as possible and get all the bears squeezed out. Whether that is with a lower high around the falling red trendline in early September, or a higher high in the 4400-4500 zone is unknown.

My gut tells me the lower high is the plan as SkyNet doesn't want to give the bears such a great short entry up higher, and wants to keep the bulls long looking for that last spike higher. I could certainly be wrong but that's still what I think will happen. As for today I really don't see any edge for the bulls or bears, the charts are mixed. So a little up or a little down would be my best guess. Have a wonderful weekend.

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