ES Morning Update January 18th 2023

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The market continues to chop sideways to make a bull flag. The longer it does that the stronger the move up will be. Again, I don't think we'll hit 4300 but 4200 is certainly "doable", which might only be hit in the premarket or afterhours session, which was like the big 80 point squeeze up to 4180 back on 12/13 when the CPI number came out before the open.

They ran the stops and gave it all back by the open that day. I don't expect a repeat of that with a such a large topping tail, but we might just see 4200 pierced briefly and never hit in the normal session.

I'm leaning more toward a top that hovers all day near the high but maybe off it by 20-30 points, with a close between 4150-4170 or so. Just a guess here based on my line of thinking that "they" will want to make everyone think it's NOT a triple top to short but instead a buy on a pullback because it went over 4200 and cleared the falling red trendline that has held the market down all of last year.

Traders need to think it's a bull market starting here and that the low is in now... but it won't be. The breakout will be a fakeout and the end of February will be much lower then most will expect. As for today, no change from yesterday. The chop continues until the short term charts cool off enough to let the bull flag play out. When I don't know? But late this week or early next seems likely from a technical point of view. Have a blessed day.

The 1950's...

The 2020's...

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