ES Morning Update November 17th 2022


The market did pretty much what I thought it should do yesterday... chop sideways. The RSI on the 6hr chart, and lower time frames is drifting lower but the market is staying range-bound and is still in the 100-200 point zone , which as long as this continues the charts should be reset by new week.

So if the bears can hold this market in this range for a couple more days then by next Monday I think we could see a breakout to the upside. They really want to hold the rising red trendline in the big multi-month triangle.  It's around 3870 now, which is the best support for this current pullback I think.  It's just below the 50 SMA of 3893 (daily chart) on the SPX but on the ES it's all the way down to 3805... which I don't want to see personally.

Basically entering the 3800's is risky for the bulls and shouldn't be visited for long.  A pierce into the mid-high 3800's is fine but dropping out of it into the 3700's will get the bears fired up and let them out of trapped positions.  Plus the bulls will lose momentum.

It's like the bulls currently have the ball in the end zone now and the goal line is the falling red trendline and 200 SMA (daily) of 4072 (ES), and losing 3800 would put them back to the 50 yard line (3805 ES and 3793 SPX).  Not smart by the bulls.  Best to keep getting penalties on the bears to get another 1st down while staying within 20 yards of the goal line.  Meaning going sideways in a 100-200 point range for more days while charts reset from overbought to oversold.

As far as wave counts, nothing has changed from what I covered yesterday and the days prior this week. A big move is coming and currently it looks like it should be to the upside. Bulls need to get over the 200 day simple moving average, and if they can do that then odds will increase quite a bit that the lows are in now and we are off to a new all time high and more. Not much more to add. We are in a holding pattern until a breakout or breakdown happens. Have a blessed day.

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