ES Morning Update January 5th 2023


As expected nothing was added to the minutes by the Fed yesterday to cause a spark. So the market remains range-bound building a bear flag. The problem is that it's too obvious. Bear flags that take this long to form don't usually work from what I've noticed. And I can make a triangle out of it, so it's not really a bear flag anymore but a triangle pattern... which can break either way.

And from a technical point of view everything is neutral with no clear advantage for bulls or bears. My primary reason for leaning bullish is the amount of bearish sentiment and the Elliottwave count. The seasonality is still bullish too but going into the next week it starts to rollover and then it's fully bearish the second half of the month. We must just wait to see what happens next as a big move is coming but I don't know the direction. I lean bullish and I'm positioned that way, but I could certainly be wrong. Nothing more to add here so I'll end this update as a short one. Have a blessed day.

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